Turmeric trading range for the day is 13228-13468 - Kedia Advisory
Gold
Gold prices ended slightly higher yesterday, settling up by 0.13% at 99,435 as traders digested the U.S. Fed’s July meeting minutes and positioned themselves ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s address at the Jackson Hole symposium. The latest data showed Initial Jobless Claims rising to 235K, the highest in eight weeks, above expectations of 225K, which provided some underlying support to bullion. The Fed minutes highlighted inflation risks stemming from newly imposed reciprocal tariffs by President Trump, which officials viewed as a bigger concern than a cooling labor market. On the trade front, Swiss gold exports in July reflected shifting flows. Shipments to the U.S. jumped sharply to 51 tons from just 288 kg in June, while exports to India also rose significantly to 13 tons from 3 tons. Conversely, deliveries to the UK and China declined. In India, gold ETF holdings grew 42% year-on-year to 66.68 tonnes, with AUM surging 88%, reflecting strong investor appetite. Physical demand in India showed mild improvement as price corrections revived interest, with dealers offering smaller discounts compared to last week. Asian markets showed mixed premiums and discounts. Technically, the market is under short covering with open interest down -1.79% to 13,544 while prices gained 131 rupees. Immediate support is at 99,035 and below that at 98,635, while resistance is seen at 99,715, and a move above could test the 99,995 level.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 98635-99995.
* Gold steadied as traders digest the Fed’s July meeting minutes and position ahead of Fed Powell’s remarks.
* Initial Jobless Claims rose to 235K in the latest week, overshooting expectations of 225K.
* Gold exports to the U.S. jumped to 51.0 metric tons in July, the highest since March – Swiss.
Silver
Silver prices gained momentum yesterday, settling 1.02% higher at 113706 as investors awaited policy signals from the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole symposium. The FOMC’s July minutes highlighted that most members, including Chair Jerome Powell, preferred maintaining a restrictive stance until there is clarity on the inflationary impact of tariffs. U.S. jobless claims rose more than expected, with initial claims jumping to 235,000 and continuing claims climbing to their highest since late 2021, reflecting some softening in the labor market. According to CME FedWatch, markets now price an over 80% chance of a 25 bps rate cut in September, which supported precious metals sentiment. Political uncertainty added to the mix as U.S. President Donald Trump criticized the Fed and called for the resignation of Governor Lisa Cook, though she has resisted the pressure. On the investment front, silver exchange-traded products (ETPs) saw a strong inflow of 95 million ounces in the first half of 2025, pushing total holdings to 1.13 billion ounces, close to peak 2021 levels. Retail investment showed regional divergence, with Europe and India reporting healthy gains. Technically, silver is in short covering as open interest dropped 10.22% to 15,072 while prices gained 1,153 rupees. Immediate support is at 112535, with further downside risk toward 111365 if breached. Resistance is seen at 114360, and a breakout above could lift prices toward 115015.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 111365-115015.
* Silver gains as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole symposium for policy cues.
* Initial jobless claims in the US jumped by 11,000 from the previous week to 235,000 on the second week of August.
* Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeff Schmid said that the last mile of inflation will be "pretty hard".
Crude oil
Crude oil prices climbed 1.59% to settle at 5563, supported by strong U.S. demand indicators and lingering geopolitical risks tied to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Moscow reiterated that peace efforts excluding Russia were a "road to nowhere," keeping supply-side uncertainty elevated. On the supply front, two Chevron-chartered tankers carrying Venezuelan crude reached U.S. shores, the first such imports since Washington issued a fresh license, hinting at evolving trade flows. Inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration added bullish momentum. Crude stocks fell sharply by 6 million barrels to 420.7 million, well above expectations of a 1.8 million-barrel draw, while gasoline inventories also dropped by 2.7 million barrels, against a forecasted 0.9 million-barrel decline. Refinery utilization rose to 96.6%, reflecting robust processing activity, though distillate stocks increased by 2.3 million barrels, above the expected 0.9 million-barrel rise. From a broader perspective, OPEC revised its demand outlook upward, projecting global oil demand growth of 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026, 100,000 bpd higher than previous estimates. Meanwhile, supply growth from non-OPEC+ producers was trimmed to 630,000 bpd from 730,000 bpd, reinforcing expectations of a tighter market balance. Technically, crude oil is in short covering as open interest fell by -11.3% to 13,048, while prices gained 87 rupees. Support is placed at 5502, with a break lower opening the way to 5442, whereas resistance lies at 5595, and a move above this level could trigger further gains toward 5628.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5442-5628.
* Crude oil prices edged up bolstered by signs of strong demand in the United States.
* U.S. crude inventories fell by 6 million barrels last week to 420.7 million barrels, the U.S. EIA said.
