Nifty started the session on a flat note and witnessed selling pressure during the first half - ICICI Direct
Nifty : 25694
Technical Outlook
Day that was…
Buoyancy in global market boosted market sentiment that helped index to extend gains over third session in a row. Nifty settled weekly expiry session at 25,694 up 0.47%. In tandem with the benchmark, Nifty Midcap & Small cap gained 0.5%, each. Sectorally, IT and Auto outperformed, whereas BFSI remained a laggard.
Technical Outlook:
* Nifty started the session on a flat note and witnessed selling pressure during the first half. However, buying demand emerged near the previous session’s low, leading to a sharp recovery in the latter half. The daily price action formed a bullish candle with a long lower shadow, indicating buying demand that emerged from elevated support base.
* Nifty is likely to open gap up today tracking Bihar election exit poll coupled with development on India-US tariff negotiations. The index continued to inch upward over third consecutive session while sustaining well above its 14-month falling trendline breakout area, which aligns with the 50-day EMA, signaling revival in upward momentum. Going ahead, a decisive move above the immediate hurdle of 25,800 would lead to acceleration of upward momentum that would driver Nifty towards the life-high zone of 26,300 by December 2025. In the process, bouts of volatility owing to the Bihar election outcome cannot be ruled out. However, any dip from hereon should not be construed as negative instead capitalized it as buying opportunity in quality stock as strong support is placed at 25100.
Following observations makes us reiterate our positive stance:
* Past three weeks 800 points decline is more of a healthy retracement of October month's 1500 points rally. The slower pace of retracement reinforces the structural uptrend.
* While sailing through global volatility, Midcap index ha relatively outperformed the benchmark move and managed to settle the day on a positive note, highlighting relative outperformance. Hence focus should be stocks with strong earnings
* In contrast with Q1FY26 earnings, the lack of disappointment on earning front has provided cushion to the market that would pave the way for next leg of up move
* Since 2000, November has given positive returns with 66% strike rate wherein average returns have been >2%
* Sectorally, BFSI, Auto, Metal are expected to endure their northbound journey
Key Monitorable for the next week:
* Bihar Election outcome
* Development on India-US tariff negotiations
* U.S. Dollar Index: Once again Dollar index has retreated from upper band of four months consolidation placed at 100. Follow through weakness would be positive for emerging markets
Intraday Rational:
* Trend- Higher-high and higher low structure
* Levels: Buy on declines near previous session’s high
Nifty Bank : 58138
Technical Outlook
Day that was:
* Bank Nifty continued with its gain for the third consecutive session amid heightened volatility to settle the day at 58,138 up 0.35%. The Nifty Private Bank index has mirrored the benchmark and closed positive to settle at 28,046 up 0.35%
Technical Outlook:
* Bank Nifty opened the session on a firm note and witnessed decline during first half. However, strong buying demand emerged near the 50% retracement (57,600) of the previous two-session up move, leading to a sharp recovery in the latter half. The daily price action formed a bullish candle with a long lower shadow, indicating supportive efforts emerged from key support levels.
* Today index is likely to open gap up today tracking Bihar election exit poll coupled with development on India-US tariff negotiations. Over the past 12 session, the index has been consolidating within a broader 1500-point range (58,600-57,100), while sustaining above the 38.2% retracement level of its preceding 4300-point upswing, indicating a healthy consolidation phase. Going forward, a decisive close above the October high of 58,600 would signal a range breakout and pave the way for the next leg of the up move towards the revised target of 60,000, which corresponds to the measured move projection derived from the current consolidation range.
* Momentum indicators such as the RSI continue to sustain above the 60 level on both weekly and monthly timeframes, maintaining a positive mediumterm bias. Hence, focus should be on accumulating quality stocks on dips backed by strong earnings as immediate support is placed near 56,900, corresponding to the 38.2% retracement of the ongoing advance (54,226– 58,577).
* Historically, there have been 17 instances over the past two decades where Bank Nifty, following a decisive breakout above its previous two-month high, delivered double-digit returns within the subsequent four months. In the current setup, the index has once again confirmed a breakout above its prior two-month high and surpassed the previous all-time peak, reaffirming the prevailing bullish structure. This setup indicates a high-probability continuation pattern for sustained upside momentum in the coming months.
* The PSU Bank Index continues to outperform, maintaining a higher-high, higher-low formation for the tenth-straight week on the back of strong Q2 earnings. In near term, index is witnessing series of healthy consolidation after sharp up move. However, any dip from hereon should not be construed as negative instead capitalized it as buying opportunity in quality stock as strong support is placed near 7,800, aligning with the 38.2% retracement of the latest rally (6,730–8,391).
* Intraday Rational:
* Trend- Higher-high and higher-low structure
*Levels Buy on declines near previous session’s high
Please refer disclaimer at https://secure.icicidirect.com/Content/StaticData/Disclaimer.html
SEBI Registration number INZ000183631
