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Gold

Gold edged 0.54% higher to 130,462, supported by persistent expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate cut, with markets pricing in nearly a 90% probability of a 25-bps reduction. Softer US economic data reinforced the dovish outlook, while speculation that Kevin Hassett may replace Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair added to rate-cut optimism. Investors now await the delayed September PCE report for further guidance. US Treasury yields also eased slightly following a global bond sell-off, offering additional support to bullion prices. Central bank demand remained a strong pillar, with a net 53 tonnes added in October, the highest monthly increase since November 2024. Poland and Brazil led purchases, while China extended its buying streak to 12 consecutive months, lifting its reserves to 2,304 tonnes. Russia was the only major seller, trimming 3 tonnes. However, high global prices weighed on retail demand across Asia. In India, wedding-season buying remained muted, with dealers offering discounts up to $18/oz. In China, the removal of VAT exemptions on gold purchases dampened appetite, leading to mixed premiums and discounts. Meanwhile, Singapore and Hong Kong saw modest premiums in the physical market. Technically, gold is in short covering, with open interest falling 2.21% to 13,011. Support lies at 129,910, with further downside risk to 129,365, while resistance is at 131,200, and a breakout could push prices toward 131,945.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 129365-131945.

* Gold rose as investors held on to expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate cut.

* Private businesses in the US cut 32K jobs in November 2025, following an upwardly revised 47K gain in October.

* Central banks added a net 53 tonnes of Gold to reserves in October, marking the strongest monthly increase since November 2024.

Silver

Silver extended its powerful rally, rising 0.41% to 182,352, as prices continued to hover near record highs, with the metal now up nearly 100% year-to-date. The surge is being driven by tightening global supply, exceptionally strong investment demand, and expectations of deeper US Federal Reserve rate cuts. Silver-backed ETFs have added nearly 200 tons, pushing total holdings to their highest level since 2022, while a record volume of silver flowed into London last month to address severe market tightness. This shift has drained inventories in other hubs, with Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks falling to their lowest level in a decade. Chinese exports surged to a record 660 tons in October, exacerbating domestic shortages, while Shanghai Gold Exchange volumes also slid to nine-year lows. Despite the heavy inflows into London, liquidity concerns persist, reflected in still-elevated borrowing costs. London vault holdings rose 6.8% to 26,255 tons, valued at $41.3 billion, but the market remains sensitive to supply disruptions. Meanwhile, over 1,568 tons have exited Comex warehouses since early October, though overall US inventories remain higher YoY due to tariff-related uncertainty. Technically, silver is in a fresh buying phase, with open interest rising 0.34% to 13,783, confirming renewed long buildup. Immediate support stands at 180,645, with deeper downside seen at 178,940. Resistance is positioned at 184,400, and a breakout above this level may drive prices toward 186,450, sustaining the bullish momentum.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 178940-186450.

* Silver hits record highs and up about 100% year-to-date amid tightening supply and expectations of deeper Fed rate cuts.

* Data showed silver-backed ETFs added about 200 tons, lifting total holdings to the highest level since 2022 amid robust demand.

* Recent US data indicated a modest slowdown in economic activity, bolstering speculations of another 25-bps reduction next week.

Crude oil

Crude oil edged 0.89% higher to 5356, supported by renewed geopolitical tension after Russia confirmed that its talks with US officials failed to produce any compromise on a potential Ukraine peace deal. This setback, combined with recent Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s Black Sea oil infrastructure, revived supply-side concerns and added a risk premium to prices. The API reported a 2.48-million-barrel rise in crude stocks, along with significant builds in gasoline (3.14 million barrels) and distillates (2.88 million barrels), highlighting near-term inventory pressure. OPEC+ maintained its production levels for Q1 2026, signaling caution amid fears of an oversupplied market. The group also approved a new mechanism to reassess members' maximum production capacity starting 2027. Meanwhile, US oil production continued to defy weak prices, hitting a fresh record of 13.84 million bpd in September, supported by strong output from New Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico. The latest EIA data showed US crude inventories rising by 0.574 million barrels, contrary to expectations of a draw, while gasoline stocks surged by 4.52 million barrels. Distillate inventories, however, declined slightly by 0.293 million barrels. Technically, crude oil is seeing short covering, with open interest falling 2.26% to 13,294 while prices gained 47. Support lies at 5299, with deeper downside potential toward 5241. Resistance is now placed at 5400, and a breakout above could extend gains toward 5443.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5241-5443.

* Crude oil prices climbed after Russia said talks with U.S. officials in Moscow failed to reach a compromise on a potential Ukraine peace deal.

* Recent Ukrainian attacks on oil export sites on the Russian Black Sea coast have highlighted the geopolitical concerns stemming from the war.

