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Gold

Gold prices slipped marginally by 0.16% to settle at Rs 100,157 as market sentiment improved after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that tariffs would not be imposed on imported gold bars, easing earlier concerns. Additionally, Trump signed an executive order extending a 90-day pause on higher U.S. tariffs for Chinese imports and scheduled a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15 to discuss ending the Ukraine war, which further reduced safe-haven demand. China’s central bank continued its gold-buying spree for the ninth straight month in July, lifting reserves to 73.96 million fine troy ounces, valued at $243.99 billion. However, physical gold demand in Asia weakened as elevated prices discouraged fresh purchases. In India, dealers quoted between a $9 discount to a $2 premium per ounce over domestic prices, while in China, premiums remained between par and $2. Hong Kong and Singapore saw modest premiums, and Japan traded gold slightly above spot prices. According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand, including OTC trading, rose 3% year-on-year in Q2 2025 to 1,248.8 metric tons, driven by a 78% surge in investment demand. Bar demand climbed 21%, offsetting continued weakness in coins. Physically backed ETFs posted their strongest semi-annual inflows since early 2020. Technically, gold is under long liquidation with open interest down 6.14% to 12,681 contracts. Support is at Rs 99,800, below which prices may test Rs 99,445, while resistance is at Rs 100,455, with a break above potentially leading to Rs 100,755.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 99445-100755.

* Gold dropped after Trump said tariffs will not be placed on imported gold bars, easing jitters.

* Trump has signed an executive order extending a pause in sharply higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports for another 90 days.

* Trump will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15 in Alaska to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.

Silver

Silver prices rose 0.39% to ?113,737 as traders assessed the latest U.S. CPI data, which reinforced expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate cut. Annual headline inflation held at 2.7% in July, slightly below forecasts, while core inflation accelerated to 3.1%. With tariff-related price pressures still contained, the odds of a 25 bps cut in September climbed to nearly 93%. Positive sentiment was also supported by improving industrial metals demand amid renewed U.S.-China trade talks. On the industrial front, China installed over 93 GW of solar capacity in May, marking a record-breaking 300% annual surge ahead of regulatory changes, further underpinning silver’s photovoltaic demand. The silver market continues to face a supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year in 2025, driven by industrial fabrication projected to grow 3% to over 700 Moz — the highest on record. Global demand is expected to remain steady at 1.20 Boz, with gains in industrial applications and retail investment offset by weaker jewelry and silverware demand. Investment demand remains robust. Indian retail silver investment rose 7% year-on-year in H1 2025, while Europe’s recovery from late 2024 continues, aided by reduced secondary market liquidations. Silver ETP holdings surged by 95 Moz in H1, reaching 1.13 Boz — just 7% below the 2021 peak — reflecting bullish price expectations. Technically, silver is under fresh buying, with open interest up 2.04% to 15,864 contracts. Support lies at Rs 113,020, below which prices may test Rs 112,300, while resistance is at Rs 114,205, with a breakout potentially extending gains to Rs 114,670.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 112300-114670.

* Silver gains as traders digested the latest US CPI report.

* US annual inflation held at 2.7% in July, below forecasts of 2.8%

* Rate-cut odds, which stood at 88% late yesterday, have now risen to nearly 93%

Crude oil

Crude oil prices fell 1.14% to ?5,548 as market sentiment turned cautious after U.S. President Trump extended the U.S.–China tariff truce by 90 days and downplayed prospects of a breakthrough in upcoming U.S.–Russia talks on Ukraine. While a deal could ease risks to Russian oil supply, uncertainty remains high, especially after Ukrainian President Zelensky ruled out any territorial concessions. On the macro front, U.S. inflation data reinforced expectations of an impending Federal Reserve rate cut, adding a mixed tone to the outlook. Fundamental cues were also shaped by fresh U.S. inventory data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Crude stocks fell by 3 million barrels to 423.7 million, far exceeding expectations of a 591,000-barrel draw, while stocks at Cushing rose by 453,000 barrels. Refinery runs increased by 213,000 bpd, with utilization rates up 1.5 percentage points. Gasoline inventories dropped by 1.3 million barrels, and distillate stocks fell by 565,000 barrels, contrary to expectations for a build, highlighting strong refining demand. OPEC’s latest monthly report pointed to a tighter oil market in 2026, raising its demand growth forecast to 1.38 million bpd (up 100,000 bpd) while cutting non-OPEC supply growth expectations to 630,000 bpd from 730,000 bpd. Technically, crude oil remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest up 7.02% to 10,709 contracts. Immediate support is seen at Rs 5,504, with a break below likely testing Rs 5,459. Resistance is pegged at Rs 5,620, above which prices could target Rs 5,691.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5459-5691.

* Crude oil fell as Trump extended the US–China tariff truce by 90 days and investors awaited US–Russia talks on Ukraine.

