IGI Logo

Gold

Gold prices edged higher by 0.11% to settle at 153,091, supported by easing expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike later this year. Market sentiment improved after an interim U.S.–Iran peace agreement helped reduce geopolitical tensions and lowered concerns over energy-driven inflation. The agreement extends the existing ceasefire and facilitates the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, easing supply concerns in global energy markets. Lower oil prices have subsequently reduced inflationary pressures, leading traders to reassess the likelihood of tighter monetary policy in the United States. Economic data from the U.S. also provided support to gold. Housing starts declined sharply by 15.4% in May to an annualized rate of 1.177 million units, the weakest level since May 2020 and significantly below market expectations. The weaker housing data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more cautious approach. Market participants have reduced the probability of a December rate hike to 58%, down from nearly 70% previously, while attention remains focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision under Chair Kevin Warsh. Physical gold demand showed mixed trends across major consuming nations. In India, jewellery demand improved modestly as softer prices encouraged buying, although overall retail confidence remained subdued. Chinese premiums eased, reflecting balanced demand conditions. Meanwhile, global gold ETFs recorded net outflows of $2 billion in May, primarily driven by Asia and North America, although year-to-date inflows remain strongly positive. Central bank demand continues to provide long-term support, with 45% of reserve managers surveyed by the World Gold Council expecting to increase gold holdings over the next year. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 0.84% while prices advanced. Gold is holding support near 152,445, with further support at 151,800. On the upside, resistance is seen at 153,650, and a sustained move above this level could open the door for a test of 154,210.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 151800-154210.

*  Gold prices rose as expectations of an ‌interest rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve this year eased.

*  Gold demand from central banks will slow down by 15% year-on-year in 2026 in tonnage terms.

*  Markets see 58% chance of rate hike in December

Silver

Silver prices declined by 0.54% to settle at 250,105 as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision and awaited further clarity on the proposed U.S.-Iran peace agreement. Although prices moved lower, downside pressure remained limited as expectations of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz helped ease concerns over an energy-driven inflation shock, reducing the likelihood of aggressive monetary tightening. The agreement is expected to be formally signed later this week, with U.S. authorities indicating that normal shipping operations through the strategic waterway will resume. Recent U.S. economic data presented a mixed picture. Export prices increased by 1.3% in May, slightly exceeding expectations, while housing starts plunged 15.4% to an annualized rate of 1.177 million units, the weakest level since May 2020. Building permits also declined 0.7% to 1.413 million units, indicating softer momentum in the housing sector and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may remain cautious regarding future rate increases. Fundamental demand indicators for silver remain supportive. China’s silver imports surged to a record 836 metric tons in March, nearly three times the historical average for the month. Strong retail investment demand, driven by elevated gold prices, and aggressive stockpiling by photovoltaic manufacturers ahead of tax policy changes significantly boosted imports. Elevated domestic premiums also encouraged global shipments into China. In contrast, India’s silver imports plunged 87% year-on-year in May to the lowest level in over three years following stricter import regulations and higher duties on precious metals. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 2.37% while prices moved lower. Silver has immediate support at 246,800, with further downside support at 243,495. On the upside, resistance is seen at 253,155, and a sustained breakout above this level could lead to a test of 256,205.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 243495-256205.

* Silver dropped as markets await the Fed's monetary policy decision, as well as further details on the US-Iran agreement.

* India's silver imports plunged 87% in May from a year earlier to their lowest level in more than three years

* US housing starts fell 15.4% MoM in May 2026, the lowest since May 2020.

