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Indian equity markets are likely to make positive start on Tuesday, tracking gains in global markets. However, volatility may persist due to uncertainty surrounding a potential interim trade deal between the U.S. and India ahead of the August 1 deadline, as well as continued foreign fund outflows.

Some of the key factors to be watched:

Government does not foresee revenue shortfall, aims to achieve deficit target: Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary informed Parliament that the central government does not foresee any revenue shortfall at this stage and aims to achieve the targets fixed in the Budget Estimates for 2025-26.

Cabinet approves India-UK free trade agreement: The report said that the cabinet approved the free trade agreement between India and the UK, which will be signed in London on July 24, 2025.

India submits ratification document of TEPA with EFTA bloc: Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has said that India submitted the ratification document of the free trade agreement with the four-European nation bloc EFTA to Norway. The pact, officially dubbed as Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA), will be implemented from October 1, 2025.

Government forgone Rs 99000 crore in FY24 due to corporate tax incentives: Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary said that the government is estimated to have forgone around Rs 99,000 crore in revenue in the 2023-24 fiscal on account of tax incentives extended to corporates.

Over Rs 44 crore released under MGNREGS so far: Rural Development Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan informed the Lok Sabha that the Centre has released Rs 44,323 crore to states and union territories under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) so far.

On the global front: The U.S. markets ended mostly in green on Tuesday, ahead to the release of quarterly results from Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) and electric car maker Tesla (TSLA). Asian markets are trading mostly in green, as U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of a massive trade deal with Japan eased concerns about the tariff war.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks ended with minor cuts in a volatile trade on Tuesday, as a lack of clarity over the US-India trade deal ahead of the August 1 deadline and profit booking by FIIs hit the market sentiment. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 13.53 points or 0.02% to 82,186.81 and the CNX Nifty was down by 29.80 points or 0.12% to 25,060.90.    

Some of the important factors in trade:

India's core sector growth slows to 1.7% in June: The government data showed India's eight core infrastructure sectors' growth slowed down to 1.7 per cent in June 2025 from 5 per cent in the same month last year. The expansion during the month under review is slightly up as compared to May, when these sectors grew 1.2 per cent.

RBI proposes ban on display of third-party products on banks' digital channels: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has said that third-party products and services should not be displayed on banks' digital banking channels. The 'Reserve Bank of India (Digital Banking Channels Authorisation) Directions, 2025' said banks should put in place a risk-based transaction monitoring and surveillance mechanism.

EPFO logs all-time high net member addition of 20.06 lakh in May 2025: The Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) in its latest ‘Provisional payroll data’ report has showed that 20.06 lakh net members have been added in the month of May 2025, marking the highest recorded addition since payroll data tracking began in April 2018.

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