USDINR Report on 17th December 2025 by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
USDINR
* Rupee hit record low below 91 against Dollar, pressured by relentless FII selling and rising global risk aversion.
* Persistent foreign fund outflows amid US–India trade frictions remain the key drag on Indian Rupee sentiment.
* FIIs sold Indian equities worth Rs.21,073.83 crore this month, remaining net sellers across all trading sessions.
* Better-than-expected November trade deficit data failed to revive Rupee as broader capital outflows dominated sentiment.
* India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed sharply to $24.53 billion from $41.68 billion in October.
* Goods exports rose 19% year-on-year in November, driven largely by a 22.6% jump in shipments to the US.
* HSBC Composite PMI eased to 58.9, indicating continued expansion but at a slower pace across manufacturing and services.
* Cooling US labor market keeps Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations alive, influencing global currency dynamics.
* CME FedWatch shows a 67% probability of at least two US rate cuts by end-2026.
* Technically, USDINR trades at record highs with bullish bias supported by rising 20-day EMA near 90.06.
* RSI at 73.89 signals overbought conditions, suggesting stretched momentum and possible near-term consolidation.
* Immediate support seen near 90.06 and 90.00, while sustained strength could push USDINR toward 91.60 followed by 92.20.

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