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Gold

Gold prices surged by 1.33% to settle at ?144,430, supported by renewed safe-haven demand following fresh geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran and investor focus on comments from new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. Warsh noted that inflation risks have eased in recent weeks but reaffirmed the Federal Reserve’s commitment to restoring inflation to its 2% target. He also confirmed the Fed’s shift away from traditional forward guidance, although markets continue to anticipate further US interest-rate hikes this year amid a resilient labour market. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now assign nearly a 67% probability of a rate hike by September, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack also indicated support for tighter policy if inflation remains elevated. In the physical market, Indian gold traded at a premium for the first time in nearly six weeks as recent price corrections encouraged buying despite overall subdued demand. In contrast, Chinese bullion continued to trade at discounts, while the People’s Bank of China extended its gold reserve purchases for a 19th consecutive month, although net gold imports through Hong Kong declined 38% in May. London vault holdings increased 0.21% to 9,392 tonnes, valued at approximately $1.4 trillion. Meanwhile, the World Gold Council reported global gold ETF net outflows of $2 billion in May, reducing assets under management to $604 billion and total holdings to 4,121 tonnes, though year-to-date inflows remain close to $17 billion. Technically, Gold remains under fresh buying momentum, supported by a 2.75% rise in open interest, indicating strong participation. Immediate support is placed at ?141,465, followed by ?138,495, while resistance is seen at ?146,490. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards ?148,545.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 138495-148545.

*  Gold prices surged as investors parsed comments from new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and fresh US-Iran tensions.

*  Fed Chair Warsh says they are not happy with inflation above 2%

*  Fed’s Hammack said she may advocate for higher rates if inflation pressures don't moderate.

Silver

Silver prices advanced by 0.80% to settle at ?230,384, supported by improved investor sentiment after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stated that US inflation risks were easing. Softer inflation expectations were reinforced by weaker price components in the latest ISM PMI report and declining wholesale energy prices following the stabilization of Middle East tensions. Meanwhile, ADP data showed the US private sector added nearly 100,000 jobs in June, slightly below market expectations but still comfortably above this year's average, allowing the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance if necessary. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 53.9 in June from the preliminary estimate of 55.7, though it remained above the expansion threshold for the eleventh consecutive month, indicating continued but moderating manufacturing activity. On the physical market front, silver holdings in London vaults increased 0.6% to 27,611 tonnes, equivalent to approximately 920,378 silver bars, with a total value of $67.3 billion. In India, silver imports plunged 87% in value and 94% in volume year-on-year during May to the lowest level since February 2023 after the government imposed stricter import restrictions on nearly all silver products. Authorities also raised import duties on gold and silver to 15% from 6% to curb precious metal imports and ease pressure on foreign exchange reserves. Despite the sharp slowdown in imports, India had already recorded a historic $12 billion worth of silver imports during the 2025/26 financial year. Technically, Silver remains under fresh buying interest, with open interest rising marginally by 0.02%, indicating sustained market participation. Immediate support is seen at ?224,290, followed by ?218,190, while resistance is placed at ?234,700. A decisive breakout above this level may open the door for further gains toward ?239,010.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 218190-239010.

* Silver gained after Fed Chairman Warsh said inflation risks in the US were softening.

* Data aggregated by the ADP indicated that the US private sector added nearly 100,000 jobs in June

* US Manufacturing PMI was sharply revised down to 53.9 in June 2026, significantly below the preliminary estimate of 55.7.

