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Indian equity benchmarks are likely to make a flat-to-positive start taking cues from optimistic macro-economic data. Moreover, investors likely to take shy of relief after better-than-expected US inflation data raised optimism that Federal reserve may have room to adjust its monetary policy. However, market participants will remain cautious about the looming global trade war and its possible impact on global economy. 

Some of the key factors to be watched:

India’s retail inflation eases to seven-month low of 3.61% in February: According to government data, India’s retail inflation eased to a seven-month low of 3.61% in February, down from 4.26% in January.

India's industrial production picks up in January, grows 5%: According to Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation India's industrial output, measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by 5.0 per cent in January, from 3.5 per cent in December 2024.

India, Mauritius agree to facilitate trade settlements in local currencies: Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Mauritius counterpart Navinchandra Ramgoolam have agreed to facilitate trade settlements in local currencies, viz Indian Rupee and Mauritian Rupee.

India needs to scale up non-fossil fuel capacity: According to a report of Council on Energy, Environment and Water, India needs to scale up its non-fossil fuel capacity to 600 GW by 2030 to meet its growing electricity demand reliably and affordably

Sugar stocks will be in focus: Sugar industry body ISMA has revised net production estimates of the sweetener downwards to 264 lakh tonnes in the current marketing year ending September.

On the global front: The US markets ended mostly higher on Wednesday amidst positive economic cues, however, fears of a possible recession in US due to tariff tensions between trade partners worries the investors. Asian markets are trading mixed tacking cues from Wall Street.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks erased most of their losses but ended marginally lower on Wednesday due to heavy selling pressure in IT, TECK and Telecom stocks amid growing concerns over a possible global economic slowdown. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 72.56 points or 0.10% to 74,029.76, and the CNX Nifty was down by 27.40 points or 0.12% to 22,470.50.

Some of the important factors in trade:

US tariffs on steel, aluminum imports took effect: Tariff uncertainties kept investors on edge as Trump's increased tariffs on all U.S. steel and aluminum imports took effect and the European Union said it will impose counter tariffs on 26 billion euros ($28 billion) worth of U.S. goods from next month. 

Crude oil prices climbed: Crude oil prices inched higher after starting the week with sharp losses, amid reports of rebounding Asian imports and a weaker dollar that should stimulate stronger demand.

India's GDP to exceed 6.5% in FY26: Moody's Ratings stated that India's economic growth will exceed 6.5 per cent in the next fiscal, up from 6.3 per cent this year, on higher government capex and consumption boost from tax cuts and interest rate reduction.

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