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Gold

Gold futures climbed 0.93% to settle at 1,04,785, supported by rising expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this month, which enhanced the appeal of non-yielding bullion. Market sentiment strengthened after U.S. data showed solid consumer spending in July along with a 0.2% monthly rise in the PCE Price Index, up 2.6% year-on-year, both aligning with forecasts. Despite firmer inflation, traders widely expect a 25 basis point Fed rate cut, with the CME FedWatch tool assigning an 87% probability. Adding to the bullish undertone, holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust rose 1.01% to 977.68 tons, reflecting renewed investor appetite. On the physical demand side, Indian jewellers increased purchases ahead of the festive season despite elevated prices, with local dealers charging premiums of up to $4 per ounce over domestic rates. The approaching Dussehra and Diwali festivals are expected to lend further support. In China, gold traded at par to a $5 premium, while in Hong Kong and Singapore, premiums stood at around $2.50 per ounce. Globally, second-quarter gold demand rose 3% year-on-year to 1,248.8 tons, led by a 78% jump in investment demand, according to the World Gold Council. Technically, the market is under fresh buying with open interest up 1.07% at 16,954 alongside price gains of 961. Support lies at 1,03,905, below which prices could test 1,03,030, while resistance is seen at 1,05,795, with further upside potential toward 1,06,810.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 103030-106810.

* Gold rose to all time high as increased expectations of a Fed interest rate cut this month.

* U.S. PCE Price index rose 0.2% month-on-month, and was up 2.6% on a year-on-year basis.

* Traders are currently pricing in an 87% chance the Fed will ease rates by 25 basis points later this month.

Silver

Silver prices rallied sharply, settling 2.29% higher at 1,24,661, supported by firm expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut later this month. Market sentiment strengthened after San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly signaled readiness to ease borrowing costs amid labor market risks, while tariff-driven inflation was viewed as temporary. Traders are pricing in nearly an 88% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut, despite PCE inflation showing a steady rise in consumer prices. On the trade front, a U.S. court ruling deeming most reciprocal tariffs illegal added to optimism, as it raised hopes of improved trade relations. Industrial demand further underpinned silver, with China’s booming solar sector boosting solar cell exports by more than 70% in the first half of 2025, driven largely by Indian orders. Investment flows into silver-backed exchange-traded products (ETPs) have also been robust, with net inflows of 95 million ounces in the first six months already surpassing last year’s total. By end-June, global ETP holdings stood at 1.13 billion ounces, just 7% below the 2021 peak. Retail investment has been mixed — while Europe and India posted gains, high prices have weighed on jewelry demand, particularly in India, where a double-digit decline is expected this year. Technically, silver is witnessing fresh buying with open interest rising 2.19% to 20,655 alongside price gains of 2,788. Support is placed at 1,23,110 and below that at 1,21,555, while resistance is seen at 1,25,605, and a move above could take prices towards 1,26,545.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 121555-126545.

* Silver surged to all time high on strong expectations of imminent Federal Reserve rate cut.

* Fed’s Daly signaled readiness to ease policy amid labor market risks.

* China’s solar boom boosted silver demand, exports surged 70% H1.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices ended higher by 0.87% at 5,703, supported by renewed geopolitical tensions that reignited concerns over Russian supply. The European Union’s consideration of supplementary tariffs and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s pledge to expand strikes deeper into Russian territory raised risks of further disruptions. At the same time, uncertainty looms over India’s stance on continued Russian oil imports amid U.S. secondary sanctions pressure. However, upside momentum was tempered by concerns of oversupply and weaker demand outlook, particularly as the end of the summer driving season weighs on U.S. fuel consumption. Market positioning reflected bearish undertones as money managers cut net-long U.S. crude futures and options for a fourth straight week to the lowest level since January 2007, CFTC data showed. Still, U.S. inventory dynamics offered short-term support: crude stocks fell by 2.392 million barrels to 418.3 million, exceeding forecasts, while Cushing hub inventories dropped 838,000 barrels. Gasoline stocks declined by 1.2 million barrels, though less than expected, while distillate inventories fell sharply by 1.8 million barrels, signaling tighter product balances. On the fundamental side, OPEC maintained its oil demand growth forecast for this year but raised its 2026 outlook by 100,000 bpd to 1.38 million bpd.  Technically, crude oil is witnessing fresh buying interest with open interest rising 4.06% to 11,968 as prices gained 49. Support is now at 5,646, with further downside risk towards 5,588, while resistance is pegged at 5,746, and a breakout above could push prices towards 5,788.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5588-5788.

* Crude oil rose driven by renewed threats to Russian supply following fears of supplementary tariffs by EU.

