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Gold

Gold prices edged marginally lower by 0.03% to settle at Rs.135,761, weighed by late profit booking after a strong rally driven by expectations of further US interest rate cuts in 2026 and sustained safe-haven demand. The metal gained nearly 65% last year, with momentum accelerating after the US administration rolled out broad global tariffs from late April. Despite the minor correction, gold continues to draw solid support from elevated geopolitical risks, dovish rate expectations, aggressive central bank buying, and steady inflows into gold-backed ETFs. Minutes from the December FOMC meeting showed growing openness among policymakers toward monetary easing if inflation continues to cool, though divisions persist over the timing and scale of rate cuts. Geopolitical tensions remain supportive, with renewed Russia–Ukraine attacks and tighter US enforcement on Venezuela’s oil trade sustaining risk aversion. Physical demand improved as prices corrected from record highs, with gold trading at premiums in India and China for the first time in nearly two months. China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong more than doubled month-on-month in November, while the People’s Bank of China extended its gold buying streak for a thirteenth consecutive month. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 1.12% to 15,577 alongside a Rs.43 price decline. Gold has immediate support at Rs.135,140, with further downside seen near Rs.134,525. Resistance is placed at Rs.136,735, and a sustained move above this level could open the path toward Rs.137,715.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 134525-137715.

* Gold pared gains on late profit booking after prices climbed bolstered by the prospect of further US interest rate cuts.

* The persistent Israel-Iran conflict and the ongoing US-Venezuela tensions could boost the Gold price.

* Fed’s minutes revealed increasing openness among policymakers toward monetary easing if inflation continues to cool.

Silver

Silver prices extended gains, settling 0.19% higher at Rs.236,316, supported by its designation as a critical mineral in the US, structurally tight supply, low inventories, and rising industrial as well as investment demand. Expectations of easier monetary policy also underpinned sentiment, with markets pricing in two additional US interest rate cuts in 2026. Uncertainty around the potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair when Jerome Powell’s term ends in May has added to expectations of a more dovish policy stance. Geopolitical tensions, including renewed Russia–Ukraine hostilities and persistent US–Venezuela frictions, further reinforced silver’s safe-haven appeal. On the supply side, the global silver market faces fresh risks after Chinese stockpiles fell to their lowest levels in a decade. Inventories linked to the Shanghai Futures Exchange have dropped to the lowest since 2015, following record Chinese exports exceeding 660 tonnes in October that were shipped largely to London to ease a market squeeze. Despite this, liquidity conditions remain tight in London, with elevated borrowing costs. LBMA data showed silver holdings in London vaults rose 3.5% month-on-month in November, reflecting recent inflows but still historically tight conditions. From a technical perspective, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising sharply by 4.3% to 13,738 alongside a Rs.443 price increase. Silver has immediate support at Rs.232,540, with further downside risk toward Rs.228,770. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.242,540, and a sustained move above this level could open the path toward Rs.248,770.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 228770-248770.

* Silver gains amid its designation as a critical US mineral, tight supply, low stockpiles, and rising industrial and investment demand.

* Fed Governor Stephen Miran voted against the action in favor of a jumbo rate cut.

* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City’s Jeff Schmid dissented in favor of leaving rates unchanged.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined by 1.3% to settle at Rs.5,155, as expectations of a persistent global supply surplus outweighed geopolitical risks in several OPEC+ producing nations. While supply disruptions in Venezuela intensified due to a partial US blockade forcing well shut-ins, the broader market remained pressured by rising production and ample inventories. Supply of the five North Sea crude grades underpinning dated Brent is set to increase to about 575,000 bpd in February from 565,000 bpd in January, adding to near-term supply availability. OPEC+ is widely expected to reaffirm its pause on further production increases at its upcoming meeting, reflecting mounting evidence of oversupply. Despite this, US output continues to surge, with October production hitting a record 13.87 million bpd. Output gains were broad-based, led by New Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico. Although US crude inventories posted a larger-than-expected draw of 1.93 million barrels in the latest week, overall commercial stocks remain comfortably above historical averages at 423 million barrels. The IEA marginally narrowed its 2026 surplus outlook by lifting demand growth forecasts and trimming supply growth, while OPEC maintained its expectations for steady demand growth next year. However, near-term balances remain loose. From a technical perspective, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 4.6% to 19,084 alongside a Rs.68 price decline. Crude oil has immediate support at Rs.5,106, with further downside seen near Rs.5,056. Resistance is placed at Rs.5,224, and a move above this level could open the path toward Rs.5,292.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5056-5292.

* Crude oil dropped as expectations for a supply surplus offset geopolitical risks to production in several OPEC+ nations.

* US crude oil inventories, fell by 1.934 million barrels, the largest weekly drop since mid-November.

