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Indian equity markets are likely to make a gap-down start on Tuesday amid weak global cues. Sentiments may remain under pressure as the escalating US-Iran conflict has pushed crude oil prices higher, raising concerns over inflation. Additionally, some cautiousness may come from foreign institutional investors, who were net sellers of shares worth Rs 3,062.27 crore on Monday. Traders are likely to adopt a wait-and-watch approach ahead of the release of the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for June. 

Some of the key factors to be watched: 

Retail inflation jumps to 4.38% in June amid higher food prices: Retail inflation, measured by the All India Consumer Price Index (CPI) with the base year 2024, jumped to 4.38% (Provisional) in June 2026 from 3.93% (Final) in May 2026, primarily due to higher food prices. 

India, EU to soon finish legal scrubbing of trade pact text: Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has said that India and the 27-nation European Union (EU) are expected to finish the legal scrubbing of the trade pact text in another week or two. 

India's exports rise 15.5% in June, trade deficit widens to $30.43 billion: India's exports rose by 15.5 per cent to $40.41 billion in June, even as the trade deficit widened to $30.43 billion. Imports in June went up by about 31 per cent to $70.84 billion.

India, US remain fully engaged on trade pact talks: Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has said that India and the US teams are fully engaged for a trade pact that is balanced, commercially meaningful, and delivers tangible benefits for businesses, farmers, workers, and consumers.

India's exports to West Asia region evened out in June: Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said India's exports to the West Asian region have evened out in June, as it has recorded a 7.29 per cent year-on-year growth to $5 billion. The shipments to the region had declined in March due to the US-Iran conflict, but improved in April and further in May. 

Global front: The US markets closed in red on Monday as renewed US-Iran tensions and a blockade on Iranian ports pushed oil prices higher, hurting risk appetite. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Tuesday, following the broadly negative cues from Wall Street overnight.

Back home, Indian equity markets eked out mild gains on Monday after recovering from sharp early losses on account of strong gains in information technology stocks. However, there was a cautious undertone in markets as renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities in the Middle East and Iran's claim to have closed the vital Strait of Hormuz sent crude oil prices soaring. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 47.01 points or 0.06% to 77,616.40 and the CNX Nifty was up by 4.10 points or 0.02% to 24,211.00.  

Some of the important factors in trade: 

Over 1.7 crore ITRs filed for AY 2026-27: The Income Tax Department said that over 1.7 crore I-T returns have been filed for 2025-26 financial year so far.

India, Canada complete 3rd round of CEPA talks: In a significant step toward strengthening bilateral relations, India and Canada have concluded the third round of negotiations for the proposed Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in Ottawa from July 6-10, 2026.

India needs to strengthen certification, standards, logistics, buyer networks to fully leverage India-UK FTA: The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has said that the India's free trade agreement (FTA) with the UK offers significant market access, but translating those opportunities into higher exports will require improvements in standards, certification, logistics and stronger buyer connections.

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