Rupee may open at all-time low, pressured by $100-plus crude; RBI response eyed
The Indian rupee may slip to a record low at open on Monday, as a sharp surge in global oil prices fuelled by the widening Middle East conflict deepened concerns over India's external balances, while traders were on alert for potential central bank intervention.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 92.30-92.35 range versus the U.S. dollar, down from 91.74 on Friday and possibly eclipsing the previous record low of 92.3025 hit last week.
Brent crude jumped more than 25% to around $117 a barrel, extending last week's nearly 28% rally triggered by the outbreak of the Iran war.
The roughly 50% surge in oil prices has been driven by the expanding U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, which has prompted some major Middle East producers to cut supplies and raised fears of prolonged disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran on Monday named Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father, Ali Khamenei, as supreme leader, signalling that hardliners remain firmly in charge in Tehran a week into its conflict with the United States and Israel and raising the likelihood of a prolonged war.
Higher crude prices pose a significant challenge for India, a major oil importer, as they raise the country's import costs, risk widening the current account deficit and amplify pressure on the rupee.
"Obviously, there will be a lot of pressure (on the rupee today). It will likely be a one-sided move, and it will be down to the RBI to step in and calm the market," a currency trader at a bank said.
The RBI had stepped into the market last week to temper the rupee's decline, and market participants expect the central bank to remain active if depreciation pressures intensify.
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U.S. equity futures dropped more than 2%, while Japanese and South Korean shares led losses across Asian markets with declines of roughly 6.5%.