* US resumes imports of Venezuelan oil under new license to Chevron
Natural gas
Natural gas yesterday surged by 3.81% to settle at 248, supported by a combination of declining daily output and stronger LNG export flows. According to LSEG, average gas output in the Lower 48 states stood at 108.4 bcfd so far in August, slightly above July’s record high of 107.8 bcfd. However, on a daily basis, output dropped sharply by 3.6 bcfd to a six-week low of 106.4 bcfd, retreating from the July 28 peak of 109.8 bcfd. On the demand front, U.S. consumption, including exports, is projected to ease from 110.8 bcfd this week to 106.8 bcfd next week, broadly in line with earlier expectations. Storage data further lent support to prices as U.S. firms injected only 13 bcf into inventories for the week ending August 15, well below market expectations of 22 bcf and significantly lower than both last year’s 29 bcf build and the five-year average of 35 bcf. Stockpiles remain about 5.8% above the seasonal norm, indicating comfortable supplies despite the smaller build. The EIA, in its latest STEO, projected U.S. dry gas production to climb from 103.2 bcfd in 2024 to 106.4 bcfd in 2025 before a slight dip in 2026, while consumption is also set to reach record highs before easing. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dropped sharply by -30.41% to 22,098 while prices gained 9.1 rupees. Natural gas now finds support at 241.4, with a break below exposing 234.8, while resistance is seen at 251.7, and a move above could extend gains toward 255.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 234.8-255.4.
* Natural gas climbed on recent declines in daily output and an increase in gas flows to LNG export plants.
* Average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 108.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in August.
* Average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, would ease from 110.8 bcfd to 106.8 bcfd next week.
Copper
Copper prices witnessed a modest gain yesterday, settling 0.45% higher at 877.3, supported by improved demand signals from Europe and supply concerns from Chile. Fresh data showed euro zone businesses reported new orders rising in August for the first time since May 2024, helping overall activity expand at its fastest pace in 15 months. On the supply front, Chilean state miner Codelco cut its 2025 production guidance after an accident at its El Teniente mine reduced output by 33,000 tons. On the demand side, mixed signals continue to emerge from top consumer China. While the Yangshan copper premium has slipped to $47 a ton from above $100 in May, reflecting weaker import appetite, China’s renewed pledge to stimulate consumption has lifted hopes for stronger seasonal demand. Supporting long-term fundamentals, Citi revised its 0–3 month copper price forecast upward to $9,200 per tonne, while Cochilco maintained its 2025–26 average price forecast at $4.30 per pound, citing constrained supply and firm Chinese demand. Globally, the copper market showed a surplus of 97,000 tonnes in May after a deficit in April, according to ICSG, with refined output at 2.40 million tonnes against consumption of 2.30 million tonnes. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dropped by -20.97% to 2,925 while prices gained 3.9 rupees. Immediate support is at 872, with further weakness likely toward 866.5, while resistance is seen at 880.5, and a move above could open the path to 883.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 866.5-883.5.
* Copper rises as euro zone new orders grow in August for first time since May 2024
* Chilean copper giant Codelco said it would lower its 2025 production guidance
* Goldman Sachs sees upside risk to 2026/2027 copper price forecasts of $10,000/10,750/t
Zinc
Zinc prices closed marginally lower by 0.09% at 265.05 as the market weighed rising global mine output against signs of tightening supply in China. On the supply side, overseas zinc mines reported more than 12% YoY production growth, adding pressure to the market. At the same time, Chinese smelters are facing pressure to cut production due to overcapacity, with heavy rainfall in South China also disrupting operations. Despite this, inventories have been rising—zinc ingot stocks in seven tracked locations stood at 135,400 mt, up by 16,300 mt from August 11, reflecting a persistent surplus in the domestic market. From the demand side, a series of weak economic indicators from China weighed on sentiment. Industrial production growth fell to a seven-month low, retail sales slowed to a six-month low, and unemployment rose to a four-month high, signaling softening demand in the world’s top consumer of zinc. On the global balance sheet, the zinc market swung to a deficit of 44,100 metric tons in May, compared with a surplus of 17,300 tons in April, according to ILZSG data. However, for the first five months of 2025, there remains a surplus of 88,000 tons, though sharply lower than last year’s 214,000 tons, pointing to some tightening. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling by 11.24% to 1,556 contracts while prices edged down by 0.25 rupees. Support is placed at 263.5, with a break below likely to test 261.8, while resistance is seen at 266.5, with further upside potential toward 267.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 261.8-267.8.
* Zinc prices dropped as the production of major overseas zinc mines increased by over 12% YoY.
* Zinc supply is tightening as Chinese smelters face pressure to cut production due to capacity outpacing demand.
* However, production at some smelters in South China was affected by heavy rain.
