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Below the Quote on Trade by Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA Ltd

India’s merchandise trade deficit widened by over 50% YoY to $30.4 billion in June 2026 from $19.1 billion in June 2025, as elevated commodity prices pushed up the import bill by 31% in the month. While the uptick in imports in June 2026 was largely broad-based, select items such as oil, electronics, fertilisers and chemicals witnessed a sizeable YoY expansion in the month, albeit partly on account of a low base. While exports also rose by a healthy 15.5% YoY in June 2026, this sharply trailed the expansion seen in imports during the month.

While the situation in West Asia and its impact on crude oil prices remains a monitorable, ICRA expects the current account deficit to widen to at least 1.0% of GDP in FY2027.

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