* Gasoline stocks rose sharply by 5.845 million barrels, far exceeding forecasts of 1.9 million

Natural gas

Natural gas prices edged higher by 1% to settle at Rs.332.8, supported by expectations of stronger demand in the coming weeks amid colder weather outlooks and sustained record gas flows to LNG export facilities. However, near-term weather signals remain mixed, with meteorologists forecasting above-normal temperatures across much of the US through January 14. Heating Degree Days declined from 439 to 413, indicating slightly reduced immediate heating demand. Reflecting this, LSEG projected average gas demand in the lower 48 states, including exports, to ease from 137.8 bcfd this week to 134.5 bcfd next week, marginally lower than earlier estimates. On the supply side, production continues to expand aggressively. LSEG data showed average US natural gas output climbed to a record 110.1 bcfd in December, surpassing November’s previous high. The EIA reinforced this outlook, projecting dry gas production to rise steadily to 107.7 bcfd in 2025 and further to 109.1 bcfd in 2026. Storage data remained bearish, with the EIA reporting a withdrawal of just 38 bcf for the week ended December 26, well below market expectations and far smaller than both last year’s draw and the five-year average. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling 2.48% to 24,660 while prices gained Rs.3.3. Natural gas has immediate support at Rs.325.3, with a further downside risk toward Rs.317.7. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.337.6, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward ?342.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 317.7-342.3.

* Natural gas rose supported by expectations of higher demand and record gas flows to LNG export plants.

* Dry gas production will rise to 109.1 bcfd in 2026, exceeding the record 103.6 bcfd in 2023 - EIA

* EIA said energy firms pulled 38 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended December 26.

Copper

Copper prices edged lower, settling down by 0.42% at Rs.1,287.1, pressured by softer US macro data after the Manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 51.8 in December, easing from November and marking the weakest expansion in the current five-month growth phase. Despite this, downside remained limited as supply-side risks persisted. Mine disruptions in key producing regions and tariff-related concerns have prompted traders to accelerate shipments into the US, tightening availability in other markets. Fundamentally, sentiment drew support from China, where factory activity unexpectedly returned to growth in December after eight months of contraction, supported by pre-holiday orders. On the supply front, Capstone Copper announced that output at its Mantoverde mine in Chile will be reduced to about 30% following strike action, while Chile’s national copper output fell 7.18% year-on-year in November. Additional disruptions at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine further constrained supply. However, these bullish factors were partly offset by a 30.1% rise in Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories and a reported refined copper surplus of 122,000 tonnes during the first ten months of 2025, according to ICSG. China’s copper imports continued to weaken, falling 2.51% in November, while Yangshan premiums eased, reflecting softer import demand. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 6.87% to 14,224 as prices declined by Rs.5.4. Copper has support at Rs.1,266, with further downside toward Rs.1,245, while resistance stands at Rs.1,314, and a breakout could test Rs.1,341.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1245-1341.

* Copper declined as US Manufacturing PMI eased to 51.8 in December from 52.2.

* However, downside seen limited underpinned by mine disruptions and concerns around tariffs

* Capstone Chile mine to run at 30% of normal output during strike

Zinc

Zinc prices edged lower, settling down by 0.47% at Rs.306.6, weighed by renewed concerns over demand after a series of weak economic indicators from China. Adding to the pressure, China’s zinc output in November rose 13.3% year-on-year to 654,000 metric tons, underscoring ample near-term supply. However, the downside remained limited as sentiment improved following better-than-expected growth in China’s manufacturing activity in December, which marked the first expansion after eight consecutive months of contraction. Support also emerged from supply-side considerations and speculative buying. Several zinc mines in China are planning routine maintenance shutdowns, which will reduce production days and weigh on zinc concentrate availability. In particular, a mine in southwest China, having largely met its annual production target, is scheduled for maintenance that could cut zinc concentrate output by around 700 metric tons in metal content. Additionally, zinc inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses declined 4.3% from December 26, signaling some tightening in visible stocks. Zinc concentrate production is also expected to decline on a month-on-month basis, partially offsetting concerns from higher refined output expectations. From a global perspective, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the refined zinc market deficit narrowed to 600 tons in October. Technically, the market remains under fresh selling, with open interest rising 5.95% to 5,522 as prices fell by Rs.1.45. Zinc finds support at Rs.304.9, with further downside toward Rs.303.2, while resistance is seen at Rs.309.1, and a break above could test Rs.311.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 303.2-311.6.

* Zinc dropped dragged down by revived demand concerns triggered by a raft of remaining weak data in China.

* However, downside seen limited on worries about tighter supply.

