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Gold

Gold prices slipped 0.34% to settle at 1,25,504 as traders booked profits and weighed the rising probability of a U.S. interest rate cut in December. Market sentiment shifted sharply after comments from key Federal Reserve officials, including Mary Daly and Christopher Waller, strengthened expectations of monetary easing. According to CME FedWatch, the likelihood of a December rate cut surged to 85%, up from just 30% a week earlier. However, conflicting Fed signals kept volatility elevated, prompting hedging activity in swaptions and rate derivatives. Physical demand across major Asian hubs remained subdued due to price volatility. In India, dealers offered discounts of up to $21 per ounce—lower than last week’s $43 but still reflecting weak demand despite the ongoing wedding season. China continued to show restrained buying, with gold trading at par to a $5 discount, while Swiss exports in October declined 11% as high global prices dampened Chinese appetite. Global demand, however, painted a stronger picture. According to the World Gold Council, third-quarter demand rose 3% year-on-year to a record 1,313 tons, driven by a 17% jump in bar and coin buying led by India and China, and a massive 134% rise in ETF inflows. Technically, gold is under long liquidation with open interest plunging 28.44% to 4,828 while prices fell 427. Support lies at 1,25,220, with further downside towards 1,24,940, while resistance is expected at 1,25,845; a breakout may lift prices to 1,26,190.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 124940-126190.

* Gold prices edged lower on profit booking as investors assessed the likelihood of Fed rate cut in December.

* Fed’s Daly and Fed Waller bolstered expectations of a cut.

* Russia's central bank says gold demand driven by G7 attempt to get Moscow's frozen assets

Silver

Silver prices gained 0.74% to settle at 1,62,467, supported by rising expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts. Market sentiment strengthened after reports suggested White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett is the leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve chair—an appointment viewed as favoring a lower-rate stance. Traders now assign an 85% probability to a 25-bps cut in December, compared with only 30% a week earlier, with expectations of additional cuts through 2026. On the supply front, another 7.6 million ounces exited COMEX warehouses last week, bringing inventories down to 462 million ounces—the lowest since March. In contrast, LBMA inventories rose sharply to 844 million ounces in October, driven by increased metal flows to London amid favorable arbitrage opportunities. Tightness persists globally, especially in China, where SHFE-linked stockpiles have fallen to their lowest levels since 2015. Chinese silver exports surged to a record 660 tons in October, contributing to London inflows. Physical demand also provided support, fueled by India’s wedding season and uncertainty surrounding potential U.S. tariffs after silver’s inclusion in the USGS critical minerals list. London vault holdings rose 6.8% in October to 26,255 metric tons, valued at $41.3 billion, easing some of the earlier squeeze in the OTC market. Technically, silver is in short covering, with open interest dropping 37.54% to 6,169 as prices rose 1,195. Support lies at 1,60,495, with further downside toward 1,58,520, while resistance is placed at 1,64,210; a break above could lift prices to 1,65,950.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 158520-165950.

* Silver gains amid growing expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates further.

* Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventories at lowest since 2015

* Strong industrial, fabrication, and solar sector demand reducing stock further

Crude oil

Crude oil gained 1.87% to settle at 5,290 as geopolitical uncertainty and mixed supply dynamics supported prices. Market sentiment was lifted after doubts emerged regarding the success of the new U.S. proposal for ending the Russia–Ukraine conflict, with EU officials stating that Russia showed “no real intent” toward peace. At the same time, Ukraine signaled willingness to advance U.S.-backed peace terms, and diplomatic engagements by the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine kept volatility elevated. On the supply front, OPEC+ is expected to keep output unchanged, while CPC resumed oil loadings after a temporary suspension caused by a drone attack. U.S. inventory data showed a mixed picture: crude stocks rose by 2.8 million barrels to 426.9 million barrels in the week ending November 21, higher than expectations, while gasoline and distillate inventories climbed moderately. Cushing stocks dipped by 68,000 barrels, and refinery utilization rose to 92.3%. Net U.S. crude imports increased sharply by 1.05 million bpd. Global balance concerns also weighed on sentiment. Major institutions such as Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and the IEA warned of a sustained surplus through 2026, with global supply expected to exceed demand by over 4 million bpd. Technically, crude oil is in short covering, with open interest falling 8.63% to 14,645 while prices rose 97. Support is seen at 5,236, with further weakness toward 5,182. Resistance is positioned at 5,320, and a break above this level could push prices toward 5,350.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5182-5350.

* Crude oil surged as doubts were cast on the possible success of the new U.S. proposal to end the Russia-Ukraine war.

* On the supply side, OPEC+ is likely to leave output levels unchanged at its meeting.

* Crude inventories climbed by 2.8 million barrels to 426.9 million barrels in the week ended November 21, the EIA said.

