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Gold

Gold prices firmed up, settling higher by 0.78% at 138,819, supported primarily by intensifying geopolitical risks that reinforced safe-haven demand. Investor sentiment remained cautious after President Trump warned of a strong response to potential Iranian violence against protesters, following recent US actions in Venezuela and heightened rhetoric over Greenland. Alongside geopolitics, continued central-bank buying provided a strong structural underpinning, with China extending its gold-purchasing streak for a 14th consecutive month. Data from the US also aided prices, as job openings fell to a 14-month low in November, signalling easing labour demand and supporting expectations of a more accommodative macro environment. On the supply side, gold holdings in London vaults rose to 9,106 tonnes at end-December, up 2.24% month-on-month, according to the LBMA. Physical demand showed mixed trends, with elevated prices curbing buying in India, while premiums in China surged sharply as retail interest revived post-holidays. Major banks remain constructive: HSBC and UBS raised their gold price outlooks for 2026, citing geopolitical risks, fiscal stress, and persistent official-sector demand. World Gold Council data further highlight central banks as a key pillar supporting prices. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 1.28% to 14,727 while prices gained Rs.1,077. Immediate support is seen at 137,850; a break below could test 136,880. On the upside, resistance stands at 139,670, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 140,520.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 136880-140520.

* Gold gains supported by escalating geopolitical risks that have bolstered safe-haven demand.

* Prices received support from continued central-bank purchases, with China extending its gold-buying streak for a 14th month.

* Gold prices could rise to $5,000 an ounce in the first half of 2026 on geopolitical risks and rising debt, HSBC said.

Silver

Silver posted a sharp rebound, settling higher by 3.86% at 252,725, driven by persistent supply constraints and renewed demand from both industrial users and investment flows. The rally also reflected ongoing safe-haven interest amid geopolitical uncertainties, including continued assessment of US involvement in Venezuela and rising tensions between China and Japan. Macro data from the US presented a mixed backdrop: housing starts fell 4.6% month-on-month to 1.246 million units, the lowest since the pandemic shock of 2020, while building permits slipped marginally by 0.2%. The labour market showed mild softening, with unemployment easing to 4.4% in December 2025 and payroll growth of 50,000, below expectations. On the supply side, silver holdings in London vaults rose to around 27,818 tonnes by end-December, while Chinese stockpiles dropped to their lowest levels in a decade, following record exports exceeding 660 tonnes in October. These flows have helped ease local shortages but raised broader concerns around global liquidity. HSBC significantly revised its silver price outlook higher for 2026 and 2027, citing a weaker US dollar and modest supply-demand deficits, while cautioning that prices remain volatile. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 4.9% to 11,858 contracts alongside a price rise of Rs.9,401. Immediate support is seen at 245,490; a break below could expose 238,250. On the upside, resistance stands at 258,150, with a sustained move above this level opening the path toward 263,570.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 238250-263570.

* Silver gains supported by supply constraints and robust demand from both industrial applications and investment flows.

* HSBC raised its silver price forecasts to $68.25 per ounce for 2026 from $44.50 earlier, and to $57 for 2027 from $40 earlier.

* US economy added 50K payrolls in December 2025, less than a downwardly revised 56K in November and below forecasts of 60K.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices posted a strong rebound, settling higher by 3.66% at 5,352, as markets reacted to rising geopolitical risks and renewed concerns over potential supply disruptions. Escalating civil unrest in Iran, uncertainty around Venezuelan exports, and fears of spillover effects from the Russia–Ukraine conflict supported prices. US actions against Venezuela remained in sharp focus after Washington seized oil tankers in the Atlantic, underlining intensified efforts to control regional energy flows. OPEC production was broadly steady in December at just over 29 million barrels per day, with a sharp decline in Venezuelan output to a two-year low of around 830,000 bpd offset by higher production from Iraq and other members. On the data front, US crude inventories fell by a larger-than-expected 1.93 million barrels, marking the biggest weekly draw since mid-November. However, the overall supply picture remains comfortable, with year-end commercial crude stocks still well above historical averages and sharp builds seen in gasoline and distillate inventories, highlighting ongoing refined product oversupply. The IEA revised higher its oil demand growth outlook for 2026 while trimming supply growth estimates, narrowing the projected surplus, as sanctions on Russia and Venezuela weigh on exports. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 3.75% to 13,057 alongside a Rs.189 price rise. Crude oil is finding support near 5,236; a break below could test 5,120. On the upside, resistance is seen at 5,434, with a move above opening the path toward 5,516.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5120-5516.

