MCX Gold Targets Rs 155,000 Above Rs 150,000 Support - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
• Spot Gold is expected to hold above $4,300 and rebound toward the $4,500 level, driven by a pullback in the U.S. dollar and global treasury yields. Furthermore, dovish comments from Fed member John Williams and a pause in the crude oil price rally should ease rate hike bets and support bullion prices. The U.S. President’s statement that the latest attacks on Iran would be short-lived has also checked the oil rally. Following yesterday’s private payroll data, the probability of a September rate hike dropped to 63% from 67%, further supporting gold. Meanwhile, focus shifts to Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payroll data; any sign of moderation in the labor market could spark a further recovery rally in gold prices.
• MCX Gold October is expected to rise towards Rs 155,000 as long as it holds above Rs 150,000 level.
• MCX Silver December is expected to move higher towards Rs 240,000 as long as it trades above Rs 232,000. Only a move above Rs 240,000, it would rise towards Rs 243,000 level.
Base Metal Outlook
• Copper prices are expected to hold their ground and recover from yesterday’s lows, driven by a softer dollar and easing rate hike bets. Additionally, depleting inventory levels in the LME and raw material supply concerns should provide support to the metal. Short-term availability of copper in the LME remains tight, with the spot price trading at a premium of $100 per ton above three-month futures. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks and escalating tensions between the US and Iran could hurt global demand prospects and limit the upside.
• MCX Copper September is expected to consolidate in the range of Rs 1360 and Rs 1380 level. Only a move below Rs 1360 level, it will slip towards Rs 1350 level. On the other hand, a move above Rs 1380 it would turn bullish towards Rs 1390
• MCX Aluminum September is expected to hold support near Rs 342 level and rise towards Rs 348 - Rs 352. Middle East tensions would hurt supplies and provide support to prices. MCX Zinc September is likely to slip towards Rs 410 level as long as it trades under Rs 420 level.
Energy Outlook
• NYMEX crude futures are expected to remain volatile amid uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump stated that the latest attacks on Iran would be short-lived, though he indicated the US remains prepared for further strikes while reiterating claims that the US controls the strait. Despite the renewed hostilities, crude shipments continued to pass through Hormuz at an average of 8 to 10 million barrels a day. Meanwhile, shrinking global inventories of crude oil are expected to provide support.
• NYMEX crude oil is expected to rise towards $93 per barrel as long as it holds above $88 mark. MCX Crude oil September is expected to rise towards Rs 8800 as long as it holds above Rs 8300 level.
• MCX Natural gas September is expected to hold support near Rs 270 level and rise towards Rs 285 level.
Please refer disclaimer at https://secure.icicidirect.com/Content/StaticData/Disclaimer.html
SEBI Registration number INZ000183631
