Quote on Year Ender by Ritu Kant Ojha, Real Estate Strategist, on Currency Arbitrage Driving Indian HNIs to Dubai
Below the Quote on Year Ender by Ritu Kant Ojha, Real Estate Strategist, on Currency Arbitrage Driving Indian HNIs to Dubai
“With the Rupee breaching psychological levels against the Dollar-pegged Dirham, the Indian High-Net-Worth Individual woke up to a new reality: holding cash in INR is a depreciating position. The 2025 trade was about currency arbitrage. The narrative that Indians buy Dubai real estate for holiday homes is an old story. In 2025, the motivation shifted from lifestyle to arithmetic.
I recently restructured the portfolio of a Mumbai family office heavily exposed to domestic equities. They were chasing 12 percent returns in India but ignoring the 4 to 6 percent currency erosion. We moved 15 percent of their liquidity into pre-leased, Grade-A commercial assets in Dubai. The math was simple. A tax-free 7 percent yield in a hard currency effectively outperforms a taxable Indian fixed instrument by nearly 400 basis points when adjusted for inflation and currency risk.
This is the blueprint for 2026. The blind capital from India, speculators buying generic off-plan units, will evaporate. The sophisticated investor is now bypassing small developers to acquire institutional-grade inventory in master-planned communities. They realise that in a volatile global economy, Dubai is the stabiliser.
The mandate I am giving clients for 2026 is specific. Do not just export capital, optimise it. If your international real estate is not acting as a currency hedge, it is a liability. The winners in 2026 will be those who secure dollar-denominated income streams that protect their global purchasing power, treating their Dubai apartment not as a second home, but as a USD bond with a front door.”
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