Rupee set for all-time low on oil fears, pullback in crude from highs offers relief
The Indian rupee is set to weaken toward a lifetime low on Friday, pressured by persistently high oil prices, although a pullback from recent highs in crude is likely to limit the extent of losses.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open near 92.90 versus the U.S. dollar, having settled at 92.63 on Wednesday. India money markets were closed on Thursday due to a local holiday.
The dollar/rupee 1-month NDF rose to a high of 93.80 on Thursday, lifted by a fresh surge in oil prices after Iran retaliated against an Israeli strike by hitting Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City, a key LNG hub, with the damage expected to take years to repair.
Had the level held, it would have implied the rupee opening around 93.30–93.40. However, the NDF pulled back amid the Brent crude cooling off after briefly surging to near $120.
Brent was last at $105.20, retreating after major European nations and Japan signalled willingness to help secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while the United States outlined measures to boost oil supply.
Comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that he had urged Israel not to repeat attacks on Iranian gas infrastructure further weighed on oil prices.
Reflecting volatile oil prices, the dollar index hit a high of 100.30 before slipping back below 99.50. U.S. equity futures pared Thursday's losses.
While the worst of the oil jolt "appears to have faded, offering a sort of relief", the broader backdrop remains unfavourable for the rupee, a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank said.
"The high level of uncertainty on what comes next will keep the pressure on, necessitating RBI (Reserve Bank of India) support."
Indian equities, which were open on Thursday, slumped 3%. Foreign investors pulled out more than $800 million from equities, per preliminary data, extending the outflows that began after the war erupted.
