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Indian equity markets are likely to make a gap-down opening on Tuesday, amid a cautious and volatile undertone driven by geopolitical uncertainty and higher crude oil prices. Additionally, some cautiousness may come from foreign institutional investors, who were net sellers of shares worth Rs 8,437.56 crore on Monday. Moreover, investors are likely to remain on the sidelines ahead of India's retail inflation data, scheduled to be released later in the day.

Some of the key factors to be watched:

Need to utilise, leverage FTAs: Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal has said that the Indian industry needs to leverage and utilise the free trade agreements (FTAs) that India is finalising, as they provide huge opportunities for both trade and investments. 

Unemployment rate in cities dips marginally to 6.6% in Jan-Mar: A government survey released showed unemployment rate in cities declined marginally to 6.6 per cent in March quarter from 6.7 per cent in October-December 2025. 

US team to visit India for trade talks: The report said India expects the US team to visit the country for the next round of trade talks, though no dates have been finalised yet. The Indian side visited Washington, DC, in April for an in-person round of meetings with their US counterparts to finalise the details of the interim agreement and take forward the negotiations under the broader bilateral trade agreement (BTA). 

States' average per capita income could hit upper threshold by 2047, if growth sustains: Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta has said that the average per capita income of states could reach high-income thresholds by 2046-47, if the country's growth trajectories of the past two decades are sustained.

Identifying 100 products to boost domestic manufacturing: Secretary in the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), Amardeep Singh Bhatia, has said that the government is working with industry to identify about 100 products -- including those from the auto sector -- that are either not produced or manufactured inadequately in India, as part of efforts to boost domestic production.

Global front: US markets closed higher on Monday as AI-driven gains in semiconductor stocks offset concerns over rising crude prices and stalled U.S.-Iran talks. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Tuesday as crude oil prices gained after US President Donald Trump cast doubts regarding the Iran ceasefire.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks fell for the third day running on Monday, as rising crude oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions weighed heavily on investor sentiment after the US and Iran failed to reach a peace agreement to end the West Asia conflict. Rupee weakness, coupled with concerns over sustained foreign capital outflows, further dampened market sentiment. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 1312.91 points or 1.70% to 76,015.28 and the CNX Nifty was down by 360.30 points or 1.49% to 23,815.85. 

Some of the important factors in trade:

India’s economic growth to slow to 6.7% in FY27 amid oil price shock from Iran war: BMI, a Fitch Group firm, has forecasted that India’s economic growth to slow to 6.7% in the current fiscal (FY27), from 7.7% growth in FY26 on account of waning momentum and oil price shock from Iran war, though tax reforms offer partial offset. 

India, Canada to hold next round of negotiations for proposed FTA in July in Ottawa: The Commerce Ministry has said that India and Canada will hold the next round of negotiations for the proposed free trade agreement (FTA) in July in Ottawa, Canada. The second round of negotiations for the proposed Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) was held from May 4 to May 8 in New Delhi. 

Private Sector Capex rises 67% to Rs 7.7 lakh crore in September 2025: Pointing a revival in India’s investment cycle, the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has said that private sector capital expenditure in India has increased by 67% to Rs 7.7 lakh crore in September 2025 from Rs 4.6 lakh crore a year ago.

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