Crude oil 

Crude oil prices declined sharply by 5.82% to settle at 7,175 as markets reacted to improving prospects for the restoration of oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and continued uncertainty surrounding the preliminary agreement aimed at ending the U.S.-Iran conflict. Investor sentiment weakened after U.S. President Donald Trump announced an interim deal to end the war, while reports indicated that Iran and the United States would resume negotiations in Switzerland to work toward a comprehensive agreement. The possibility of normalized oil flows from the Gulf region significantly reduced geopolitical risk premiums that had previously supported crude prices. Major financial institutions revised their oil outlooks lower following the agreement. Goldman Sachs reduced its fourth-quarter Brent crude forecast to $80 per barrel from $90 and lowered its 2027 average forecast to $75. Similarly, Morgan Stanley cut its fourth-quarter Brent forecast by $15 to $80 per barrel, citing expectations of a gradual recovery in Gulf oil production and tanker movements. Both institutions anticipate a faster-than-expected normalization of exports as regional tensions ease. Despite the decline in prices, U.S. inventory data provided some underlying support. According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels, significantly exceeding market expectations for a 4 million-barrel draw. Crude stocks at Cushing also declined, while refinery utilization rose to 95.3%. However, gasoline inventories increased slightly, reflecting mixed demand conditions. Distillate inventories also posted a modest decline during the reporting period. On the supply side, OPEC production fell to its lowest level in more than two decades during May, primarily due to disruptions in Iranian exports and reduced shipments from Gulf producers. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 27.57% while prices declined. Crude oil has immediate support at 6,989, followed by 6,803. Resistance is seen at 7,505, and a move above this level could trigger further gains toward 7,835.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6803-7835.

* Crude oil fell as markets weighed prospects for a resumption of supplies through Hormuz alongside weaker ‌physical demand

* OPEC again lowers 2026 global oil demand growth forecast

* Goldman Sachs lowers Q4 2026 average Brent crude oil price forecast to $80/bbl

Natural gas

Natural gas prices advanced by 3.06% to settle at 306.6, supported primarily by improving LNG export activity and expectations of stronger weather-related demand. Market sentiment strengthened after flows to U.S. LNG export terminals increased 13.2% week-on-week, reaching a six-week high of 19.3 billion cubic feet per day. Additionally, forecasts for rising temperatures through early July are expected to increase cooling demand, boosting natural gas consumption from the power generation sector. Despite the price recovery, abundant domestic supplies continue to limit the upside potential. U.S. natural gas inventories stood at 2.686 trillion cubic feet as of June 5, approximately 6% above the five-year seasonal average, highlighting comfortable supply conditions. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that utilities injected 108 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the latest week, exceeding market expectations of a 99 billion cubic feet build. The injection was also above the five-year average increase of 95 billion cubic feet for the same period, indicating continued strength in supply fundamentals. Looking ahead, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects both natural gas production and consumption to reach record levels in the coming years. Dry gas production is expected to increase from 107.7 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to 111.0 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 113.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2027. Domestic demand is also forecast to rise steadily, supported by growing power-sector consumption and expanding industrial activity. Furthermore, LNG exports are projected to climb from a record 15.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to 17.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, providing a significant source of demand growth. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 8% while prices moved higher. Natural gas has immediate support at 299, followed by 291.5. Resistance is seen at 311.2, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 315.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 291.5-315.9.

* Natural gas prices rose supported by signs of a rebound in LNG export activity.

* Flows to LNG export terminals increased 13.2% week-on-week, reaching a six-week high of 19.3 bcfd.

* Expectations of stronger cooling demand as temperatures rise into early July also supported prices.

Copper

Copper prices edged lower by 0.23% to settle at 1,337.6, as investors balanced easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East against concerns over weaker economic indicators from China. Market sentiment improved after reports that the United States and Iran reached a preliminary agreement aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The resulting decline in oil prices eased concerns about inflation and aggressive monetary tightening, providing some support to industrial metals. However, softer Chinese retail sales data and broader concerns about demand growth limited gains in copper. Underlying market fundamentals remained relatively supportive. Continued speculation regarding potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper has created a premium for metal in the United States, encouraging imports and tightening supply availability in other regions. In addition, China's central bank has instructed commercial banks to increase lending activity, highlighting Beijing's ongoing efforts to support economic growth and infrastructure investment. China's copper demand remains robust, supported by strong spending on power grid projects, which rose 37% year-on-year during the first quarter. Unwrought copper imports increased 3.2% year-on-year in April to a seven-month high despite record domestic refined copper production. Supply-side developments also continue to influence the market outlook. Goldman Sachs and Citi have both raised their medium-term copper price forecasts, citing tighter mine supply growth, stronger U.S. imports, and persistent global supply deficits. Meanwhile, concerns remain over production constraints at major mining operations, including Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula. Although the International Copper Study Group expects the global refined copper market to remain in surplus during 2026 and 2027, slower mine output growth and geopolitical uncertainties continue to provide support to prices. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 4.54% while prices moved lower. Copper has immediate support at 1,330.6, followed by 1,323.6. Resistance is seen at 1,342.3, and a breakout above this level could extend gains toward 1,347.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1323.6-1347.