Crude oil

Crude Oil prices declined by 1.39% to settle at ?6,525, as easing geopolitical concerns outweighed supportive inventory data. Market sentiment improved after constructive US-Iran discussions in Qatar raised hopes for reduced tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route. Tanker movements through the region have gradually recovered, while Iranian crude exports climbed above 40 million barrels following the removal of a US naval blockade. In addition, record Russian exports contributed to rising seaborne crude supplies, increasing concerns over global availability despite Tehran maintaining its demand for administrative control over the strategic waterway. Fundamental data presented a mixed picture. According to the American Petroleum Institute, US crude inventories declined by 6.072 million barrels during the latest week, extending an eleven-week cumulative draw of 59.4 million barrels in commercial stockpiles. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve also declined by 5.5 million barrels to 325.7 million barrels, while US crude production edged higher to 13.819 million barrels per day. Official EIA data also showed crude inventories fell by 6.088 million barrels to 412.1 million barrels, exceeding market expectations. However, gasoline inventories increased by 2.064 million barrels, distillate stocks rose by 3.064 million barrels, and net crude imports moved higher, highlighting softer demand for refined products. Meanwhile, OPEC crude production fell to 16.13 million barrels per day in May, the lowest monthly output in more than two decades, as disruptions to Iranian exports and restricted Gulf shipments offset planned OPEC+ production increases. Technically, Crude Oil remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 9.95%, indicating increased bearish participation. Immediate support is seen at ?6,466, followed by ?6,408, while resistance is placed at ?6,616. A sustained move above this level could trigger further recovery toward ?6,708.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6408-6708.

* Crude oil fell as traders assessed ongoing US–Iran peace negotiations and a gradual recovery in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

* Iranian exports surged past 40 million barrels following the removal of a US naval blockade

* US crude oil inventories fell by 6.072 million barrels, following a draw of 765,000 barrels in the previous week - API

Natural gas

Natural Gas prices declined by 1.67% to settle at ?306.8, as abundant supplies continued to outweigh supportive weather forecasts. Although meteorologists expect above-normal temperatures across the United States through July 13, boosting cooling demand, the market remained under pressure due to elevated production and comfortable inventory levels. According to LSEG, average dry gas output in the Lower 48 states remained around 110 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) during June, slightly above May levels and close to the record 110.6 bcfd reached in December 2025. Cooling Degree Days are projected to increase from 224 to 243, while total gas demand, including exports, is expected to rise from 105.8 bcfd this week to 109.2 bcfd next week. Fundamental indicators continued to reflect a well-supplied market. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 76 billion cubic feet (bcf) storage injection for the week ended June 19, broadly matching market expectations and leaving total inventories approximately 5.7% above the seasonal average. LNG export demand remained firm, with gas flows to the nine major US export terminals averaging 17.2 bcfd in June compared with 17.1 bcfd in May, although still below the record 18.8 bcfd reached in April. Looking ahead, the EIA projects US dry gas production to reach 111.0 bcfd in 2026 and 113.6 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is forecast to rise to 92.1 bcfd and 95.0 bcfd, respectively. LNG exports are also expected to increase steadily to 18.6 bcfd by 2027. Technically, Natural Gas witnessed long liquidation, with open interest declining 7.82%, indicating profit booking. Immediate support is placed at ?304.1, followed by ?301.4, while resistance is seen at ?310.7. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward ?314.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 301.4-314.6.

* Natural gas fell as ample supplies kept pressure on the market despite forecasts for hotter weather in the coming weeks.

* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states held at 110 billion cubic feet per day so far in June, slightly higher than May.

* EIA said last week that energy firms added a near-normal 76 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage.

Copper

Copper prices edged 0.15% higher to settle at ?1,272.25, supported by tighter global supply conditions after Chile’s copper production declined 12.9% year-on-year in May to 423,623 metric tons. Additional support came from concerns over potential US tariffs, which encouraged shipments into the United States and tightened availability in other regions. Market participants are also awaiting the outcome of the US Commerce Department’s review of the refined copper market and domestic refining capacity. Meanwhile, China’s industrial profit growth moderated to 21.1% in May from 24.7% in April, although profits for the January-May period remained strong with an 18.8% increase. Supply fundamentals remained supportive despite higher Chinese production. LME copper inventories declined to 339,100 tons, their lowest level since March, while Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks dropped 5.7% to 135,732 tons, the lowest since December. China’s refined copper production increased 2.2% year-on-year in May to 1.26 million metric tons, reflecting robust domestic output. The International Copper Study Group reported a 145,000 metric ton global refined copper deficit in April as consumption exceeded production. China’s unwrought copper imports also rose 3.2% year-on-year in April to 452,000 metric tons, supported by strong investment in power infrastructure, while copper concentrate imports declined 20%. Major investment banks remain constructive, with Goldman Sachs and Citi raising their medium-term copper price forecasts, citing persistent supply deficits and slower mine expansions. Technically, Copper is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 1.81%, indicating bearish positions are being unwound. Immediate support is seen at ?1,260, followed by ?1,247.6, while resistance is placed at ?1,280.8. A sustained breakout above this level could extend gains toward ?1,289.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1247.6-1289.2.