Aluminium
Aluminium prices rose by 0.64% to settle at 250.25, supported by tighter inventories and improving demand prospects in China. Global primary aluminium output in July increased 2.5% year-on-year to 6.373 million tonnes, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). Market participants are awaiting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for guidance on rate cut expectations, while U.S. trade policy developments added to volatility after Washington widened its 50% import tariff to cover more than 400 steel and aluminium products. In China, aluminium demand was underpinned by large-scale infrastructure projects, including the mega dam project in Tibet, while production remains capped at 45 million tonnes annually under Beijing’s policy to prevent overcapacity and environmental degradation. Chinese output in July rose 1.05% YoY and 3.11% MoM, reflecting steady growth, while exports of unwrought aluminium and products rose to 542,000 tonnes, up from 489,000 tonnes in June. Imports surged 38.2% YoY to 360,000 tonnes in July, with cumulative imports in the first seven months of 2025 rising 1.5% from a year earlier to 2.33 million tonnes. At the same time, Japanese port inventories edged down 0.4% MoM to 315,400 tonnes, signaling tighter regional supply. Technically, the market witnessed short covering with open interest down 11.59% to 2,120 contracts while prices gained 1.6 rupees. Support is at 248.9, with a break lower opening downside toward 247.4, while resistance is placed at 251.2, with a move above likely to test 252.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 247.4-252.
* Aluminium climbed as lower inventories and signs of improving demand in China boosted prices.
* Global primary aluminium output in July rose 2.5% year-on-year to 6.373 million tonnes – IAI
* Investors are closely watching for cues from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Friday for a test of bets on a rate cut.
Turmeric
Turmeric closed lower by 0.74% at 13,326 as prices came under pressure from rising acreage amid favorable monsoon conditions. Reports suggest turmeric acreage may increase by 15–20% in the current season as farmers shift from other less profitable crops. For the 2024–25 season, the area under turmeric has already been recorded at 3.30 lakh hectares, up 10% from about 3 lakh hectares in the previous year. However, the downside remains restricted as farmer-held stocks in Warangal are nearly exhausted, with no fresh arrivals in the past two days. At Duggirala, new season turmeric continues to fetch a premium over older stock due to better quality, with strong demand keeping trade volumes firm at 1,000–1,200 bags daily. Nearly 50–55% of the new crop has already been marketed, and arrivals are likely to remain steady as harvesting continues through June. On the export front, turmeric shipments rose by 3.12% to 47,949.56 tonnes during Apr–Jun 2025 versus 46,498.64 tonnes last year. However, June exports dropped 7.93% year-on-year to 13,787.28 tonnes and fell sharply by 28.21% compared to May 2025, indicating softer overseas demand. Technically, the market witnessed fresh selling pressure as open interest increased by 1.67% to 17,625 contracts, while prices slipped by 100 rupees. Immediate support is seen at 13,276, with a break below likely testing 13,228. On the upside, resistance is pegged at 13,396, and a move above this may open the path towards 13,468 levels.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13228-13468.
* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.
* However downside seen limited as turmeric stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearly depleted.
* Market participants are closely monitoring weather patterns and crop conditions.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13705.45 Rupees gained by 0.02 percent.
Jeera
Jeera futures closed marginally higher by 0.03% at 19,420 on short covering after recent losses triggered by weak domestic and export demand post the retail season. The fall earlier was largely attributed to the conclusion of the retail season and limited activity from foreign buyers. Adequate supplies and tepid export interest also kept pressure on the market, with only 3–4 lakh bags expected to trade by the end of the season, leaving a significant carry-forward stock of around 16 lakh bags. Geopolitical disruptions in major producing countries like Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan have curtailed their supplies, but weak overseas demand continues to restrain price gains from India’s exports. Production estimates for the current season indicate 90–92 lakh bags for the country, with Gujarat producing around 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan about 48–50 lakh bags. Global production outside India includes 70–80 thousand tons in China, 9–10 thousand tons in Syria, 10–11 thousand tons in Turkey, and 10–12 thousand tons in Afghanistan. On the export front, jeera shipments during Apr–Jun 2025 declined by 19.57% to 59,247.76 tonnes from 73,666.09 tonnes a year earlier. June exports rose 10.26% year-on-year to 16,322.06 tonnes but fell sharply by 29.67% from May 2025, reflecting seasonality and fluctuating overseas demand. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying with open interest up 0.35% at 5,139 contracts and prices up 5 rupees. Immediate support is seen at 19,320, with a break below likely testing 19,220. Resistance is likely at 19,520, and a sustained move above this level could open the way for prices to test 19,620.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 19220-19620.
* Jeera gains on short covering after prices dropped due to weak domestic and export demand
* Only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags
* Total arrivals witnessed a marginal increase to 12,000 bags (55 kg each) as against 11,800 bags on the previous day.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19622.8 Rupees gained by 0.08 percent.
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