* Copper dropped as Middle East uncertainties still lingered despite a preliminary U.S.-Iran deal.

* However, risk appetite improved following reports that the US and Iran reached an agreement to end the conflict.

* China, retail sales contracted for the first time in over three years, shrinking 0.6% in May.

Zinc 

Zinc prices declined by 1% to settle at 366.2 as concerns over weakening demand in China weighed on market sentiment. Fresh economic data from China showed retail sales contracted by 0.6% in May, marking the first decline in more than three years, while fixed-asset investment fell 4.1% during the first five months of the year, significantly worse than market expectations. These indicators raised concerns about the strength of industrial and construction demand in the world's largest metals consumer. However, industrial production rose 4.5% year-on-year in May, exceeding expectations and providing some support to the broader metals market. Despite the weaker demand outlook, losses in zinc were limited by tightening supply conditions. Several recent supply disruptions have heightened concerns over refined zinc availability. Nexa Resources temporarily suspended operations at its Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru following a fire that damaged processing infrastructure. Additionally, Glencore-owned Kazzinc continued operating at reduced capacity after an explosion affected its zinc and lead facilities in Kazakhstan. These incidents came at a time when the International Lead and Zinc Study Group had already projected a refined zinc market deficit for the year. Further support came from low inventories and ongoing mine supply challenges. However, gains remained capped by expectations of rising production from several producers. Sweden’s Boliden plans to resume production at its Garpenberg mine during the second quarter, while Japan’s Mitsui Mining and Smelting expects refined zinc output to increase by 3.2% in the first half of the 2026/27 financial year. Meanwhile, global zinc market data showed the surplus narrowed significantly in March, indicating improving market balance. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 7.16% while prices moved lower. Zinc has immediate support at 364.0, followed by 361.9. Resistance is seen at 369.4, and a move above this level could extend gains toward 372.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 361.9-372.7.

* Zinc dropped amid signs of weak demand in China amid falling retail sales data.

* China, retail sales contracted for the first time in over three years, shrinking 0.6% in May.

* The World Bank cut its global growth outlook for 2026 due to the war and warned of a further decline if energy supply disruptions worsen

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged higher by 0.18% to settle at 357.45, supported by ongoing concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East. Market sentiment remained firm as damage to regional aluminium smelting facilities is expected to delay a full recovery in production. Industry participants continue to assess the impact of operational disruptions at major Gulf producers, including EGA and Bahrain’s ALBA, while Guinea’s tighter controls on bauxite exports have further increased concerns about raw material availability. These factors helped underpin aluminium prices despite expectations that some Middle Eastern supply could gradually return to the market. Market indicators reflected improving availability expectations. The London Metal Exchange cash contract moved into a discount against the three-month contract, reaching levels last seen before the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict. This shift suggests traders are anticipating a gradual normalization of supply conditions over the coming months. However, J.P. Morgan maintains a constructive long-term outlook and expects aluminium prices to strengthen further, projecting average prices of around $3,750 per metric ton in the second half of the year. In China, aluminium market fundamentals remained supportive. Imports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products rose 6.9% year-on-year in March, while first-quarter imports increased 1.6%. Domestic production also continued to expand, with May output rising 1.7% year-on-year to 3.89 million metric tons, marking the ninth consecutive month of growth. For the first five months of the year, production increased 3.5% to 19.22 million metric tons. Additionally, Chinese aluminium exports rose 5.7% in May and more than 10% during the January-May period. However, inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses remain elevated, reaching their highest level since March 2020, which may limit upside momentum. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 8.1% while prices moved higher. Aluminium has immediate support at 352.2, followed by 346.8. Resistance is seen at 360.8, and a breakout above this level could extend gains toward 364.0.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 346.8-364.

* Aluminium recovered losses as damage to aluminium smelting facilities, means production is unlikely to ramp up quickly.

