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Nifty : 24536

Technical Outlook

Day that was ..

The sharp decline in crude oil prices boosted the market sentiment. Nifty zoomed 576 points or 2.4% to settle the Thursday’s session at 24536. Market breadth remained positive with A/D ratio of 1.5:1. Sectorally, all major indices ended in green led by financials, auto, realty.

Technical Outlook :

• The index endured it northbound journey post gap up opening and settled the session above 24500 mark. The daily price movement formed a sizable bullish candle, suggesting a acceleration of upward momentum.

• The formation of higher peak and trough backed by traction in index heavy weight, strong FII inflows and significant improvement in the market breadth augurs well for extension of ongoing up move towards August high of ~24800 mark.

• Index has rallied 2200 points in just nine sessions. This swift up move has hauled short term stochastic oscillator in overbought conditions. Thereby, possibility of temporary breather at higher levels can not be ruled out which would help index to cool off overbought conditions and pave the way for next leg of up move

• The Indian market had lagged its global counterparts due to AIdriven momentum. However, the recent global sell-off in AI-driven stocks, driven by concerns about Fed rate hikes and the financing of AI investments, could provide a supportive tailwind for the growth-oriented Indian market, potentially attracting FII’s in the near future.

• Structurally, index has retraced >80% of previous 12 weeks decline in just two weeks. This faster pace of retracement signifies structural turnaround. Additionally, a decline in crude oil prices and a cooling off in US 10-Year Bond Yields would further support the rally. Therefore, any dips moving forward should be seen as opportunities to accumulate quality stocks backed by robust earnings.

• On the market breadth front, we have observed significant improvement in the market breadth of Nifty 50 universe as reading of % of stocks above 200 days SMA has improved from 10 days back reading of 16% to 50%. This significant improvement bodes well for extension of ongoing rally • The formation of higher high-low signifies strong price structure that makes us revise support base upward at 23,700 being placement of 38.2% retracement of current up move (22372- 24580)

Intraday Rational :

• Trend – Formation of higher high low signifies positive bias

• Levels – Buy around 61.8% retracement of 2 days range

Nifty Bank : 57774

Technical Outlook

Day that was :

Bank Nifty ended the session on a strong note, up 3.3% at 57774 levels. Meanwhile, the Nifty PSU Bank relatively outperformed by gaining 3% for the day.

Technical Outlook :

• The index started the day with gap-up opening and traded northwards and closed higher. The daily price action formed is bull candle with higher high higher low intact indicating positive bias.

• Key point to highlight is that Index is sustaining above last week high (55068) and also 200-day EMA signaling positive momentum. Stochastic Oscillator close to overbought condition (placed at 98). Consequently, a couple of days breather at higher levels cannot be entirely ruled out.

• Eventually, we expect index to resolve higher and extend the move towards 58600 being July 2026.

• The formation of higher high-low signifies positive momentum that makes us revise support bae upward at 56300 being 200 days EMA coincided with 38% of current up move (53626-57847)

• Nifty PSU Bank Index formed bull candle indicating positive bias . Going ahead we expect Index to head towards 8800 in coming weeks

Intraday Rational :

• Trend - Robust recovery from key support of 53800 confirms strong support zone

• Levels : Buy around 61.8% retracement of 2 days range.

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