IGI Logo

Nifty :23306

The Indian equity benchmarks extended their gains for the second consecutive session, supported by cooling energy prices and easing geopolitical concerns. Nifty settled at 23,306, up 1.70%. Market breadth remained firmly positive with an A/D ratio of 2.8:1. Broader markets continued to outperform, as Mid and Smallcap indices led the recovery with gains of ~2.5% each. Sectorally, the rally was broad-based across indices, led by Consumer Durables, Realty, and BFSI.

Technical Outlook:

* The index opened with a gap-up at 23,064 and extended its upward momentum with an attempt to fill the “downside gap” created on 19th March 2026 (23,400-23,600). However, mild profit booking in the final hour capped further upside. The daily price action resulted into a long bull candle with a small upper shadow, indicating strong buying interest with some supply emerging near higher levels.

* Index is likely to open gap-down on back of negative global cues and rise in crude oil prices. A key highlight is that the index hitting an intraday high of 23,465, however narrowly missed a decisive close above the 10-day EMA by ~25 points. Going ahead, a decisive close and sustained hold above the 10-day EMA (23,332) remains the immediate prerequisite for extending the pullback towards 23,850.

* From a structural perspective, confirmation of a trend reversal would require a weekly close above 23,850, accompanied by a higher highhigher low formation, that would reinforce bullish momentum and pave the way for the next leg of the up move.

* Meanwhile, on the weekly timeframe, the stochastic oscillator has witnessed a bullish crossover from the oversold territory and has risen to 11 from earlier levels of 4 over the past two session, indicating positive momentum from deeply oversold conditions, with scope for a gradual pullback ahead. However, intermittent bouts of volatility cannot be ruled out, with key support placed near the 22500 being Monday’s panic low.

* The percentage of Nifty 500 stocks trading above their 50 and 200 DMAs has improved to 22% and 25% from earlier readings of 16% and 20% respectively, indicating broad based participation beyond select heavyweights.

* Historical evidence suggests that corrections during geopolitical phases typically mature around ~11% over ~4 weeks and are often followed by >25% returns over the subsequent 3-6 months. In the current instance, Nifty has already corrected ~11% over three weeks, indicating proximity to a potential time-price maturity zone near 22,500.

Key Monitorable:

* De-escalation of geopolitical tension

• Cool off in Crude oil prices.

Intraday Rational:

*Trend - Higher high-low formation in daily timeframe with bullish crossover in stochastic oscillator, indicating positive bias.

*Levels - Buy around 61.8% retracement of last 2 days upmove(22617- 23460).

Nifty Bank :53708

The index saw a significant rally gaining over 2% to settle at 53,708 as global tensions eased and fall in crude oil prices. The Nifty PSU Bank Index relatively outperformed gaining 2.7%.

Technical Outlook:

* The Index opened with a gap-up and inched higher in the first half, however profit booking emerged around the 10-day EMA (54,060) in the latter half of the session. As a result, daily price action resulted in to bull candle with higher high-low formation in daily time frame, indicating strong buying interest with some supply emerging near short-term moving average.

* Index is likely to open gap-down on back of negative global cues and rise in Brent oil prices. Going ahead, a decisive close above 10-day EMA (54060) which has been acted as stiff resistance since the onset of geopolitical tension would keep the possibility of extended pullback options open towards 55,500 being last week’s high and 38.2% retracement of fall from its peak (61678-51323) created on 20th Feb 2026.

* Structurally Since March 2022, Index has been trading within its upward rising channel. In current scenario also Index has witnessed a supportive efforts from its lower band of rising channel, signaling buying demand emerging around its key long-term channel support.

* Further on the weekly timeframe, the stochastic oscillator has witnessed a bullish crossover from the oversold territory and has risen to 10 from earlier levels of 6 over the past two session, indicating positive momentum from deeply oversold conditions, with scope for a gradual pullback ahead. However, intermittent bouts of volatility cannot be ruled out, with key support placed near the 51300 being Monday’s panic low.

* On the broader space, the Nifty PSU Bank closed up 2.7% to settle at 8581. Index is currently hovering around 200-day EMA that coincides with its former breakout zone of 8100 levels now turning as a support as per change of polarity concept, indicating healthy consolidation near key support.

Intraday Rational:

* Trend- Higher high-low formation in daily timeframe with bullish crossover in stochastic oscillator, indicating positive bias

* Levels- Buy around 61.8% retracement of last 2 days upmove (51875- 54167)

Please refer disclaimer at https://secure.icicidirect.com/Content/StaticData/Disclaimer.html

SEBI Registration number INZ000183631