* China aluminium production up 1.7 % to 3.89 mln metric tons in May

* Expectations of fresh aluminium flows pushed the LME cash contract from a premium over the three-month forward to a discount.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices gained 1.63% to settle at 16,918, supported by active buying interest despite increased arrivals during the peak harvest season. Market sentiment remained mixed as farmers accelerated stock liquidation to generate funds for upcoming Kharif sowing activities. Higher daily arrivals across major mandis temporarily increased supply availability, while substantial inventories, estimated at around 1.13 lakh bags in Warangal, continued to keep buyers cautious. Farmers who had previously held stocks in anticipation of higher prices have increasingly entered the market, contributing to greater near-term supply. Demand fundamentals showed a mixed trend. Export demand remained stable on a cumulative basis, although fresh orders from key markets such as Europe and the United States slowed during the week. Turmeric exports in March 2026 declined 16.8% year-on-year to 12,559.72 tonnes, reflecting softer overseas demand and rising global competition. However, exports improved by 10.14% compared to February, indicating some recovery in buying activity and shipment volumes. For the full April-March period, exports remained nearly unchanged from the previous year, highlighting resilient long-term demand despite short-term fluctuations. Supply-side developments continue to influence market direction. Increased arrivals of late-harvested, high-moisture turmeric have resulted in discounting of average-quality produce. Reports of rhizome rot and quality deterioration in certain regions have also pressured sellers. However, lower carry-forward stocks, estimated at around 15 lakh bags compared to more than 20 lakh bags last season, continue to provide underlying support. Additionally, growing demand for IPM-certified turmeric from the European Union and steady procurement inquiries from Bangladesh have helped maintain positive sentiment. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising by 10.95% while prices gained 272 rupees. Turmeric has immediate support at 16,730, followed by 16,540. Resistance is seen at 17,030, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 17,140.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16540-17140.

* Turmeric prices gained on short covering after prices dropped amid increased selling pressure from farmers.

* While cumulative exports are up, immediate fresh orders from Europe and the U.S. slowed.

* The Southwest Monsoon's advance into Southern India has improved sentiment for the sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15933.3 Rupees gained by 1.26 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices surged by 4.17% to settle at 20,850, supported by tightening availability of premium-quality supplies and renewed export interest from international buyers. Demand from European and North American importers has improved, particularly for residue-compliant and high-specification lots, while domestic industrial processors have also increased procurement at current price levels. Market sentiment was further strengthened by concerns over quality losses following unseasonal thunderstorms and hailstorms in parts of Rajasthan during the harvest period. Weather-related disruptions delayed drying and processing activities, raising concerns about the availability of high-grade produce and creating temporary supply gaps in the market. Despite the strong price recovery, gains were partially capped by higher arrivals of the new crop from major producing regions. Favorable harvesting conditions in northwestern India accelerated crop arrivals, leading to increased supplies in key markets. Farmers have also been actively liquidating stocks to generate funds for the upcoming Kharif sowing season. Daily arrivals at Unjha mandi have stabilized at elevated levels near 28,500 bags, providing adequate near-term availability. However, market participants note that the share of premium "Sortex" grade carryover stocks is lower than last year, supporting stronger prices for quality produce. Fundamentally, production prospects remain supportive for prices. Estimates indicate that India's cumin production may decline to around 90-92 lakh bags this season from 1.10 crore bags last year, reflecting lower acreage and reduced yields, particularly in Gujarat. Reports of blight disease in some growing regions have also affected crop quality and output. Export performance remains mixed, with March shipments declining 15.54% year-on-year, although exports improved significantly compared to February, indicating a gradual recovery in international demand. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising by 8.18% while prices advanced sharply. Jeera has immediate support at 20,250, followed by 19,660. Resistance is seen at 21,250, and a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains toward 21,660.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19660-21660.

* Jeera prices gained as availability of premium quality, bold seeds is shrinking.

* Farmers are actively offloading stocks to generate liquidity for the upcoming Kharif planting season, adding continuous sell-side pressure.

* Daily arrivals at the Unjha mandi have stabilized at high level, approx. 28,500 bags, creating a visible supply glut that weighed on prices.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20480.45 Rupees gained by 0.57 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views