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Gold

Gold prices extended gains, settling higher by 1.29% at Rs.1,39,873, supported by expectations of further Federal Reserve easing and rising geopolitical tensions. US economic growth remained resilient in the third quarter, with GDP expanding faster than the previous period, while labor market indicators signaled continued but gradually moderating job creation. Markets continue to price in two rate cuts in 2026 as inflation cools and employment conditions soften, despite divided views among policymakers. Safe-haven demand was further boosted by geopolitical risks after the US blockaded oil tankers linked to Venezuela. Gold is now up nearly 70% year-to-date, positioning it for its strongest annual performance since 1979, underpinned by sustained central bank buying and strong inflows into gold-backed funds. In the physical market, record prices dampened retail demand. Gold discounts in India widened to over six-month highs, with dealers offering discounts of up to $61 per ounce, compared with $37 last week. In China, discounts narrowed sharply to $15–30 per ounce from last week’s five-year highs of $64, indicating some stabilization in buying interest. Elsewhere, gold traded at small premiums in Singapore and Hong Kong, while Japan saw mixed discounts and premiums. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 1.94% to 14,832 as prices gained Rs.1,776. Gold has support at Rs.1,38,805, with further downside at Rs.1,37,745. Resistance is seen at Rs.1,40,695, and a break above could test Rs.1,41,525.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 137745-141525.

* Gold hits fresh record as rate-cut expectations fuel buying

* US economic growth stays solid despite moderating labor market

* Venezuela tensions lift safe-haven demand across commodity markets

Silver

Silver prices surged sharply, settling up by 7.15% at Rs.2,39,787, driven by expectations of US interest rate cuts and heightened safe-haven demand. Markets are increasingly pricing in two Federal Reserve rate reductions next year as mixed economic indicators strengthen the case for policy easing. While US third-quarter GDP expanded at a robust 4.3% annualized pace, softer consumer confidence in December and flat factory output in November reinforced expectations of a more accommodative stance ahead. Geopolitical tensions further supported sentiment after the US ordered a blockade of sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers, lifting risk premiums across commodity markets. Year-to-date, silver has rallied nearly 149%, underpinned by a structural supply deficit, strong industrial demand, and its designation as a US critical mineral. Supply-side concerns intensified as Chinese silver stockpiles dropped to their lowest level in a decade. Inventories at Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses fell to the lowest since 2015, while Shanghai Gold Exchange volumes hit a more than nine-year low following record Chinese exports exceeding 660 tonnes in October. Despite easing some pressure through shipments to London, liquidity outside China remains tight, with elevated borrowing costs persisting in the London market. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 3.95% to 12,089 while prices jumped Rs.15,997. Silver has support at Rs.2,28,770, with further downside near Rs.2,17,760. Resistance stands at Rs.2,46,395, and a sustained move above this level could open the path toward Rs.2,53,010.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 217760-253010.

* Silver climbed reach a fresh high, driven by expectations of US rate cuts and safe-haven demand.

* Structural supply deficit continues to tighten silver market

* Strong industrial demand supports long-term silver consumption

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined, settling lower by 1.71% at Rs.5,182, pressured by emerging indications of a possible Russia–Ukraine ceasefire and thin trading conditions following the Christmas holiday. Sentiment weakened after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy signaled expectations of talks with US President Donald Trump to discuss ending the war, while reports suggested the Kremlin is reviewing peace proposals and maintaining dialogue with US officials. These developments offset earlier geopolitical support stemming from intensified US actions against Venezuelan oil shipments and a military strike in Nigeria. Despite intermittent supply-side risks and firm US macroeconomic data, WTI remains on track for its steepest annual decline since 2020, down nearly 18%, as markets anticipate a global supply surplus next year driven by rising production within and outside OPEC+. On the fundamentals front, US crude inventories fell by 1.274 million barrels in the week ended December 12, exceeding expectations for a 1.1 million barrel draw. Stocks at Cushing dropped by 742,000 barrels, the largest decline in about two months. However, product inventories were bearish, with gasoline stocks rising sharply by 4.808 million barrels and distillates increasing by 1.712 million barrels. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 0.05% to 18,688 as prices fell Rs.90. Crude oil has support at Rs.5,132, below which prices may test Rs.5,083. Resistance is seen at Rs.5,272, and a move above could open the way toward Rs.5,363.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5083-5363.

* Crude oil slumps as expectations of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire grow

* The US continues efforts to intercept another oil tanker near Venezuela.