* Copper gained as support seen as copper output in Chile, fell 12.9% year-on-year in May to 423,623 metric tons.

* Support also seen as concerns over further tariffs had encouraged shipments to the U.S. and tightened availability elsewhere.

* Profit growth at China’s industrial firms eased to 21.1% in May from a year earlier, compared with a 24.7% rise in April.

Zinc

Zinc prices declined by 0.73% to settle at ?361.55, as traders booked profits following the recent rally driven by tightening mine supply. Despite the correction, the overall market remained supported by constrained near-term availability, with zinc remaining the only London Metal Exchange (LME) base metal to end June with its forward curve in backwardation, reflecting persistent supply tightness. Production disruptions at several key operations continued to underpin market sentiment. Glencore’s Kazzinc facility in Kazakhstan is operating below capacity following an explosion, while Nexa’s Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru is gradually resuming production after a fire. Concerns also remain over prolonged output disruptions at Boliden’s Garpenberg mine following a seismic event earlier this year. Fundamental data showed mixed market conditions. China’s zinc production increased 9.4% year-on-year in May, reflecting improved domestic smelting activity, while inventories at warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined marginally by 0.1%, indicating stable demand. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported that the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 26,500 metric tons in April from 56,300 metric tons in March, although the cumulative surplus for the first four months of the year widened to 145,000 metric tons. Japan’s Mitsui Mining and Smelting plans to increase refined zinc production by 3.2% during the first half of the 2026/27 financial year. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs expects the zinc market to remain in a modest surplus this year before shifting toward tighter conditions beyond 2027 as mine supply growth slows. Technically, Zinc is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 2.36%, indicating profit booking after recent gains. Immediate support is placed at ?359.2, followed by ?356.7, while resistance is seen at ?364.1. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward ?366.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 356.7-366.5.

* Zinc dropped on profit booking after prices gained due to tighter mine supply.

* U.S. job openings edged up to a two-year high in May, suggesting labour demand remained resilient despite softer hiring.

* China's zinc production in May rose 9.40% year-on-year to 64,000 metric tons.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices eased by 0.12% to settle at ?329.20, as a stronger US dollar and expectations of recovering Middle East supplies weighed on market sentiment. The metal extended its sharp June correction after posting its steepest monthly decline since 2008, following a strong rally during March-May driven by geopolitical supply disruptions. Improved prospects for trade through the Strait of Hormuz after easing US-Iran tensions have increased expectations of higher aluminium shipments from the Persian Gulf, which accounts for nearly 10% of global aluminium production. At the same time, expectations of higher US interest rates strengthened the dollar, reducing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities. Fundamental data presented a mixed outlook. China's official Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.3 in June, indicating continued expansion in industrial activity. However, rising aluminium production in China and Indonesia added to supply concerns. China's aluminium output increased 1.7% year-on-year in May to 3.89 million metric tons, while production during the first five months rose 3.5% to 19.22 million metric tons. The International Aluminium Institute (IAI) reported global primary aluminium production declined 1.7% year-on-year in May to 6.15 million tonnes, while inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 2.7%, reflecting steady physical demand. China’s aluminium imports increased 6.9% in March, and exports rose 5.7% in May. Goldman Sachs forecasts a 720,000-tonne global aluminium deficit in 2026 due to slower recovery of smelting operations across West Asia. Technically, Aluminium remains under long liquidation, with open interest declining 5.63%, indicating profit booking. Immediate support is placed at ?326.1, followed by ?323.1, while resistance is seen at ?331.0. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward ?332.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 323.1-332.9.