* The geopolitical risks are being countered by a looming oversupply and weaker demand prospects.

* Money managers reduced their net-long U.S. crude positions for fourth straight week, hitting the lowest level since January 2007.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices slipped by 1.02% to settle at 261.3 as forecasts for mild weather and abundant supply kept bearish pressure on the market. The decline comes despite ongoing shifts in global trade, with Russian LNG exports falling over 6% in the year to August, allowing U.S. LNG to capture greater market share in Europe and Asia. However, this diversion has tightened availability for U.S. consumers, raising competition domestically. Storage levels remain relatively firm, with the latest EIA data showing inventories 3.4% lower year-on-year, though still about 5% above the five-year average. On the supply-demand front, ExxonMobil noted that global natural gas demand is set to rise more than 20% over the next 25 years as countries transition away from coal. In the near term, U.S. producers injected 18 bcf into storage during the week ending August 22, below expectations of 26 bcf, pointing to a smaller-than-anticipated build. Meanwhile, the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook projected that U.S. natural gas production will rise from 103.2 bcfd in 2024 to a record 106.4 bcfd in 2025 before easing slightly in 2026. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure with open interest rising 13.26% to 28,167 while prices dropped 2.7. Support is seen at 256.2, with further weakness likely towards 251.2. Resistance is placed at 268.6, and a break above could pave the way for a test of 276.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 251.2-276.

* Natural gas fell as mild weather forecasts limited short-term demand outlook.

* Ample supplies and storage pressure continued weighing on overall market sentiment.

* EIA data showed storage aggregates down 3.4% year-on-year, limiting comfort.

Copper

Copper prices slipped marginally by 0.28% to settle at 897.9 as mixed inventory data and supply-side developments influenced market sentiment. London Metal Exchange (LME) copper inventories climbed to 158,900 mt, a three-month high, signaling stronger near-term availability. However, inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 2.39% to 79,748 mt, reflecting firm Chinese demand, while global inventories declined by 427 mt to 12,428 mt. On the production front, Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, reported a modest 0.3% year-on-year output increase in July at 445,214 mt, while Peru’s production rose sharply by 7.1% in June, driven by higher output at Las Bambas. However, supply risks emerged after Chile’s state miner Codelco cut its 2025 output guidance, citing a 33,000-ton loss at the El Teniente mine following an accident. On the demand side, China continued to import aggressively, with copper concentrate imports rising 9% in July to 2.56 million tonnes, sustaining record smelting activity. Unwrought copper imports also grew 3.4% to 480,000 tonnes, though the pace slowed compared to June amid price concerns and supply constraints. Market balance data from ICSG showed a global refined copper surplus of 36,000 mt in June, narrowing from 79,000 mt in May, suggesting some tightening.  Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest dropped 1.15% to 6,764 while prices slipped 2.55. Support is at 895, with further downside towards 891.9, while resistance is at 903.4, and a breakout above could push prices towards 908.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 891.9-908.7.

* Copper dropped as LME copper inventories rose to a three-month high

* The latest data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed inventories edged down during the week.

* COMEX copper inventories continued to accumulate, with the latest inventory level reaching 277,843 mt, the highest since January 2004.

Zinc

Zinc prices edged higher by 0.33% to settle at 272.2, supported by expectations of potential capacity cuts from Chinese miners and refiners, alongside a weaker dollar after the Federal Reserve signaled a rate cut in September. Easing monetary conditions in major economies boosted sentiment for commodities, while Beijing’s pledge to reduce capacity in metal markets to tackle deflationary pressures raised expectations of tighter supply. Earlier this year, production disruptions were already evident, with Teck Resources’ Red Dog mine posting a 20% decline in Q1 output and Nyrstar announcing a 25% annual cut, adding to concerns over global supply tightness. On the inventory front, LME zinc stocks have dropped by 130,000 tonnes since the start of 2025 to 42,000 tonnes, reinforcing bullish fundamentals. However, inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.3% on the week, indicating short-term availability. Meanwhile, heavy rainfall in South China disrupted some smelter operations, though output in other regions rose as maintenance works were completed in provinces like Yunnan, Henan, and Hunan. Globally, the zinc market showed a deficit of 27,200 mt in June, narrowing from May, while ILZSG data indicated a surplus of 47,000 mt in H1 2025, highlighting mixed supply-demand dynamics. Technically, the market witnessed fresh buying, with open interest up 1.13% to 3,398 as prices gained 0.9. Support is placed at 271.1, with further downside possible to 270.1, while resistance is at 273.6, and a breakout above could push prices towards 275.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 270.1-275.1.

 Zinc gained amid likelihood of capacity cuts by Chinese miners and refiners.

