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Indian equity markets are likely to a make cautious start on Friday, tracking mixed global market cues. Investors are likely to take cautious approach ahead of the expected US-India trade agreement developments. Moreover, there may be some volatility due to potential foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows.

Some of the key factors to be watched:

India's concerns shared with US Senator who proposed 500% tariff on Russian oil buyers: External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar suggested that India has shared its concerns with US Senator Lindsey Graham over his bill proposing a 500 per cent tariff on nations buying oil from Russia.

CII expects GDP to grow 6.4%-6.7% in FY26: The newly appointed Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) President Rajiv Memani said that India's economy is expected to grow 6.4-6.7 per cent during the current financial year driven by strong domestic demand, even as geopolitical uncertainty poses downside risks.

CII President urges a balanced India-US FTA, suggesting tricky issues be dealt with later on: CII President Rajiv Memani has underlined the need for a balanced and reasonable free trade agreement (FTA) between India and the US in the initial phase, saying the tricky areas having political ramifications could be tackled at a later date.

India, Ghana elevate ties to comprehensive partnership: India and Ghana have elevated their ties to the level of comprehensive partnership, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Ghanaian President John Dramani Mahama resolving to expand the bilateral ties in a range of areas, including defence, food security and pharmaceuticals.

China mineral curbs a wake-up call for India: The think tank GTRI said that China's export curbs on critical minerals crucial for India's electronics sectors are no longer mere warnings but a wake-up call for New Delhi, underscoring the need for urgent measures like reverse-engineering of low- to mid-tech imports to cut overreliance on Beijing.

On the global front: The U.S. markets ended in green on Thursday following the release of a closely watched Labor Department report showing employment in the U.S. increased by more than expected in the month of June. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Friday, amid Trump's tariff threats. 

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks cut all of their intra-day gains to close lower for the second consecutive day on Thursday due to last-hour selling in Metal, Realty and Telecom shares. Investors remained watchful of developments surrounding the potential U.S.-India trade agreement, with the 90-day pause nearing its end. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 170.22 points or 0.20% to 83,239.47 and the CNX Nifty was down by 48.10 points or 0.19% to 25,405.30.

Some of the important factors in trade: 

India’s services sector hits 10-month high of 60.4 in June: India’s services sector gathered more pace in June to touch a ten-month high, as output and new order intakes rose at the fastest rates since August 2024. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index grew to 60.4 in June from 58.8 in May. 

RBI directs banks, other lenders not to levy pre-payment charges on business loans to individuals, MSEs: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has directed banks and other lenders not to levy any pre-payment charges on all floating-rate loans and advances, including for business purposes, availed by individuals and micro and small enterprises (MSEs). 

Tyre stocks in focus: Tyre stocks were in focus as Automotive Tyre Manufacturers Association (ATMA) has said that tyre exports from India grew 9 per cent year-on-year to Rs 25,051 crore in FY25 as compared to Rs 23,073 crore in the previous fiscal despite headwinds, including trade policy uncertainties and global supply chain disruptions.

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