MCX Copper Sep is expected to rise towards Rs 912 level as long as it stays above Rs 899 level - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
• Spot Gold is likely to trade higher on growing prospects of 75 bps rate cut in this year. Further, expectation of cooling US inflation numbers could strengthen the chances of jumbo rate cut in September. Additionally, prices will get support from uncertainty over US tariffs and geopolitical risks. Precious metals will continue to get support from fund buying of precious metal ETFs. Gold ETF holding rose to a 2 year high and silver holdings in ETF rose to 3-year highs. Meanwhile, investors will eye on monetary policy from ECB where the central bank is likely to leave rates unchanged. Furthermore, focus will remain on key US CPI data which could bring further volatility.
• MCX Gold Oct is expected to rise towards Rs 109,900 level as long as it holds above Rs 108,000 level.
• MCX Silver Dec is expected to extend its gains towards Rs 126,500 level as long as it trades above Rs 123,500 level.
Base Metal Outlook
• Copper prices are expected to trade with a positive bias on supply concerns and soft dollar. Prolonged disruption at the second largest copper mine in Indonesia could tighten the market. Additionally, disruption at EL teniente mine in Chile could also challenge the supplies. On the demand front, prices may move north on signs of increasing demand from China after improvement in its PPI data. Yangshan copper premium a gauge of China's appetite for importing copper rose to $59 a ton, 3-month high. Further, prices may inch up buoyed by growing expectations of a Fed interest rate cut.
• MCX Copper Sep is expected to rise towards Rs 912 level as long as it stays above Rs 899 level. A break above Rs 912 level prices may rally further towards Rs 916 level
• MCX Aluminum Sep is expected to rise towards Rs 257 level as long as it stays above Rs 253 level. MCX Zinc Sep is likely to consolidate in the band of Rs 274 and Rs 277 level. A move above Rs 277 would rise towards Rs 280.
Energy Outlook
• Crude oil is likely to trade with positive bias and rise towards $65 level on rising geopolitical tension. Prices would get support on concerns over further disruption to Russian supplies. The incursion of Russian drones into Polish airspace raised concerns that US would come up with further restriction on Russia’s energy supplies. Moreover, geopolitical tension in the Middle East remains elevated. On the other hand, slowdown in US crude oil demand and rising inventory levels could restrict its upside. Meanwhile, investors will eye on key US CPI data which could bring further volatility in price.
• WTI crude oil is likely to rise towards $65 level as long as it trades above $62.00. MCX Crude oil Sep is likely to rise back towards Rs 5680 level as long as it stays above Rs 5450 level.
• MCX Natural gas Sep is expected to dip towards Rs 260 level as long as it stays below Rs 275 level.
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