India`s Sugar Stock Set to Fall Below Estimates by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
India’s sugar stock is projected to decline to 46 lakh tonnes (lt) by the end of August 2025, significantly below the industry estimate of 52 lt by ISMA. The government has pegged August-end stock at 69 lt and allocated 23.5 lt for September sales, which may be fully utilized due to early festival demand. Experts warn that if domestic sales allocations remain high, closing stocks could tighten further, forcing reliance on the new season’s production. Despite short-term supply pressures, ISMA expects an 18% jump in sugar output in 2025-26, driven by improved sugarcane yields and recovery.
Key Highlights
* Sugar stock may fall to 46 lt by August-end.
* Government allocated 23.5 lt for September domestic sales.
* ISMA had earlier projected closing stock at 52 lt.
* Previous low stock was 39.41 lt in 2017-18 season.
* Sugar output for 2025-26 projected to rise 18% YoY.
India’s sugar stock is expected to decline sharply to around 46 lakh tonnes (lt) by the end of August, falling below industry expectations and raising concerns about festival season supply. The government estimated closing stock at 69 lt as of August 31 and allocated 23.5 lt for September domestic sales. With Dussehra and Diwali arriving earlier this year, this quota is likely to be fully consumed, tightening availability.
The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) had projected closing stock at 52 lt, but fresh estimates suggest lower availability. The last time India witnessed such low stocks was in the 2017-18 season, when it dipped to 39.41 lt. A senior industry official highlighted that after factoring in production from Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, stocks would settle near 46.44 lt.
In the previous year, the government had allocated 47.5 lt for October–November sales, supported by 27.9 lt of production from mills. This time, improved sugarcane yields and higher juice recovery are expected to boost output, cushioning the pressure. However, domestic consumption of 275.5 lt still exceeds the estimated net production of 261 lt in the 2024-25 season.
Looking ahead, ISMA’s first estimate for 2025-26 brings relief. The association expects gross output to rise 18% to 349.01 lt from 295.07 lt in 2024-25. This jump, backed by favorable growing conditions, will help meet festival demand when new supplies hit the market from November.
In conclusion, while India faces near-term sugar supply pressure, improved cane yields and higher output projections for 2025-26 suggest stocks will stabilize, supporting both domestic demand and festival season requirements.
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