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Technical Outlook 

Day that was… Indian equities benchmark started the week on a negative note tracking negative global cues. Nifty settle at 25,585 down 0.40% Market breadth was in favour of decline with an A/D ratio of 1:3 with Nifty Smallcap has relatively underperformed the benchmark down 1%. Barring FMCG and Auto, all other indices closed in red wherein Realty and Oil & Gas emerging as the top laggards.

Technical Outlook:

• The index opened the week with a gap-down backed by weak global cues. As a result, the daily price action formed a bearish candle with a lower shadow, indicating supportive efforts emerged from previous week’s low (25,470).

• Index has closed below the 100-day EMA (25,625) its first such close in nearly 14 weeks, indicating pause in upward momentum. Following a ~900-point decline, the index is approaching oversold territory. However, a close above the previous session’s high is essential to arrest the decline and trigger a meaningful pullback. Failing this, the index is likely to consolidate within a broad 25,100–25,900 range, marked by stock-specific action.

• Therefore, we advise one should refrain from aggressive short-selling at current levels and instead, should adopt a selective accumulation approach, focusing on quality stocks delivering strong Q3 earnings as key support is placed at 25,100, being 200-day EMA and 61.8% retracement of the prior up-move (24,344–26,325)

On a market breadth perspective:

• The Nifty 500 has surged nearly 24% from its April 2025 lows and currently trades just 4% below its all-time high set in September 2024. While this may initially raise concerns about the market losing momentum, however a deeper look at market breadth tells a more encouraging story.

• Historically, market breadth bottoms when the percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day SMA falls below 15%, while rallies typically peak only when this figure approaches 90%.

• Currently, this metric stands near 36%, well below exhaustion levels and still beneath equilibrium. This suggests a large universe of stocks remains under-participated, leaving ample room for further upside and increasing the probability of the index eventually surpassing its previous highs and entering the next leg of the uptrend.

Key Monitorable:

a) Q3-FY26 earnings

b) US-India Trade Deal

c) US GDP data

d) BOJ policy rate

e) Brent Crude Oil has faced resistance near $67, being 38.2% retracement of its previous decline. Further decline in Brent crude oil bodes well for domestic market.

Intraday Rational:

• Trend - Consolidation in 25470-25900 range

• Levels - Sell near Gap resistance near 25765

Nifty Bank :59891

Technical Outlook

Day that was:

Bank Nifty started the week on a marginally negative note, at 59891 down 0.3%. PSU Bank has mirrored the benchmark and declined 0.2%

Technical Outlook:

• Index opened the week on a subdued note, however supportive efforts emerged near previous session low. As a result, the daily price action formed an Inside bar, indicating breather post sharp rally.

• Key point to highlight is that Bank Nifty comparatively outperformed the benchmark while holding firmly above 20- day EMA, indicating current uptrend is intact. Going ahead, we believe follow through action above previous week high (60,235) will challenge higher band of consolidation at 60500 and head towards 61500 in coming weeks, being measuring implication of range breakout(60400-58864)

• Structurally, since October2025, Index has consistently arrested intermediate corrections in the vicinity of 50-day EMA. Mirroring this historical behavior, the index has once again respected this key support and staged a strong rebound, indicating the probability of a similar constructive price resolution ahead.

• Nifty PSU Bank Index witnessed profit booking after 4 days up move indicating breather. Post breakout from recent consolidation range we expect Index to head towards 9200 (measuring implication of range breakout) in coming weeks ,considering good results from PSU Banks

Intraday Rational:

• Trend- Higher high-low formation within rising channel • Levels: Buy near 50% retracement of its preceding up-move (59,098-60,280)

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