* Crude oil rose on concerns about potential disruption to Iran's output and uncertainty about supply from Venezuela.

* Civil unrest in Iran and concerns about the spread of the Russia-Ukraine war have increased supply worries.

* OPEC’s crude production held steady in December as a slump in Venezuela’s output to the lowest in two years.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices weakened sharply, settling lower by 4.08% at 294.2, pressured by a modest rise in daily production and weather forecasts pointing to mostly mild temperatures over the next two weeks, which are expected to keep heating demand below seasonal norms. Although forecasters continue to flag a brief colder spell later in January, overall weather conditions through January 23 are projected to remain warmer than normal across large parts of the US. This outlook has weighed on near-term demand expectations despite supportive export flows. Storage data, however, provided some counterbalance. The latest EIA report showed a larger-than-expected withdrawal of around 114–119 bcf for the week ended January 2, well above the five-year average draw of 92 bcf and significantly higher than the 51 bcf draw seen a year earlier. Total inventories declined to about 3.261 tcf, standing 3.6% below last year’s levels but still marginally above the five-year average. LNG exports remained robust, with feedgas flows averaging 18.5 bcfd so far in January, close to record highs. Looking ahead, the EIA expects both US natural gas production and consumption to rise to record levels in 2025, underscoring longer-term supply growth. From a technical standpoint, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 9.8% to 30,296 contracts while prices fell by Rs.12.5. Immediate support is seen at 285.2; a break below could open the downside toward 276.1. On the upside, resistance is placed at 309.7, with a move above potentially testing 325.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 276.1-325.1.

* Natural gas fell pressured by a modest increase in daily output and forecasts showing mostly mild weather.

* EIA storage report showed energy firms withdrew 114 bcf in the week ended January 2, a larger-than-usual draw.

* Exports continue to provide underlying support, with LNG feedgas flows averaging 18.5 bcfd so far in January.

Copper

Copper prices edged higher, settling up 0.87% at 1,281.3, supported by concerns over tightening supply and expectations of structurally stronger demand linked to the AI boom and the global energy transition. Near-term supply tightness was reflected in the LME market, where the cash-to-three-month copper premium widened to $55, a five-week high. Sentiment also drew support from fresh stimulus measures announced by China, including funding for consumer trade-in programs and large-scale infrastructure investments, which improved the broader demand outlook. At the same time, elevated prices have begun to curb physical demand in China. Shanghai copper inventories climbed to an eight-year high for this period, while Chinese smelters exported excess metal at discounts as importers pushed back against high international premiums. On the supply side, disruptions persisted, with Chilean copper output falling 7.18% year-on-year in November and halted operations at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine adding to supply risks. Major banks remain constructive but cautious, with Goldman Sachs lifting its first-half 2026 forecast while warning that prices above $13,000 per ton may not be sustainable. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest marginally lower by 0.13% at 14,449 contracts alongside a ?11.1 price gain. Copper has support at 1,266.9; a break below could test 1,252.3. Resistance is seen at 1,295.3, and a move above this level could open the way toward 1,309.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1252.3-1309.1.

* Copper gains due to concerns about tightened supply and bets on future surging demand from the AI boom.

* The premium of LME cash against the three-month copper contract widened to $55, its five-week high.

* Record copper prices, with LME copper climbing above $13,000 per ton, have sharply dampened physical demand in China

Zinc

Zinc prices edged higher, settling up 0.55% at 309.05, supported by tightening inventories and concerns over near-term supply disruptions. Sentiment was aided by speculative buying amid expectations of reduced concentrate availability, as several Chinese mines are scheduled for routine maintenance shutdowns. In particular, a southwest China mine, having largely met its annual production target, is expected to cut zinc concentrate output by around 700 tonnes of metal content during maintenance, while another central China mine is also planning downtime, limiting effective supply. However, upside remained capped by lingering demand concerns linked to mixed economic signals from China. While factory activity unexpectedly expanded in December, property investment and sales continued to deteriorate, weighing on the broader consumption outlook for galvanised products. Data showed China’s zinc output rose 13.3% year-on-year to 654,000 tonnes in November, indicating ample refined supply despite mine-side constraints. Globally, refined zinc production is projected to rise 2.7% to 13.8 million tonnes in 2025. ILZSG data showed the global zinc market deficit narrowed in October, while the first ten months of 2025 recorded a surplus of 76,000 tonnes. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 0.79% to 3,744 contracts alongside a Rs.1.7 price rise. Zinc is finding support at 307.5; a break below could test 305.8. On the upside, resistance is seen at 311.1, with a move above potentially extending gains toward 313.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 305.8-313.

