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Below the Quote on Gold and Crude by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP-Commodity Research, Kotak Securities

Comex gold futures climbed yesterday to $3,363.80 per ounce, bouncing back from an intraday low of $3,278/oz. The recovery was driven by a softer U.S. dollar and heightened market caution ahead of key U.S. economic data releases and developments in U.S.-China trade relations. Hopes for a near-term resolution to the trade conflict remain slim, as the Chinese Foreign Ministry once again denied being involved in trade negotiations with Washington. Additional support for gold came from lower US Treasury yields and dovish commentary from the European Central Bank, with ECB officials signaling potential rate cuts in response to persistent downside risks to inflation. Meanwhile, data from the China Gold Association showed that China’s gold consumption declined by 5.96% year-on-year in Q1 2025, although domestic production rose 1.49% to 87.24 tonnes. Today, gold prices edged lower, slipping below $3,320/oz, as investor focus shifts to the upcoming US JOLTS job openings report and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, as it may shed light on the broader economic impact of President Donald Trump’s ongoing trade conflict.

WTI crude prices fell to $61.5 per barrel yesterday as investors remained wary amid persistent trade tensions between the US and China, the world’s two largest oil consumers. While President Trump expressed confidence that trade deals with US partners could be finalized within the next three to four weeks, hopes were dampened by the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s renewed denial of any tariff rollback discussions. Further uncertainty was fueled by comments from the US Treasury Secretary, who stated that it is up to Beijing to take the first step in de-escalating the trade dispute. These developments suggest that meaningful progress with China may remain slow and unpredictable, keeping market sentiment fragile. Despite these headwinds, crude prices managed to close above $62 per barrel, buoyed by a weaker US dollar. However, prices retreated slightly to $61.55 per barrel today as markets continue to track trade negotiations, the status of US-Iran nuclear talks, and key US economic indicators.