IGI Logo

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) released the subscriber data for Sep’24.

The key highlights are as follows:

* Wireless subs: RJio inactive base clean-up led declines; BSNL’s gains moderate

* Industry’s wireless subscribers declined by further 10.1m MoM (after 5.8m decline in Aug’24), largely due to the clean-up of inactive subscribers by RJio and the residual impact of SIM/spend consolidation after the tariff hikes by three private telcos in Jul’24. Excluding IoT devices, wireless subs base declined by ~10.7m in Sep’24 (~19m in 2QFY25).

* BSNL was once again the only telco to gain wireless subs, while RJio/Bharti/VIL lost further 8.0m/1.4m/1.6m wireless subs in Sep’24. However, BSNL’s net adds moderated to a modest 0.8m (vs. 2.5m in Aug’24), indicating stabilization of the SIM consolidation impact.

* RJio’s wireless subs declined 12.7m in 2QFY25 (vs. 6.8m net adds QoQ). Similarly, Bharti lost 5.5m wireless subs in 2QFY25, but paying subs decline was lower at ~2.9m. VIL’s losses accelerated to 4.8m subscribers (vs. 2.5m decline in 1Q), while BSNL gained 6.3m subs in 2QFY25.

* Mobile Number Portability (MNP) requests remained elevated at 13.3m in Sep’24 (vs. 12.3m monthly average in CY24TD).

* VLR subs: Active subscriber base declines on higher churn for Vi

* VLR (or peak active) subscriber base fell ~1.5m MoM (vs. 1.9m net adds MoM).

* Despite ~8m wireless subs decline, RJio’s VLR subs base inched up 1.7m MoM in Sep’24, indicating a clean-up of inactive subscribers.

* Similar to Jul-Aug’24, Bharti and VIL’s VLR base declined again in Sep’24 by 1.3m and 3.1m, respectively, while BSNL gained further 1.2m VLR subs (though moderated from ~4m additions in Aug’24).

* Mobile Broadband (MBB) subs: RJio’s inactive subs base cleanup led declines

* Industry’s MBB subs declined 5.6m in Sep’24 (vs. 4m monthly MBB net adds on average in CY24TD), driven by an ~8m decline for RJio.

* Bharti’s MBB net adds remained muted at 0.4m in Sep (vs. ~2.1m monthly net add on average in CY24TD) and Vi’s MBB subs inched up 0.4m MoM in Sep’24, after two months of declines.

* BSNL added further 1.5m MBB subs, but the pace of subscriber additions moderated (from 4.6m/6.6m in Jul/Aug’24).

* For 2QFY25, industry MBB subs inched up by a modest ~2m (vs. +15m QoQ) as BSNL’s robust ~13m net adds were offset by a clean-up in RJio’s inactive base (- 12.8mn) and a moderation in Bharti’s MBB net adds to 3.4m (vs. 7.8m QoQ).

* Subscriber mix continued to improve, with ~78% of industry’s wireless subs now opting for MBB data (up ~430bp YoY). Bharti’s MBB subs proportion was up ~580bp YoY at ~72%.

* Fixed Broadband (FBB) subs: Net additions accelerate for Bharti and RJio

* Industry FBB subs increased by 790k MoM to 43.6m (+18% YoY), driven largely by robust 620k net adds for RJio and ramp-up in Bharti’s net adds to 190k, likely driven by ramp-up in AirFiber offering

* RJio added 1.75m FBB subs (vs. 1.14m QoQ), while Bharti added 0.44m FBB subs (vs. 0.31m QoQ) in 2QFY25. Bharti and RJio’s combined market share in FBB increased further to ~52% (vs. 49% QoQ). We expect the duo’s market share to increase further, driven by the ramp-up in FWA offerings.

For More Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd Disclaimer http://www.motilaloswal.com/MOSLdisclaimer/disclaimer.html

SEBI Registration number is INH000000412