Nifty falls but holds 20 DEMA support amid pressure - Tradebulls Securities Pvt Ltd
Nifty
Nifty continued its decline but managed to hold near its 20 DEMA support, indicating some buying interest at lower levels, even as a breakdown below the recent Inside Bar pattern low with a minor gap and a negative crossover of the 5 & 50 DEMA reflect short-term weakness. The zone around 24310 now acts as immediate resistance, and only a sustained close above this level can signal a potential trend reversal, while on the downside, a consecutive close below 23800 may trigger further unwinding and likely accelerating weakness towards 23500–23150. Momentum indicators continue to suggest consolidation, as ADX remains below 25 and RSI has slipped below the 50 mark, while derivative data indicates that sustaining above the 24200–24300 Call OI cluster is crucial for any bullish revival, with PE support likely shifting lower towards 23500. Despite near-term volatility, the broader structure remains constructive as long as Nifty holds above 22950; however, upside may remain capped due to elevated crude prices, a firm USD/INR, persistent FII outflows, and geopolitical uncertainties. As long as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, and Washington and Tehran continue to send conflicting signals, markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments emerging from the Middle East, especially given the strait’s critical role in global oil flows and its direct impact on energy prices and risk sentiment.
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