* Aluminium fell pressured by a stronger US dollar and expectations of renewed metal shipments from the Middle East.

* Additional downward pressure came from rising production in China, as well as increased output from smelters in Indonesia.

* China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.3 in June 2026 from 50.0 in the previous month.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices rebounded by 1.92% to settle at ?17,512, supported by short covering after recent declines driven by increased farmer selling during the peak harvest season. Higher arrivals across major mandis had temporarily outpaced demand, while substantial inventories of around 1.13 lakh bags in Warangal kept buyers cautious. Farmers who had previously withheld stocks in anticipation of better prices have gradually increased sales, adding near-term pressure. Export demand also remained mixed, with fresh buying from Europe and the United States slowing during the week, while quality concerns due to Rhizome Rot in some arrivals forced sellers to accept lower prices. Despite short-term supply pressure, medium-term fundamentals remain supportive. Carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, significantly lower than more than 20 lakh bags recorded last season, indicating a tighter availability buffer. Demand for Integrated Pest Management (IPM) certified turmeric from the European Union has remained firm, while active procurement by Bangladesh for finger-variety turmeric has supported market sentiment in Andhra Pradesh. The advance of the southwest monsoon and forecasts of above-normal rainfall across peninsular India have improved prospects for the next sowing season, encouraging expectations of higher acreage during 2026-27. India’s turmeric exports remained stable in April, rising 0.6% year-on-year to 15,039 tonnes, with strong growth in shipments to China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, and Japan offsetting lower exports to the UAE and the United States. In the spot market, Nizamabad turmeric prices increased 1.15% to ?16,416.85. Technically, Turmeric is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing 3.17%, reflecting renewed market participation. Immediate support is placed at ?17,110, followed by ?16,706, while resistance is seen at ?17,758. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward ?18,002.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16706-18002.

* Turmeric gained on short covering after prices amid increased selling pressure from farmers seeking to liquidate stocks.

* While cumulative exports are up, immediate fresh orders from Europe and the U.S. slowed.

* The Southwest Monsoon's advance into Southern India has improved sentiment for the sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16416.85 Rupees gained by 1.15 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices eased by 0.29% to settle at ?20,500, as traders booked profits following the recent rally. Despite the marginal decline, market sentiment remained supported by tightening availability of premium-quality export-grade bold seeds. While overall crop availability remains comfortable, supplies of high-purity cumin are declining more rapidly than expected. Daily arrivals in key markets such as Unjha and Rajasthan have slowed considerably after the peak harvest season, allowing stockists to exercise greater pricing control. Unseasonal rainfall, strong winds, and dust storms in major producing regions also affected crop quality by increasing moisture levels, widening the price gap between average-grade and premium export-quality cumin. Fundamental factors continue to provide underlying support. Farmers and large stockholders are releasing quality stocks gradually rather than aggressively selling, limiting spot market availability. Demand from domestic processors remains steady, although purchases are restricted to immediate requirements instead of large forward buying. Export demand has improved for residue-compliant and premium-quality lots, with buyers from Europe and North America returning to the market. Industry estimates suggest India's cumin production may decline to around 90–92 lakh bags this season from 1.10 crore bags last year due to lower sowing acreage. Weather-related production concerns have also reduced output estimates in China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan. India’s jeera exports declined 18% year-on-year to 16,254 tonnes in April, mainly because shipments to the UAE dropped sharply. However, exports to Morocco, the United States, Mexico, and Brazil recorded strong growth, partially offsetting weaker demand from traditional markets. In the spot market, Unjha prices declined 0.26% to ?20,551.65. Technically, Jeera is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 5.44%, indicating profit booking. Immediate support is placed at ?20,390, followed by ?20,270, while resistance is seen at ?20,660. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward ?20,810.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20270-20810.

* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid a rapid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* Daily arrivals across major trading spots have begun to taper off significantly.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20551.65 Rupees dropped by -0.26 percent.

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