* OPEC+ agreed to leave oil output levels unchanged for the first quarter of 2026

Natural gas

Natural gas surged 2.53% to 450, supported by strong export demand and tightening winter fundamentals. European nations reaffirmed their commitment to fully phase out Russian LNG by end-2027, boosting demand for alternative suppliers. This shift coincided with a significant jump in US LNG exports, which rose 40% year-on-year in November to 10.7 million tonnes, even as producers continued to ramp up output. Weather forecasts also contributed to bullish sentiment, with colder-than-normal temperatures expected across the Northeast and Great Lakes, lifting early-season heating demand. The latest EIA storage report reinforced the strength in fundamentals, showing an unexpected withdrawal of 11 bcf for the week ending November 21, compared with expectations of just a 1 bcf draw. This marked the second consecutive draw of the season and brought total storage to 3,935 bcf, now 0.8% below last year but still 4.2% above the five-year average. The EIA’s STEO projected that both US natural gas production and consumption will climb to fresh record highs in 2025, with dry gas output seen rising to 107.1 bcfd next year and LNG exports expanding to 14.7 bcfd, before reaching 16.3 bcfd in 2026.  Technically, the market is in fresh buying territory, with open interest jumping 20.92% to 28,630 alongside the price rise of 11.1. Natural gas has support at 440.7, with deeper downside targets near 431.5 if this level breaks. On the upside, resistance is seen at 456.8, and a sustained move above this level could open the path toward 463.7, extending the positive momentum.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 431.5-463.7.

* Natural gas rose amid a backdrop of soaring export demand.

* European countries extended their shun of Russian natural gas and confirmed the complete phase out of Russian LNG by the end of 2027.

* Demand was also underpinned by forecasts of a cold front at the start of the North American winter, led by lower temperatures in the Northeast and Great lakes.

Copper

Copper prices surged 2.82% to 1076.55, driven by deepening global supply concerns and strong speculative interest amid a tightening market. Traders have been redirecting significant volumes of copper to the US to pre-empt potential import tariffs, which has further strained supplies in other major hubs. The market has been rattled by a series of disruptions across key mining regions—from Indonesia and Chile to the Democratic Republic of Congo—intensifying fears of a looming deficit. Ongoing supply negotiations between Chinese smelters and miners for 2026 remain tense, with miners holding the advantage due to negative TC/RCs, forcing smelters to effectively pay miners amid tight concentrate availability. China’s top smelters have already announced plans to cut production by over 10% in 2026 to counter overcapacity and collapsing processing fees. Meanwhile, Chile’s October copper output fell 7% year-on-year to 458,405 tons, highlighting further supply pressures. Inventories continue to tighten globally—Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks dropped 11.46% last week, and LME warehouse inventories are down 42% this year, amplifying concerns of persistent scarcity outside the US. Market balance indicators show mixed signals: the global refined copper market registered a 51,000-ton deficit in September after a surplus in August, while the first nine months still reflect a moderate surplus.  Technically, copper is under short covering, with open interest down 1.01% to 8,146 as prices gained 29.5. Support stands at 1056.1, with deeper downside at 1035.6, whereas resistance is positioned at 1090.9, and a breakout could pave the way to 1105.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1035.6-1105.2.

* Copper rose as global supply concerns underpinned investor appetite that’s critical to the green transition.

* Chinese smelters and miners are locked in supply talks for 2026 that are proving difficult as miners hold the upper hand in negotiations.

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 11.46% from last Friday, the exchange said.

Zinc

Zinc prices climbed 0.98% to 309, supported by tightening availability of metal in LME-registered warehouses and improving macro sentiment. Eurozone business activity expanded at its fastest pace in two-and-a-half years, while growing expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut and a softer dollar further fueled buying interest. The global zinc market surplus narrowed sharply to 20,300 tons in September from 32,700 tons in August, according to ILZSG data, adding fundamental support. Soft U.S. economic indicators—including weak retail sales and subdued consumer confidence—reinforced the likelihood of a December rate cut, aiding overall sentiment. China’s zinc concentrate production is expected to decline in December due to scheduled maintenance shutdowns at mines in Central and Southwest China, with one site set to reduce output by around 700 mt in metal content. SHFE zinc inventories fell 4.42% from last Friday, reflecting tightening near-term availability. However, upside momentum faced resistance as LME warehouse stocks rose to 49,925 tons, marking a 47% surge since early November, slightly easing global supply concerns. China’s refined zinc production showed mixed trends: September output fell 4% MoM but surged over 20% YoY, with cumulative January–September production up nearly 9% YoY.  Technically, zinc is in fresh buying, with open interest rising 1.66% to 3,182 as prices gained 3. Support lies at 307.3, with a break opening downside to 305.4, while resistance is seen at 310.7, and a move above could lift prices toward 312.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 305.4-312.2.

* Zinc rose amid tighter availability of metal in warehouses registered with the London Metal Exchange.