* API data showed that crude inventories rose by 2.4 million barrels last week

Natural gas

Natural gas prices rose sharply, settling higher by 3.95% at Rs.352.5, supported by forecasts pointing to colder weather and a pickup in heating demand in the coming weeks. Meteorologists expect a gradual nationwide temperature decline through January 10, with Heating Degree Days rising from 377 to 398, still below the normal 449 but indicating strengthening demand. LSEG projected average gas demand in the lower 48 states, including exports, to increase from 136.1 bcfd this week to 138.5 bcfd over the next two weeks, revising its outlook higher from earlier estimates. Near-record LNG export flows continued to lend support, with average gas deliveries to eight major US LNG terminals rising to 18.4 bcfd so far this month, above November’s previous record. On the supply side, LSEG reported US dry gas output averaging a record 109.8 bcfd in December, exceeding November’s 109.6 bcfd. Globally, Russia’s natural gas production fell 3% year-on-year to 507 bcm during January–November, adding to broader supply-side sensitivity. In storage data, US utilities withdrew 167 bcf in the week ended December 12, taking inventories to 3,579 bcf. Stocks remain 1.7% below last year but 0.9% above the five-year average. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 4.66% to 22,068 as prices gained Rs.13.4. Natural gas has support at Rs.345.5, below which prices may test Rs.338.5. Resistance is seen at Rs.358, and a breakout could lead to Rs.363.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 338.5-363.5.

* Natural gas rose as forecasts pointed to colder weather and increased demand in the weeks ahead.

* Natural gas speculators decreased their net long positions by 75,292 contracts to a total of 164,467.

* Average gas demand in the lower 48 states, would rise from 136.1 bcfd to 138.5 bcfd over the next two weeks.

Copper

Copper prices witnessed a sharp rally, settling higher by 9% at Rs.1,277.95, driven by tight supply conditions and robust US macroeconomic performance. The US economy expanded at its fastest pace in two years during Q3, supported by strong consumer spending, exports, and industrial activity, lending firm support to copper-intensive sectors. Supply-side constraints continued to underpin prices amid years of underinvestment, mine disruptions, and China’s top smelters planning output cuts of over 10% in 2026 to counter negative processing fees. Trade uncertainty and US tariff risks encouraged pre-emptive stockpiling, while a weaker US dollar and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts supported speculative inflows. Structural demand remains intact, led by electric vehicles, renewable energy, power grid expansion, and AI-related infrastructure. Data from the International Copper Study Group showed a preliminary refined copper surplus of around 122,000 tonnes during the first ten months of 2025. Global mine output rose 1.9%, refined production increased 4.4%, while apparent refined usage grew a solid 5.5%. In China, copper imports declined for a second month in November, down 2.51% to 427,000 tonnes, with softer Yangshan premiums indicating weaker import demand, even as concentrate imports remained strong. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 13.78% to 13,077 alongside a Rs.105.5 price gain. Copper has support at Rs.1,212.1, below which prices may test Rs.1,146. Resistance is seen at Rs.1,311.1, and a breakout could extend gains toward Rs.1,344.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1146-1344.

* Copper hits record high amid tightening global supply conditions

* Strong US economic growth boosts demand for copper-intensive sectors.

* China smelters plan over 10% output cut in 2026

Zinc

Zinc prices extended gains, settling higher by 2.59% at Rs.312.95, supported by thin year-end trading, speculative buying, and a weaker US dollar amid concerns over tightening supply. Additional support came from planned maintenance shutdowns at zinc mines in Central and Southwest China, which are expected to reduce zinc concentrate availability, including an estimated 700 tonnes in metal content from December maintenance. Zinc inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 5.7% week-on-week, reinforcing near-term supply tightness, while inventories outside China remain at extremely low levels. However, upside momentum was partially capped by weak macro signals from China. Property investment and sales by floor area continued to deteriorate, while factory output and retail sales growth slowed further in November, reflecting subdued domestic demand. On the supply side, China’s zinc output rose sharply, increasing 13.3% year-on-year to 654,000 tonnes in November, adding pressure to prices. Globally, refined zinc metal production is projected to rise 2.7% to 13.8 million tonnes in 2025. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported the global zinc market deficit narrowed to 600 tonnes in October, while the first ten months of 2025 showed a refined zinc surplus of 76,000 tonnes. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 14.24% to 5,015 alongside a Rs.7.9 price increase. Zinc has support at Rs.307.7, below which prices could test Rs.302.4. Resistance is seen at Rs.315.8, and a sustained move above may open the path toward Rs.318.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 302.4-318.6.

* Zinc gains as thin year-end trade extended momentum for speculative buying on a weaker dollar and worries about tighter supply.

* Zinc mine in Central China is planning a routine maintenance shutdown, resulting in fewer production days.