*World oil demand will rise by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 - OPEC

*OPEC+ raised crude output by 335,000 bpd, a further increase reflecting its decisions this year to increase output quotas.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices slumped 5.3% to ?244.7, weighed down by near-record production, healthy storage levels, and milder weather expectations. Output in the Lower 48 states averaged 108.4 bcfd in August, surpassing July’s record of 107.9 bcfd. Despite a hotter-than-normal summer, strong supply has enabled above-average injections into storage, keeping inventories about 5.9% above the five-year average and 4.2% below year-ago levels. Weather forecasts now point to above-normal heat through August 26, but with lower intensity, reducing cooling demand. On the export front, LNG shipments remain robust, with average feedgas flows to U.S. export plants at 16.2 bcfd in August, up from 15.5 bcfd in July. Daily flows are expected to touch 17.0 bcfd, close to April’s record 17.3 bcfd, driven by record deliveries to Venture Global’s Plaquemines facility in Louisiana. U.S. utilities injected 7 bcf of natural gas into storage for the week ending August 1, well below market expectations of a 15 bcf build, reflecting steady consumption. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects record highs for both output and demand in 2025. Dry gas production is expected to rise to 105.9 bcfd in 2025 and 106.4 bcfd in 2026, while domestic consumption is forecast at 91.3 bcfd in 2025 before slightly easing in 2026. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest jumping 18.75% to 46,219 contracts. Immediate support lies at Rs 238.7, with a break lower likely targeting Rs 232.6. Resistance is seen at Rs 256.4, above which prices could test Rs 268.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 232.6-268.

* Natural gas fell pressured by near-record production, strong storage levels, and milder weather forecasts.

*Output in the Lower 48 states averaged 108.4 bcfd in August, up from July’s record 107.9 bcfd.

* Despite a hotter-than-usual summer, robust supply has allowed above-average injections into storag

Copper

Copper prices rose 0.91% to ?892.85 as sentiment improved after the U.S. and China extended their tariff truce, while a softer dollar following U.S. inflation data added support. Supply-side developments were mixed — Chile’s Codelco reported a 17% year-on-year production increase in June to 120,200 metric tons, and regulators approved partial reopening of its El Teniente mine after the recent fatal accident, easing supply concerns. Meanwhile, Antofagasta posted an 11% rise in first-half output to 314,900 metric tons, driven by stronger concentrator performance. On the demand front, China’s July trade data reflected solid activity, with imports of unwrought copper and copper ores rising. Copper concentrate imports climbed 9% to 2.56 million tonnes amid a record-breaking smelting pace, while unwrought copper imports rose 3.4% to 480,000 tonnes, though growth slowed from June’s 9% due to price and supply constraints ahead of U.S. tariff changes. Inventory data pointed to easing tightness, with LME copper stocks reaching a near two-year high and COMEX inventories climbing to 261,180 metric tons, the highest since February 2004. The International Copper Study Group reported a 97,000-ton global surplus in May versus an 80,000-ton deficit in April, with a cumulative surplus of 272,000 tons in the first five months of 2025. Technically, the market is experiencing short covering, with open interest falling 7.26% to 5,955 contracts as prices gained Rs 8.05. Support is at Rs 887.8, with a break lower opening Rs 882.7. Resistance lies at Rs 895.9, and a move above could push prices toward Rs 898.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 882.7-898.9.

* Copper prices rise as relief dominated the mood after the U.S. and China extended their tariff truce.

* Support also seen amid optimism was buoyed by a lower dollar after the release of U.S. inflation data.

* Copper production from Chilean state-run miner Codelco ticked up 17% year-over-year in June.

Zinc

Zinc prices gained 0.91% to ?271, supported by the extension of the U.S.-China trade truce deadline by 90 days, which eased near-term trade tensions and improved demand sentiment ahead of the seasonal autumn import surge for goods such as electronics. Market optimism was tempered by weak Chinese economic data, with producer prices falling more than expected in July and consumer prices flat, signaling subdued domestic demand. Expectations remain for stronger Chinese demand in September, typically a peak season, and a possible further extension of the trade truce. On the supply side, the discount between the cash and three-month zinc contract narrowed to 20 cents from $13, while LME-registered warehouse stocks hit a two-year low. In China, Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventories rose 6.8% week-on-week. Mined output from Teck Resources’ Red Dog Mine dropped 20% in Q1 to 145,300 tonnes, while Australian smelter Nyrstar plans to cut output by 25% this year due to uncompetitive treatment charges from ore shortages. Global market fundamentals tightened, with the International Lead and Zinc Study Group reporting a 44,100-tonne deficit in May, compared with a 17,300-tonne surplus in April. However, the first five months of 2025 still showed an 88,000-tonne surplus, smaller than last year’s 214,000-tonne surplus. China’s refined zinc output in July rose 3% MoM and 23% YoY. Technically, fresh buying was seen as open interest rose 5.35% to 3,173 contracts alongside a Rs 2.45 price gain. Support is at Rs 269.5, with a break lower exposing Rs 267.8, while resistance is at Rs 272.2, above which prices could test Rs 273.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 267.8-273.2.

* Zinc gains boosted by the extension of a U.S.-China trade truce deadline.

* The United States and China extended a tariff truce deadline for another 90 days, easing concerns.

