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USD/INR

Market Commentary:

* The weakness in the Dollar continues, as the US yields retreat after the FED policy meeting. The 10 year bond yields fell below the 4.60% mark, consequently pushing the Dollar index lower towards the 105.00 handle. The USDINR faced rejection near the 83.60 handle and moved lower towards the end of the session .

* On the Daily chart we can see consolidation in a range (between 83.37-83.60) since the past three sessions. Resistances for the pair lie at 83.60, 83.75 while supports are expected around 83.36-83.30 (5,13,21 day EMA cluster) and 83.20 the recent swing low.

* The daily stochastic oscillator formed a bullish crossover, while the 20 period z-score of the difference between the 8 and the 21 day moving averages, is placed in the neutral zone.

* Notable strikes set for expiration in the coming week are 83.5250.

* Bloomberg’s FX forecast model suggests there is a 7.3% probability that the pair will breach above 83.70 while there is a 6.5% chance that it will breach below 83.20

EUR/INR

Market Commentary:.

* On Wednesday, European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane, pointed that the inflation has declined at a faster pace that the central bank had expected. He also mentioned that the central bank will not pre-commit to any particular rate path. He also mentioned that, policy rates will stay restrictive as long as needed. The EURINR pair continued to trade in a range for the fourth session straight

* The EUR/INR pair has been finding resistance ~89.50, which is placed around the 21 day EMA.

* The daily stochastic oscillator has entered the overbought regime and the 20 Day Z-score of the difference between the 8 and 21 day moving average, has moved above the zeroline. A short term down move will be confirmed, only if the stochastic forms a bearish crossover and moves below the overbought zone.

* Notable strikes set to expire today for EUR/USD lie at 1.0725, 1.0730 and 1.0735.

* Bloomberg’s FX forecast model suggests there is a 10.4% chance that the pair will breach above 90.00 today while there is a 9.1% probability that it will breach below 88.70.

GBP/INR

Market Commentary:

* The GBP/USD continues to trade on a stronger note courtesy weaker Dollar. The GBPINR pair on Wednesday, failed to break above the previous session high and settled around at 104.46.

* The pair continues to remain above the short term (5,13,21) day exponential moving average. The 5 and 13 Day MA cluster which is placed around, 104.30 is expected to act as an immediate support level, followed by 104.00. On the upside the resistances are placed near 104.60-104.90

* The daily stochastic indicator has moved closer to the Overbought regime, while the 20 period Z-score of the 8 and 21 day moving averages, remain in the neutral territory.

* Notable strikes set to expire today for GBP/USD lie at 1.2500, 1.2513, 1.2550 and 1.2600.

* Bloomberg’s FX forecast model suggests there is a 10.5% probability that the pair will breach above 105.02, while there is a 9.6% probability that it will breach below 103.91.

JPY/INR

Market Commentary:

* The Yen extends its gains against the Dollar, amid the suspected BoJ intervention, and the cool off in the US bond yields. Consequently helping the JPYINR move higher. On Thursday we saw the pair move higher towards the 54.00 mark, after a positive open.

* The 5 day moving average has hinged higher, aligning itself for a possible up move. The immediate hurdle for the pair lies around the 0.54 handle (21 period moving average), a breach above this level will push the pair higher towards 0.5450 zone. Immediate support lies at 0.5300.

*  The Stochastic oscillator has moved above the oversold regime, indicating an possible short term up move in the pair.

* Notable strikes set to expire today are at 151.35, 151.95 , 154.00, 154.20.

* Bloomberg’s FX forecast model suggests there is a 9.8% probability that the pair will breach above 0.5342 tomorrow while there is a 10% probability that it will breach below 0.5262.

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