* China’s zinc output in November rose 13.3 percent year-on-year to 654,000 metric tons.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices strengthened sharply, settling higher by 4.44% at Rs.300.95, tracking gains on the LME and hovering near the highest levels seen in more than three years. The rally was driven by growing concerns over global supply tightness. China, the world’s largest aluminium producer, reiterated its focus on preventing overcapacity to ease deflationary pressures on manufacturers. With the country set to breach its 45 million tonne output cap this year, smelters are expected to refrain from expanding production in 2026, encouraging domestic sales and weighing on exports, which fell 9.2% year-on-year in November. Supply risks were further compounded by challenges facing Chinese smelters’ overseas expansion plans in Indonesia due to higher energy costs and regulatory uncertainties. Globally, high power costs, equipment failures, bauxite sourcing issues, and geopolitical risks have led to the suspension of key smelters in countries including Iceland, Mozambique, and Australia, reinforcing concerns over constrained availability. On the demand side, China’s imports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products fell 14% year-on-year to 240,000 tonnes in November, although cumulative imports for the first 11 months of 2025 rose 4.4% to 3.60 million tonnes. From a technical perspective, the market remains under fresh buying, with open interest rising 20.75% to 4,527 alongside a Rs.12.8 price increase. Aluminium has support at Rs.291.7, below which prices may test Rs.282.4. Resistance is seen at Rs.307.4, and a decisive move above could push prices toward Rs.313.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 282.4-313.8.

* Aluminium gains tracking LME prices, near the highest in over three years amid growing concerns of low supply.

* Smelters forced to halt output growth plans for 2026

* China aluminum exports fall 9.2% year-on-year in November

Turmeric

Turmeric prices moved higher, settling up by 2.55% at Rs.17,128, supported by below-normal arrivals and firm domestic as well as international demand. Market sentiment remains positive as both farmers and stockists have reportedly reduced their holdings significantly, providing a strong base ahead of the new crop arrivals. Supply-side concerns persist after rains adversely impacted yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka, while unseasonal heavy rainfall during August–September caused waterlogging and disease issues in nearly 15% of the area in parts of Marathwada. Despite localized yield losses of 15–20%, higher acreage is expected to lift Maharashtra’s dried turmeric output to about 54 lakh bags from 47.5 lakh bags last season. At the all-India level, turmeric acreage for the 2025–26 season is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up around 4% year-on-year, with dried output projected at 90 lakh bags versus 82.5 lakh bags last year, though lower carry-forward stocks limit the overall increase in availability. Demand conditions remain supportive, with steady buying from Europe and the USA, while quality issues in Indonesia due to a weaker crop have further aided Indian demand. Exports during April–October 2025 rose 2.05% year-on-year to 1.11 lakh tonnes, although October shipments declined on both a monthly and yearly basis. In Nizamabad spot market, prices ended higher at Rs.15,709.85. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest up 0.18% to 13,800 alongside a sharp Rs.426 price rise. Support is seen at Rs.16,726, below which prices may test Rs.16,326, while resistance stands at Rs.17,400, and a breakout could push prices toward Rs.17,674.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16326-17674.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* However downside seen limited as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* It is reported that both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced their stocks

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15709.85 Rupees gained by 0.44 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices strengthened, settling up by 2.4% at Rs.22,405, as weather-related issues and delayed sowing continued to support market sentiment. Sowing progress in Gujarat, the key producing state, remained significantly behind last year, with acreage at 3.24 lakh hectares as of mid-December, down nearly 14% year-on-year, reflecting uneven rainfall and unprepared fields. Arrivals at Unjha stayed very low, and superior-quality cumin continued to command premium prices. Supply tightness was further reinforced by logistical and weather disruptions across India and the Middle East. However, upside remains capped by comfortable existing stocks and subdued export demand, as overseas buyers, particularly from the Gulf and China, remain highly price-sensitive. Traders noted that current export business is largely being met from available stocks, while the conclusion of the retail season has dampened fresh demand. On the supply front, farmers are estimated to be holding around 20 lakh bags, with only 3–4 lakh bags likely to be traded before season-end, implying a carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is projected at 90–92 lakh bags, sharply lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, mainly due to reduced sowing. Gujarat output is estimated at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan may produce 48–50 lakh bags. Export performance remains weak, with April–October 2025 shipments down 13.21% year-on-year. In Unjha spot market, prices eased 0.51% to Rs.21,752.95. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 7.33% to 4,437 alongside a Rs.525 price gain. Support is seen at Rs.21,550, below which prices may test Rs.20,700, while resistance is placed at Rs.22,900, and a breakout could push prices toward Rs.23,400.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20700-23400.

* Jeera gained as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* However upside seen limited due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 324,390 hectares down by 13.95% compared to last years 376,956 hectares.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21752.95 Rupees dropped by -0.51 percent.

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