Natural gas

Natural gas edged higher by 1.18% to settle at 413.1 as expectations of stronger demand and a deeper-than-anticipated storage withdrawal supported prices. Colder-than-normal temperatures forecast through December 10 are expected to lift heating demand, adding bullish momentum. LNG exports also strengthened, with flows from the eight major U.S. terminals averaging 18 bcfd in November, up sharply from October’s record 16.6 bcfd, signaling robust overseas demand. On the supply side, U.S. production remains exceptionally high. Output in the Lower 48 averaged 109.7 bcfd in November, surpassing previous monthly records and keeping overall supplies comfortable. Despite strong production, U.S. natural gas inventories saw a notable withdrawal of 11 bcf in the week ending November 21, well above expectations of just 1 bcf. This draw marks the second week of the withdrawal season and reflects rising heating needs. Even after the decline, storage levels at 3,935 bcf remain 4.2% above the five-year average, though they sit 0.8% below last year's levels. The EIA’s latest outlook indicates both supply and demand will reach new records in the coming years. Dry gas production is projected to climb to 107.1 bcfd in 2025 and 107.4 bcfd in 2026, while domestic consumption is expected to increase to 91.6 bcfd in both years. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest up 1.16% to 16,019 as prices gained 4.8. Support lies at 407.3, with further downside risk toward 401.6. Resistance is seen at 417, and a sustained move above this level could take prices to 421.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 401.6-421.

* Natural gas rose on expectations of higher demand and a sharper withdrawal to stocks.

* Forecasts suggest temperatures will remain mostly below normal through December 10, which could boost demand.

* LNG exports are rising, with flows from the eight major US terminals averaging 18 bcfd in November, up from October’s record 16.6 bcfd.

Copper

Copper prices ended flat at 1020.7, as a recovery in the U.S. dollar and weak economic data from China kept sentiment subdued. Industrial profits in China contracted in October, while concerns over developer Vanke’s debt situation added further pressure. The persistent 2%–3% Comex premium over LME has continued to draw metal into U.S. warehouses, taking Comex stocks to a record 378,900 tons, while LME inventories have fallen 42% this year to 157,175 tons. This widening imbalance is raising concerns about tightening supplies outside the U.S. The LME cash-to-three-month premium recently touched a five-week high of $25 per ton, reflecting localized tightness. On the fundamentals side, the global copper cathode market is expected to show a 350,000–400,000 ton surplus this year, but a 500,000 ton deficit in copper concentrate is anticipated to persist into next year. China’s copper cathode imports dropped sharply, falling 22.1% year-on-year in October, indicating softer demand. Meanwhile, global supply concerns remain due to mine disruptions, although Freeport-McMoRan has confirmed Grasberg output should resume by July 2026. Cochilco and Goldman Sachs have raised their longer-term price forecasts, with Goldman projecting copper could reach $15,000 per ton by 2035, driven by structural deficits. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure with open interest rising 1.78% to 8,692. Support is placed at 1,018.3, with a break below likely to test 1,016. Resistance is now seen at 1,022.6, and a move above this level may open the path toward 1,024.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1016-1024.6.

* Copper prices came under pressure amid recovery in dollar and weak data from China.

* Data showing that China's industrial profits contracted in October.

* Comex copper stocks, at 378,900 metric tons, hit a record high last week and have continued to climb this week.

Zinc

Zinc prices slipped 0.7% to settle at 299.1, pressured by rising inventories in LME-registered warehouses, which have climbed 47% in November to 49,925 tons. This build-up eased immediate supply concerns, although the cash-to-three-month premium remains elevated at $135 per ton, signalling tightness in nearby availability. Weak economic indicators from China also weighed on sentiment, reducing demand expectations, while fading hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut added further pressure. Despite this, downside remained limited as the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 20,300 tons in September, down from 32,700 tons in August, according to ILZSG. The global refined zinc market recorded a 120,000-ton surplus in the first nine months of 2025, slightly higher than the surplus a year earlier. SHFE-monitored zinc inventories fell 0.54%, reflecting a mild drawdown in Chinese domestic stocks. Meanwhile, zinc inventories outside China remain historically low. China’s refined zinc production trends show volatility: September output declined 4% month-on-month, though it was up over 20% year-on-year. China’s refined zinc exports surged to 8,519 tons in October, up 244% from September, as smelters targeted overseas markets amid weak domestic demand and tight LME conditions. Technically, the market is undergoing long liquidation, with open interest falling 2.79% to 2,684 and prices declining by 2.1. Support is placed at 297.9, with further weakness likely toward 296.7. Resistance is seen at 301, and a breakout above could lift prices toward 302.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 296.7-302.9.

* Zinc dropped as rising LME zinc stocks at 49925 tons, showing a gain of 47% since the start of November.

