Spot Gold is likely to hold support near $3260 and rise towards $3330 amid trade tariff concerns - ICICI Direct
Bullion Outlook
* Spot Gold is likely to hold support near $3260 and rise towards $3330 amid trade tariff concerns. US President has increased the tariffs of Canada to 35% from 25%. Today, US administration is likely to come with tariffs for other major trading nations. This tariff uncertainty and geopolitical risk could bring safe haven buying in the bullions and limit its downside. Meanwhile, investors will eye a key on US jobs data to get further clarity. Better than expected job growth numbers would further lower the odds of September rate cut and restrict its upside.
* On the data front, a strong put base at 3250 would act as strong support for prices. On the upside 3400 call strike has higher OI. MCX Gold October is expected to hold support near RS.98,000 and move higher towards RS.99,600 level. Only move below RS.98,000, price trend would turn bearish.
* MCX Silver Sep is expected to slip towards RS.108,200, as long as it trades under RS.112,200 level.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to trade lower amid risk off tone across the global markets. Exclusion of tariff on refined copper would bring down the COMEX copper premiums and lower its demand outlook. Additionally, strong dollar and rising inventory levels on LME would also weigh on metal prices. Moreover, expectation of contraction in global manufacturing activity would also hurt its demand prospects. Meanwhile, investors will eye on key economic numbers from US to get further clarity.
* MCX Copper August is expected to slide towards RS.870 as long as it trades under RS.884 level. A break below RS.870 level prices may turn weak towards RS.865 level
* MCX Aluminum July is expected to face resistance near RS.254 level and correct towards RS.248 level. MCX Zinc July is likely to move south towards RS.262 level as long as it stays under RS.268 level.
Energy Outlook
* Crude oil is likely to trade lower on heightened US tariff threats, which could hurt global energy demand. Higher tariffs could slow economic growth and higher interest rates would dampen oil demand. Additionally, growing bets of supply increase from OPEC+ in its next meeting would improve oil supplies and restrict its upside. On the other hand, threats of sanction on Russia might tighten oil supplies and limit the downside in price. Meanwhile, investors will eye on key US jobs data, which could give more clarity on the monetary outlook.
* On the data front, 65 put strike has higher OI concentration which would act as key support. On the upside 75 and 70 call strike, has higher OI concentration, which would likely to act as immediate hurdle. MCX Crude oil Aug is likely to dip towards RS.5900 level, as long as it stays below RS.6200 level.
* MCX Natural gas August future is expected to consolidate in between RS.260 RS.278. A move above RS.278 it would turn bullish.
https://secure.icicidirect.com/Content/StaticData/Disclaimer.html
SEBI Registration number INZ000183631