* Data showed business activity in the euro zone expanded in November at its fastest pace in two and a half years.

* Growing expectations of an interest rate cut by Fed as well as a weaker dollar also supported the upward momentum.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices climbed 1.33% to 278.25, supported by tightening supply conditions and expectations of firmer demand. Market sentiment improved amid reports that Chinese smelters are approaching government-imposed capacity ceilings, limiting additional output. Inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 6.82% from last Friday, reinforcing the supply-tightness narrative. On the global front, primary aluminium production in October rose only 0.6% y/y to 6.294 million tonnes, indicating restrained supply growth. Japanese port stocks fell 3.6% in October to 329,100 tonnes, while production disruptions—from Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter to Alcoa’s closure of the Kwinana refinery—added to supply pressure. Century Aluminium’s output cuts further tightened the market. Trade data from China painted a robust demand picture: October imports of unwrought aluminium and products rose 10.4% y/y to 350,000 tonnes, following a strong 35.4% surge in September. Total imports for Jan–Oct reached 3.36 million tonnes, up 6.1% y/y. Exports in July also climbed to 542,000 tonnes, signalling strong global order flows. Outlook-wise, investment banks remain divided. Goldman Sachs cut its long-term price view to $2,350/t for Q4 2026, citing expectations of a modest surplus, while ANZ raised its near-term target to $2,900/t on improving manufacturing and construction demand. Fresh buying is visible with open interest rising 1.73% to 3,416. Aluminium has support at 276.6, below which 274.9 may be tested. Resistance stands at 279.4, and a breakout above this could push prices toward 280.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 274.9-280.5.

* Aluminium prices gained amid concerns that Chinese smelters are nearing government-imposed capacity limits, constraining supply.

* China's Nov Alumina output falls 4.44% mom as environmental curbs cut northern operations

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 6.82% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday slipped 1.36% to 14,486, pressured by expectations of higher acreage this season following favourable rains. Preliminary estimates suggest a 15–20% rise in turmeric acreage, as farmers shift from less profitable crops. For the 2024–25 season, the area under turmeric is reported at 3.30 lakh hectares, up 10% from the previous year. This expansion has weighed on sentiment; however, the downside remains limited due to emerging supply concerns. Heavy rains in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and especially Nanded have damaged standing crops, with Nanded alone reporting losses of around 15% of the cultivated area. Continuous rainfall in Erode has triggered disease outbreaks and increased humidity, making storage difficult. Additionally, turmeric stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearly exhausted, and no fresh arrivals were reported in the last two days—supporting price firmness. On the trade front, turmeric exports during Apr–Sep 2025 rose 4.02% to 96,679.67 tonnes, compared with 92,941.75 tonnes last year. September exports stood at 16,523.10 tonnes, up 7.59% y/y, though slightly lower by 3.58% from August 2025. In Nizamabad, a key spot market, prices fell 0.59% to 14,875.45. Technical Overview: The market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 1.09% to 7,710, alongside a price decline of 200. Turmeric has immediate support at 14,344, and a break below this could push prices to 14,202. Resistance is located at 14,654, and a move above this level may open the door toward 14,822.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14202-14822.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* However downside seen limited as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* Due to continuous rains in Erode, disease outbreaks have started emerging in some areas.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14875.45 Rupees dropped by -0.59 percent.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday slipped 0.89% to 21,600, pressured by comfortable supplies, weak export interest, and subdued buying from overseas markets. Adequate existing stocks and the end of the retail season also contributed to the soft tone. Export demand from Gulf countries and China has improved slightly but remains highly price-sensitive, restricting any sharp upside. Despite this, the downside remains limited as weather-related delays and uneven rainfall have slowed sowing significantly. As of 1 December 2025, Gujarat—India’s largest producer—reported 7.74% lower sowing, covering 194,775 hectares versus 211,121 hectares last year. Low arrivals in Unjha and higher prices for good-quality cumin highlight ongoing supply concerns. India and the Middle East continue to face logistical and climate challenges, tightening supply but failing to fully revive export momentum. Farmers hold around 20 lakh bags, yet only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded this season, leaving an estimated 16 lakh bags as carry-forward stock. Production for 2025 is projected at 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, reflecting reduced acreage. Global production is also constrained in China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan due to adverse weather. Jeera exports during Apr–Sep 2025 fell 14.51% to 101,898.64 tonnes, though September exports saw a mild recovery. In Unjha, spot prices rose 0.44% to 21,452.8. Technical Outlook: Jeera is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest dropping 4.33% to 2,919, alongside a price decline of 195. Immediate support is at 21,470, and a break below this may push prices toward 21,350. Resistance lies at 21,780, and crossing this could take prices to 21,970.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21350-21970.

* Jeera dropped due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* However downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing dropped by 7.74 to 194,775 hectares compared to 211,121 hectares last year.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21452.8 Rupees gained by 0.44 percent.

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