Quote on Gold and Crude 04th November 2025 by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities
Below the Quote on Gold and Crude 04th November 2025 by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securitie
Spot gold prices held steady on Monday, closing the session near $4,000/oz, following a second consecutive weekly decline as investors awaited fresh US data triggers to gauge the likelihood of another Fed rate cut this year. Traders are now pricing a 65% chance of a rate cut in December, down from a near certainty last week before the Fed meeting. Coupled with a stronger dollar and firmer Treasury yields, China’s decision to scrap a long-standing tax rebate for some retailers hurt demand outlook in one of the world’s largest precious-metals markets. Today, gold prices traded below $3,990/oz as comments from several Federal Reserve policymakers dampened expectations of another rate cut next month. Fed Governor Lisa Cook, along with Mary Daly and Austan Goolsbee, highlighted labor market concerns but refrained from committing to another cut in December. Market attention now shifts to upcoming ADP employment and ISM PMI data, while easing safe-haven demand and China’s withdrawal of gold tax incentives may weigh on sentiment.
WTI crude surged to $61.5/bbl yesterday as OPEC+ approved a modest hike of 137,000 barrels per day for next month and announced plans to pause output increases in the first quarter of 2026, citing typical seasonal demand weakness. However, sharp upside was capped by soft Chinese manufacturing data and a stronger dollar. Oil prices started last week on a positive note amid speculation that President Trump would impose new, tougher oil sanctions on Russia to pressure Putin into peace negotiations over the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This follows the US Treasury’s sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, aimed at curbing Moscow’s energy revenue and limiting its ability to fund the war. However, relief was temporary as prices saw renewed selling pressure amid concerns over a potential supply glut and fragile demand outlook. Today, oil prices trade below $61/bbl as traders assess oversupply risks, the possibility of US strikes on Nigeria and Venezuela, and the potential impact of upcoming Russia sanctions.
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Quote on Gold - Crude by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP-Commodity Research, Kotak Securities
