Rupee to rise tracking Asia FX; importers, RBI curb upside
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The Indian rupee will open higher on Thursday, tracking most Asian peers on upbeat risk, following which it is expected to run into dollar bids from importers.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 82.92-82.94 to the U.S. dollar, compared with 82.97 in the previous session. The domestic currency rose to 82.8650 on Wednesday before finishing at the day's low.
Public sector banks were buyers of dollars, which a few market participants said was for the Reserve Bank of India while others said it was for their importer clients.
"Whatever it may be, its evident that dips (in USD/INR) are finding good buyers," an FX trader at a bank said.
The "back and forth" around the well-defined range of 82.80-83.30 will "just continue", he said.
Asian currencies were mostly higher on Wednesday, while the dollar index hovered just below 104. Asian shares advanced and U.S. equity futures jumped after chip designer Nvidia's first-quarter revenue topped expectations.
Meanwhile, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's January meeting alongside weaker-than-expected bond auction pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher.
The bulk of policymakers at the Fed's latest meeting were concerned about the risks of cutting interest rates too soon, with broad uncertainty about how long borrowing costs should remain at their current level, the minutes showed.
The odds of a Fed rate cut at the May meeting are less than 30% and a March rate cut has been priced out. The Fed is now expected to cut borrowing costs by 86 basis points (bps) this year, a far cry from the 175 bps cuts expected about seven weeks ago.
The U.S. central bank "is in no mood to chop rates just yet", ING Bank said in a note. "The Fed can't feel comfortable cutting with month-on-month rates that annualize to scary levels."
KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 82.99; onshore one-month forward premium at 8 paisa ** Dollar index slips to 103.96 ** Brent crude futures at $83.04 ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.32% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought $358.5 million of Indian shares on Feb. 20
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought $221.6 million of Indian bonds on Feb. 20