* Global zinc market surplus declined to 20,300 metric tons in September from 32,700 tons in August

* Global refined zinc metal production is projected to rise 2.7% to 13.8 million mt in 2025.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices slipped 0.64% to settle at 270.45, pressured by concerns over demand in China, the world’s largest metals consumer. Weak economic signals and rising SHFE aluminium inventories, which increased 7.67% from last Friday, weighed on market sentiment. However, the downside remained limited due to growing expectations of a U.S. rate cut in December, which supported broader commodities. Supply-side constraints also underpinned prices, with Chinese smelters nearing government-imposed capacity caps and authorities reiterating their priority of preventing overcapacity to curb deflationary pressures. On the global front, primary aluminium output rose 0.6% year-on-year in October to 6.294 million tonnes, according to the IAI, although production fell 9% from September. Japanese port inventories declined 3.6% to 329,100 tonnes, signalling steady demand in Asia. Supply disruptions continued to support prices: Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter suspended a potline due to electrical failure, Century Aluminium curtailed output by two-thirds at another Icelandic facility, and Alcoa announced the closure of its Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia. China’s trade data reflected healthy demand—imports of unwrought aluminium and products surged 10.4% YoY in October, following a strong 35.4% rise in September.. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling 6.44% to 3,166 and prices down 1.75. Support lies at 269.3, with further downside toward 268.2. Resistance is at 272.1, and a breakout could lift prices to 273.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 268.2-273.8.

* Aluminium dropped as concern about demand in top metals consumer China weighed on the market.

* However downside seen limited amid growing prospects of a December U.S. rate cut following dovish signals from central bank officials.

* Global primary aluminium output in October rose 0.6% year on year to 6.294 million tonnes – IAI

Turmeric

Turmeric prices climbed 2.54% to settle at 14,448, supported by weather-related damage across key growing states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Continuous rains have not only affected yields but also triggered disease outbreaks in Erode, where excessive humidity is making storage difficult. Reports from Nanded indicate nearly 15% crop damage, adding to supply concerns. Meanwhile, farmer-held stocks in Warangal are almost exhausted, with no arrivals in recent days, further tightening availability. However, the upside remains capped as favourable rains during sowing have encouraged higher acreage, with estimates suggesting a 15–20% rise. For 2024–25, turmeric area has already grown to 3.30 lakh hectares, 10% higher than last season. Market sentiments remain firm as fresh arrivals at Duggirala continue to attract strong buying interest, particularly for superior-quality new crop fetching higher premiums. Daily inflows remain robust at 1,000–1,200 bags, and nearly half of the new crop has already been marketed. Arrivals are expected to continue through June. Additionally, government procurement in Himachal Pradesh is supporting farmer sentiment. On the export front, Apr–Sep 2025 shipments rose 4.02% to 96,679.67 tonnes, with September exports up 7.59% year-on-year. In Nizamabad, spot prices closed 1.18% higher at 14,838.45. Technically, turmeric is witnessing short covering as open interest dropped 12.85% to 8,750 while prices gained 358. The commodity now finds support at 13,840, with further downside possible towards 13,234, while resistance is seen at 14,826; a breakout above this level may push prices towards 15,206.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13234-15206.

* Turmeric gains as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* Due to continuous rains in Erode, disease outbreaks have started emerging in some areas.

* However upside seen limited amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14838.45 Rupees gained by 1.18 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices rose 2.79% to settle at 22,120, supported by weather-related challenges and delayed sowing across major producing regions. Uneven rainfall has slowed field preparation, particularly in Gujarat, leading to one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years. Arrivals at Unjha remain very low, and good-quality cumin continues to command higher prices. Supply tightness also persists due to logistical and weather disruptions in India and the Middle East. However, upside remains restricted as export demand is subdued, with buyers showing price sensitivity and existing stocks adequately meeting current requirements. Domestic sentiment received some support after the GST Council reduced the GST rate to 5%, which is expected to aid FMCG demand and export competitiveness. Farmers are still holding around 20 lakh bags of cumin, but with only 3–4 lakh bags likely to be traded this season, carry-forward stocks could be around 16 lakh bags. Production estimates for the current year suggest 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year's 1.10 crore bags, with Gujarat expected to produce 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan 48–50 lakh bags. Global production remains mixed, with China revising its output lower due to adverse weather, while Turkey, Syria and Afghanistan continue to face geopolitical disruptions. Jeera exports for Apr–Sep 2025 dropped 14.51% to 101,898.64 tonnes. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 1.76% to 3,117 as prices gained 600. Support is now placed at 21,630, with further downside risk towards 21,130, while resistance stands at 22,490; a breakout above this level may push prices to 22,850.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21130-22850.

* Jeera gained as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* However, upside seen limited due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* Gujarat, is seeing one of the slowest sowing seasons in years because fields are not ready.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21127.9 Rupees dropped by -0.18 percent.

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