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Nifty

Nifty spent the majority of last week with its daily RSI struggling to reclaim the crucial 50 mark, highlighting subdued momentum and lack of strong buying conviction. Although the index nearly filled the 3rd February gap near 25100, it failed to sustain above key moving averages. The decisive close below the 200 DEMA on Friday tilted the near-term bias to mildly bearish. This technical setup increases the likelihood of a retest of the 25040 -24900 demand zone, an area where meaningful buying interest had previously emerged and helped stabilize price escalation. On the upside, 25630 which coincides with the 50 DEMA remains the immediate hurdle. A strong and sustained close above this level is essential for bulls to regain short-term control and negate the prevailing weakness. From a derivatives perspective, options data indicates a compressed weekly range between 25000 and 25500. Significant put writing at 25000 underscores solid support, while call build-up near 25500 is capping advances. The 25400 strike stands out as a key pivot; any unusual unwinding at this level could trigger a breakout from the current range. Overall, the outlook remains range-bound to mildly negative unless 25630 is convincingly reclaimed.

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