* Zinc gains supported by tightening inventories and ongoing supply disruptions.

* China's factory activity unexpectedly grew in December, snapping a record eight straight months of decline.

* On the SHFE, zinc inventories rose 5.8% from last Friday, signaling further tightening.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices recorded a strong advance, settling higher by 2.77% at 317.4, as investors reassessed expectations of tightening supply against a backdrop of resilient global demand. Sentiment was supported by improving confidence in China’s macro outlook after the central bank reiterated its commitment to an accommodative policy stance, including reserve requirement and interest rate cuts in 2026, alongside measures to boost domestic demand and stabilize growth. Policy signals aimed at preventing overcapacity in metal production further underpinned prices, with China expected to breach its 45-million-ton output cap, limiting scope for smelter expansion next year. Supply-side constraints remained prominent. Chinese smelters, constrained by output caps, diverted more material to the domestic market, contributing to a 9.2% year-on-year drop in exports in November. Globally, high energy costs, equipment issues, bauxite sourcing challenges, and geopolitical risks disrupted operations in countries including Iceland, Mozambique, and Australia. While SHFE aluminium inventories rose 10.8% from late December, stocks at major Japanese ports declined 5.2%, indicating tighter availability in some consuming regions. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling 0.93% to 3,300 contracts while prices rose by Rs.8.55. Aluminium is finding support near 312; a break below could test 306.5. On the upside, resistance is seen at 320.5, with a move above potentially extending gains toward 323.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 306.5-323.5.

* Aluminium gains as investors reassessed expectations around tightening supply and robust global demand.

* Support also seen as investor optimism reflects early signs of economic stabilization after Beijing’s support for key sectors.

* China's central bank said it will cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates in 2026 to keep liquidity ample.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices edged marginally higher on Wednesday, settling up 0.05% at Rs.17,614, supported by below-normal arrivals and sustained domestic as well as international demand. Market sentiment remains firm as both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced inventories, limiting near-term availability ahead of new crop arrivals. Weather-related yield losses in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka due to unseasonal rains have further tightened supply, although upside remains capped by expectations of higher acreage in the ongoing sowing season. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up about 4% year-on-year, with fresh production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Dried output is estimated at 90 lakh bags versus 82.5 lakh bags last season, though lower carry-forward stocks restrict the net increase in availability. Maharashtra’s production is expected to rise to 54 lakh bags despite localized 15–20% yield losses, while other producing states together may contribute around 40 lakh bags. Export demand remains robust, particularly from Europe and the US, supported by IPM-compliant produce, while imports have declined sharply on a year-on-year basis. In spot markets, Nizamabad prices slipped marginally by 0.06% to Rs.16,740.3. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 1.03%. Turmeric has immediate support at Rs.17,314, with further downside seen near Rs.17,012. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs.18,058, and a decisive break above this level could open the path toward Rs.18,500.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 17012-18500.

* Turmeric gains as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* It is reported that both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced their stocks, ahead of the new crop supply.

* Yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16740.3 Rupees dropped by -0.06 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices strengthened, settling higher by 0.7% at Rs.21,690, supported by weather-related disruptions and delayed sowing across key producing regions. In Gujarat, sowing has reached about 3.99 lakh hectares, down sharply by 14.2% year-on-year, as uneven rainfall has slowed field preparation, marking one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years. Arrivals at Unjha remained extremely low, with premium-quality cumin attracting higher prices. Supply tightness due to logistical constraints in India and the Middle East, along with some improvement in demand from Gulf countries and China, continued to lend support, though buying remains price-sensitive. However, the upside appears capped amid comfortable existing stocks and subdued export activity. Farmers are estimated to be holding around 20 lakh bags, with only 3–4 lakh bags likely to be traded before season-end, implying a sizeable carry-forward stock of nearly 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is estimated lower at 90–92 lakh bags versus 1.10 crore bags last year, reflecting reduced sowing. Export performance remains weak, with shipments during April–October 2025 down over 13% year-on-year. Spot prices in Unjha edged marginally lower by 0.04% to Rs.22,007.35. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, as open interest declined by 7.02% while prices rose Rs.150. Jeera has immediate support at Rs.21,250, with further downside near Rs.20,810. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.21,990, and a sustained move above this level could test Rs.22,290.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20810-22290.

* Jeera gains as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* However upside seen limited due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 398,596 hectares down by 14.20% compared to last years 464,570 hectares.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22007.35 Rupees dropped by -0.04 percent.

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