* China’s zinc output in November rose 13.3 percent year-on-year to 654,000 metric tons.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices moved higher, settling up by 1.83% at Rs.302.75, supported by a tightening supply outlook and expectations of firm long-term demand. Sentiment was buoyed by China’s continued enforcement of a 45 million tonne cap on smelting capacity, a policy aimed at preventing overcapacity and easing deflationary pressures on manufacturers. As domestic demand improves, this cap is expected to constrain incremental supply. Reflecting this shift, Chinese producers increasingly diverted capped output to the local market, leading aluminium exports to decline 9.2% year-on-year in November. Supply-side concerns were reinforced by challenges faced by Chinese smelters attempting to expand capacity overseas, particularly in Indonesia, where higher energy costs and regulatory risks have delayed new projects. On the inventory front, stocks in SHFE edged up 1.0% from December 26, while aluminium inventories at major Japanese ports fell 5.2% month-on-month to 312,100 tonnes, indicating regional tightness. Globally, primary aluminium output rose marginally by 0.5% year-on-year in November to 6.086 million tonnes, according to the International Aluminium Institute. On the demand side, China’s imports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products fell 14% year-on-year in November, though cumulative imports for the first eleven months of 2025 remained 4.4% higher than last year. Technically, the market is under short covering, as open interest declined 5.23% to 4,166 while prices gained Rs.5.45. Aluminium has support at Rs.298.7, with further downside toward Rs.294.4, while resistance is seen at Rs.306.1, and a move above could test Rs.309.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 294.4-309.2.

* Aluminium prices rose tracking LME prices touched $3,000 a ton for the first time in more than three years.

* Prices gained due to a tightening supply outlook and bets on long-term demand.

* Prices gained support from a cap on Chinese smelting capacity of 45 million tons, which is expected to tighten supply as demand climbs.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices strengthened sharply, settling up by 3.85% at Rs.18,486, supported by below-normal arrivals and sustained domestic as well as export demand. Market sentiment remains firm as both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced inventories, providing a strong base ahead of the new crop’s arrival. Yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka have been impacted by excess rains, tightening near-term availability. However, upside may be capped by higher acreage encouraged by favourable rainfall during the current sowing season. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, around 4% higher year-on-year, with fresh production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. At the all-India level, dried turmeric output is estimated at 90 lakh bags versus 82.5 lakh bags last season, though lower carry-forward stocks restrict the effective rise in availability. In Maharashtra, despite 15–20% yield losses in affected pockets due to waterlogging and disease, higher acreage is expected to lift dried output to 54 lakh bags. Other key states together may contribute around 40 lakh bags, up from 35 lakh bags last year. Export demand remains healthy, particularly from Europe and the US, supported by rising IPM adoption and export-grade supplies. On the trade front, turmeric exports during April–October 2025 rose 2.05% year-on-year, while imports declined sharply by 48.05%, supporting domestic prices. In Nizamabad spot market, prices gained 1.05% to Rs.16,321.7. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest up 0.1% at 14,795 alongside a Rs.686 price rise. Support is seen at Rs.18,166, with downside to Rs.17,846, while resistance stands at Rs.18,776 and a breakout could test Rs.19,066.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 17846-19066.

* Turmeric gains as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* Yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16321.7 Rupees gained by 1.05 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices strengthened further, settling up by 1.45% at Rs.22,730, as weather-related disruptions and delayed sowing continue to underpin market sentiment. Sowing progress in Gujarat remains significantly behind normal, with acreage as of December 29 estimated at 3.99 lakh hectares, down 14.2% year-on-year, reflecting uneven rainfall and poor field readiness. Gujarat is witnessing one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years, which has heightened supply concerns. At Unjha, arrivals stayed very low, and premium-quality cumin continued to command higher prices, although spot prices there eased marginally by 0.11% to Rs.22,368.4. Despite near-term firmness, upside remains capped by comfortable carry-forward stocks and muted export demand. Farmers are estimated to be holding around 20 lakh bags, of which only 3–4 lakh bags may be traded before season-end, leaving sizeable carry-forward stocks of nearly 16 lakh bags. Export demand from Gulf countries and China has shown marginal improvement but remains price-sensitive, while overall overseas buying is subdued. Jeera exports during April–October 2025 declined 13.21% year-on-year, with October shipments also lower on both annual and monthly comparisons. Production for the current season is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags versus 1.10 crore bags last year, mainly due to reduced sowing. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest down 4.38% at 3,930 alongside a sharp Rs.325 price rise. Support is seen at Rs.22,470, with further downside to Rs.22,190, while resistance is placed at Rs.23,010 and a breakout could test Rs.23,270.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 22190-23270.

* Jeera gained as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* However upside seen limited due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 398,596 hectares down by 14.20% compared to last years 464,570 hectares.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22368.4 Rupees dropped by -0.11 percent.

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