Rupee caught in cross-currents of US yield surge, oil-led risk aversion
The Indian rupee is likely to dip at Monday's open, with a jump in U.S. Treasury yields and the resulting risk-off mood souring market sentiment already hit by high oil prices.
The rupee is expected to open in the 96.08 to 96.12 range, per traders, after settling at 95.9650 on Friday, when it hit an all-time low of 96.1350 per U.S. dollar.
The Reserve Bank of India likely stepped in on Friday, helping the rupee recover and push back above the 96 level, traders said. The central bank has been intervening regularly to alleviate pressure from high oil prices.
U.S. yields have broken out, presenting a new pressure point for the rupee and other emerging market currencies, a currency trader at a bank said.
The rupee will continue its slide, with the RBI focussing on managing the pace of decline, he said.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose four basis points to 4.6250% on Monday, extending Friday’s 14-basis-point jump. Expectations of persistently high oil prices are stoking inflation concerns and fuelling a selloff in Treasuries, with yields in Europe, the UK and Japan rising in tandem.
Until last week, U.S. yields had been holding in a narrow range since the Iran conflict began, likely reflecting expectations of a resolution. That has now changed, with the 10-year yield on a tear.
Brent crude rose nearly 2% to $111.34 per barrel amid stalled diplomatic efforts to resolve the U.S.-Iran conflict. A nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates came under attack and U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to discuss military options on Iran.
The dollar index rose to 99.40, while the Indonesian rupiah slumped more than 1% to lead declines in Asian currencies. Regional equity indexes fell in line with U.S. equity futures.
Asian currencies are bearing the brunt of the dollar's strength and higher U.S. real yields, MUFG Bank said in a note.
