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We expect quarterly results to be a mixed bag for logistics companies under our coverage, with seasonality partially offsetting the elevated competitive intensity faced by organized players. GST e-way bill volumes have grown 20% YoY in Q4FY25, suggesting a strong uptick in volumes for B2B operators. Accordingly, we bake in Delhivery’s PTL segment reporting 20% YoY revenue growth, followed by Blue Dart Express (10% revenue; +12% volume). We downgrade TCI Express to REDUCE from Add and slash Dec-25E TP by 26% to Rs650 as we expect the company to report muted growth over FY25-27E (volume CAGR of 4%) due to continued consumption slowdown and intense competition from new-age operators. While TCIE’s asset light business model continues to shield its profitability, it will need to focus on growth for us to turn constructive on the stock. For VRL, we account for top-line growth of 10% YoY driven by uptick in realizations (+9% YoY), while volumes remain tepid.

TCI Express (Downgrade to REDUCE from Add; cut TP by 26% to Rs650)

Owing to elevated competitive pressures and consumption slowdown impacting both, SME and institutional customers, we expect a muted volume trajectory for TCIE in the near term (4% over FY25-27E). For Q4, we expect revenue to decline 2% YoY and EBITDA to degrow 28% YoY. We bake in margin decline of ~375bps owing to negative operating leverage and inflationary costs. Due to the tepid revenue trajectory, we cut FY26E/27E EBITDA by 4%/11%, respectively. Return ratios are likely to contract as benefits of network automation are unlikely to be realized in the near term (Exhibit 6). We downgrade TCIE to REDUCE with revised down Dec-25E TP of Rs650 (DCF method).

Delhivery (BUY; Rs400)

We expect 10% YoY revenue growth with the PTL and B2C express segments growing 20% and 8% YoY, respectively. Incremental volume growth, especially in PTL, is likely to lead to reported EBITDA margins expanding by 220bps YoY, while remaining flattish sequentially owing to a seasonally muted quarter for the B2C segment. We highlight proforma financials following the Ecom Express acquisition and estimated cost synergies (Exhibit 7), and await management commentary on its network integration plan going forward. We retain BUY with Dec-25E TP of Rs400 (based on DCF method).

VRL Logistics (BUY; Rs600)

We expect VRL’s realizations to improve 9% YoY on the back of price hike undertaken in Q2FY25; however, volume growth would remain tepid (+1% YoY) as industry participants take time to follow suit. We bake in gross margin expansion of ~470bps YoY on the back of higher bulk procurement of fuel and lower usage of external vehicles; this results in EBITDA/PAT growing 40%/84% YoY, respectively. We, however, trim FY26E/27E PAT by 5%/4%, respectively, due to only a gradual volume recovery and elevated debt levels. We maintain BUY with revised down Dec-25E TP of Rs600 (DCF methodology).

Blue Dart Express (ADD; Rs7,100)

We estimate volume growth of 12% YoY driven by the surface and B2C segments, while blended realizations are likely to decline 2% YoY. Optimal utilization of freighters should result in sequential EBITDA margin expansion of ~90bps. We expect consol PAT to grow 10% YoY on the back of decent operating performance as well as finance costs declining by 8% YoY. Commentary on ramp up of new freighters and growth strategy in surface express remain key imponderables. BDE is currently trading at -1 STD 2YF EV/EBITDA multiple.

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