* Zinc supply is tightening as Chinese smelters face pressure to cut production due to capacity outpacing demand.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices rose 0.99% to ?254.85, supported by expectations of robust demand and tighter supply conditions. Supply to European factories remains constrained due to sanctions on major producer Russia, while the U.S. maintains a 50% levy on aluminium imports since June 4, aimed at boosting domestic smelting capacity and reducing import dependency. Although there is market speculation about a possible halving of tariffs or an exemption for Canada, physical price premiums remain high. The August Comex aluminium premium climbed above 70 U.S. cents/lb ($1,543/ton), marking an almost 90% rise since late May. China’s aluminium production trends also influenced sentiment. June 2025 production fell 3.23% MoM, but operating capacity in July is expected to remain elevated. Annual output in June rose 3.4% to 3.81 million tonnes, with January–June output up 3.3% YoY to 22.38 million tonnes. Aluminium exports in July increased to 542,000 tonnes from 489,000 tonnes in June, reflecting steady overseas demand. In Japan, aluminium stocks at three major ports fell 0.4% in July to 315,400 tonnes, suggesting tightening supply in Asia. Demand expectations are further supported by industrial activity, especially in the transport, packaging, power, and construction sectors, while Chinese fiscal support outlook has tempered overly aggressive growth forecasts. Technically, the market is in fresh buying mode, with open interest rising 1.78% to 3,996 contracts alongside a Rs 2.5 price gain. Support is at Rs 253.4, with a break lower exposing Rs 251.7, while resistance is at Rs 256.1; a move above this could open the path to Rs 257.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 251.7-257.1.

* Aluminium gains amid signs of robust demand and expectations of lower supply.

* Supply for European factories is already limited due to sanctions of major producer Russia.

* The physical price premium for the August contract has climbed above $1,543 a metric ton, up nearly 90% since the end of May.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices slipped by 0.36% to ?13,158, pressured by an increase in acreage due to favorable rains during the current sowing season. Market arrivals rose to 13,660 quintals from 11,940 quintals in the previous session, indicating slightly higher availability. On the production front, dry weather has aided timely planting, with acreage expected to rise by 15–20% as other crops offer lower profitability. For the 2024–25 season, the area under turmeric is estimated at 3.30 lakh hectares, up 10% from last year’s 3 lakh hectares. However, production growth may lag as untimely rains could reduce productivity. Yields for the new crop are expected to be 10–15% lower, with the Nanded region notably impacted by smaller rhizomes and some crop rot. In Duggirala market, fresh arrivals are enjoying strong buyer interest, with new stock fetching a premium over older inventory due to better quality. Daily trade volumes remain healthy at 1,000–1,200 bags (70 kg each), with 50–55% of the new crop already traded. Harvesting is still ongoing, supporting steady arrivals in the coming weeks. On the trade front, turmeric exports in April–May 2025 rose 8.37% YoY to 34,162.28 tonnes. May exports surged 28.41% over April 2025, highlighting robust overseas demand. Technically, the market saw fresh selling, with open interest rising 4.17% to 13,880 lots while prices dropped Rs 48. Support is at Rs 13,108, below which Rs 13,056 could be tested, while resistance lies at Rs 13,214, with a breakout opening the path to Rs 13,268.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13056-13268.

*Turmeric prices dropped amid increase in acreage.

*Turmeric acreage is expected to increase by 15-20% this season, supported by low competitive crop prices.

*In April 2025 around 14,956.80 tonnes were exported as against 14,109.10 tonnes in April 2024 showing a rise of 6%.

*In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13778.05 Rupees dropped by -0.31 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices closed marginally lower by 0.03% at ?19,100, after a short-covering bounce from earlier weakness driven by sluggish domestic and export demand post the retail season. The price pressure has been fueled by comfortable supplies, limited overseas buying, and adequate existing stocks. Farmers still hold about 20 lakh bags of cumin, with only 3–4 lakh bags expected to be traded before season-end, leaving an estimated 16 lakh bags as carry-forward stock. Despite geopolitical supply disruptions in Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan, India’s export demand remains tepid, weakening market sentiment. Domestic production for 2025 is pegged at 90–92 lakh bags, down from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat expected to produce 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan 48–50 lakh bags. Globally, production in China has been revised down to 70–80 thousand tonnes due to adverse weather, while Syria may produce 9–10 thousand tonnes, Turkey 10–11 thousand tonnes, and Afghanistan 10–12 thousand tonnes. On the trade front, April–May 2025 exports fell sharply by 27.07% YoY to 42,925.74 tonnes. However, May exports rose 11.26% YoY to 23,206.16 tonnes and surged 17.68% over April 2025, indicating some revival in demand. In Unjha spot market, prices dropped 1.54% to Rs 19,126.25. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest climbing 6.03% to 3,744 lots as prices fell Rs 5. Support is placed at Rs 19,040, below which Rs 18,960 may be tested, while resistance is at Rs 19,170, with a break above opening the path to Rs19,220.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 18960-19220.

* Jeera settled flat due to weak domestic post retail season.

* Only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags

* Total arrivals witnessed a marginal increase to 12,000 bags (55 kg each) as against 11,800 bags on the previous day.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19126.25 Rupees dropped by -1.54 percent.

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