Rupee to remain defiant in face of higher U.S. yields, outflows
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The Indian rupee is likely to open little changed on Tuesday, remaining unresponsive to U.S. Treasury yields, outflows and other external cues amid possible intervention from the Reserve Bank of India.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will open nearly unchanged from 84.0775 in the previous session.
The local currency for two-and-a-half weeks has been stuck in a narrow 10-paisa range with the RBI not wanting the rupee to fall more.
The central bank has been on offer on the dollar/rupee pair via the public sector all through the trading session in recent days.
The RBI's intervention has negated the effect on the rupee of several factors such as foreigners pulling out a large chunk of money from local equities, U.S. Treasury yields making their way to a three-month high, and the dollar's rally.
"I think people have just given up. You just come in the morning and just know that it will be flat opening and then a 1-2 paisa (intraday) range," a currency trader at a bank said.
"Big risk events are lined up. Whether they are big enough to move the rupee, who knows?"
TRUMP WIN BETS LIFT US YIELDS
The yields on the U.S. two-year to 30-year bonds climbed to roughly three-month peaks on Monday. The prospect of Republican candidate Donald Trump winning the U.S. elections has prompted investors to dump U.S. Treasuries and lap up the dollar.
The dollar index is not too far away from its year-to-date high, having rallied 3.5% in October.
Anticipation of this week’s (U.S.) payrolls data and next week’s U.S. election is driving markets, ANZ Bank said in a note.
The U.S. October non-farm payrolls data due this Friday will be observed more keenly than usual considering the Federal Reserve's focus on the labour market.
KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 84.17; onshore one-month forward premium at 9.5 paise ** Dollar index at 104.26 ** Brent crude futures up 0.4% at $71.7 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.27% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $360 mln worth of Indian shares on Oct. 27
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $30.7 mln worth of Indian bonds on Oct. 27