* The developments were consistent with lower LME inventories, dropped by 130,000 tonnes since the start of the year to 42,000 tonnes.

* Euro zone businesses saw new orders increase in August for the first time since May 2024.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged lower by 0.14% to settle at 254.85, pressured by concerns over U.S. tariffs that are impacting factory activity in parts of Asia. However, sentiment received support from a private sector survey showing that China’s factory activity in August expanded at the fastest pace in five months, driven by rising new orders, highlighting resilient demand in the key consuming nation. On the supply side, the global primary aluminium market recorded a surplus of 183,100 tons in June, with production at 6.0944 million tons against consumption of 5.9113 million tons. For the first half of 2025, production slightly exceeded consumption, showing a minor deficit of 36,700 tons. Global output in July rose 2.5% YoY to 6.373 million tons, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). Supply constraints continue in specific regions, with Guinea Alumina losing its mining licenses and South32 closing its Mozal smelter in Mozambique due to power issues, potentially affecting output. Meanwhile, Chinese production is capped at 45 million tons this year, limiting supply growth from the world’s largest producer. European markets also face restricted availability amid sanctions on Russia, another major aluminium supplier. Aluminium inventories at major Japanese ports fell slightly to 315,400 tons by the end of July. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping by -3.96% to 3,976 contracts as prices declined 0.35. Support is seen at 253.9, with a further test of 252.8 possible, while resistance is at 256.1, and a breakout above could push prices toward 257.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 252.8-257.2.

* Aluminium pared gains amid worries about U.S. tariffs, which helped to dampen factory activity in parts of Asia.

* China's factory activity in August expanded at the quickest pace in five months on the back of rising new orders.

* Global primary aluminium output in July rose 2.5% year on year to 6.373 million tonnes – IAI

Turmeric

Turmeric prices witnessed a sharp correction yesterday, settling down by 5.84% at 12,506. The decline was primarily attributed to expectations of higher acreage this season following favorable rains, which could increase supply. However, the downside remained limited as stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearly depleted, with no significant fresh arrivals over the past two days, supporting a base for prices. Market participants are closely tracking weather conditions and crop developments, while low inflows and cautious selling continue to lend firmness to the market. On the production front, current dry conditions are conducive for timely planting, and preliminary estimates suggest that turmeric acreage may rise by 15-20% due to relatively lower profitability of alternate crops. For the 2024-25 season, the area under turmeric was recorded at 3.30 lakh hectares, a 10% increase from the previous season. In the Duggirala market, fresh crop arrivals are witnessing strong buyer interest, with new stock fetching premium prices compared to older inventory due to superior quality. Daily trade volumes remain robust, ranging between 1,000 and 1,200 bags, and approximately 50-55% of the new crop has already been traded. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest fell by -1.56% to settle at 17,660 contracts, with prices down 776. Turmeric is finding support at 12,180, with a further test of 11,856 possible if selling persists. Resistance is likely seen at 13,134, and a breakout above could take prices toward 13,764, suggesting potential upside in case of renewed buying.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 11856-13764.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* However downside seen limited as turmeric stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearly depleted.

* Market participants are closely monitoring weather patterns and crop conditions.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13459 Rupees dropped by -1.54 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices witnessed marginal gains yesterday, settling up by 0.16% at 19,280 on short covering, following earlier declines due to weak domestic and export demand post the retail season. The previous price drop was largely attributed to the conclusion of the retail period, subdued activity from foreign buyers, and comfortable supply levels, which together weighed on market sentiment. Farmers currently hold around 20 lakh bags of cumin, but only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of approximately 16 lakh bags. The current season is expected to see production levels similar to last year, supported by favorable crop conditions and good sowing. Despite geopolitical disruptions in key jeera-producing countries such as Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan, export demand from India remains limited, affecting overall market confidence. Domestic production estimates indicate a total output of 90-92 lakh bags, down from 1.10 crore bags last year. Specifically, Gujarat’s production is estimated at 42-45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan is expected to yield 48-50 lakh bags. International production is also modest, with China expected to produce 70-80 thousand tons, Syria 9-10 thousand tons, Turkey 10-11 thousand tons, and Afghanistan 10-12 thousand tons. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest falling -6.3% to 4,371 contracts. Jeera is receiving support at 19,180, with a further test of 19,090 possible if selling persists. Resistance is likely around 19,420, and a sustained move above could see prices testing 19,570.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19090-19570.

* Jeera gains on short covering after prices dropped due to weak domestic and export demand post retail season.

* Only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags

* Total arrivals witnessed a marginal increase to 12,000 bags (55 kg each) as against 11,800 bags on the previous day.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19596.1 Rupees dropped by -0.34 percent.

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