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Indian equity markets are likely to make a positive start on Friday, buoyed by strong global cues and optimism surrounding major Q4 earnings reports from companies such as Reliance Industries and Maruti Suzuki. Additionally, sustained buying by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) in recent sessions is likely to further bolster markets sentiment. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan could weigh on investors sentiment.

Some of the key factors to be watched:

India likely to be first to sign trade deal: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said that he expects India to strike the first bilateral trade deal to avoid President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs.

India, South Africa discuss possibility of settlement of trade in local currency: The commerce ministry said India and South Africa have discussed possibility of settlement of trade in local currency and unified payment linkage system with a view to further strengthen economic ties. 

India, Pakistan trade miniscule: Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) stated that bilateral trade between India and Pakistan was already minimal. Following a terror attack in Pahalgam, India faced trade suspension from Pakistan. This includes routes through third countries.

Government working to reduce regulatory issues in logistics sector: Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) joint secretary Pankaj Kumar said the government is actively working to reduce regulatory hurdles in the logistics sector to improve ease of doing business and attract investments. 

Indian aviation industry stocks will be in focus: ICRA said that Indian aviation industry's outlook for 2025-26 remains stable, driven by expectations of moderate growth in domestic air passenger traffic and a relatively stable cost environment.

On the global front: The US markets ended in green on Thursday driven by optimism that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates sooner than anticipated. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Friday supported by lingering hopes for progress in trade negotiations between the U.S. and other countries.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks ended in red on Thursday, halting a seven-session winning streak, as investors booked profits on monthly F&O expiry day. The markets saw broad-based selling, with pressure intensifying in the second half of the session. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 315.06 points or 0.39% to 79,801.43, and the CNX Nifty was down by 82.25 points or 0.34% to 24,246.70.              

Some of the important factors in trade:

World Bank lowers India's growth forecast for FY26: The World Bank in its latest South Asia Development Update has lowered India’s economic growth forecast for 2025-26 by 40 basis points to 6.3 per cent, over global economic weakness and policy uncertainty. 

Weak earnings from major FMCG companies: FMCG major Hindustan Unilever (HUL) dropped 4 per cent after the firm reported a decline of 3.35 per cent in consolidated net profit at Rs 2,475 crore for the fourth quarter ended March 31, 2025 on lower margins. Besides, Nestle India reported a decline of 6.5 per cent in consolidated net profit at Rs 873.46 crore for the March quarter of 2024-25.

US tariffs could shave up to 0.5% off India's GDP: Finance Secretary Ajay Seth reportedly said the direct hit from tariffs introduced by Donald Trump’s administration on India could shave off between 0.2% and 0.5% from GDP growth. 

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