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Nifty

Last week’s recurring lower-gap formations continue to reflect a fragile market structure amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. The Nifty extended its recovery to fill the gap zone near 23840, which also aligns with the 10-DEMA resistance area. A breakdown below the 23500 mark could drag the index back towards 23100, where the Piercing Line pattern support is placed, suggesting that the market may remain rangebound within a broader downtrend. Options data indicates firm boundaries between 23500 and 24000, with 23800 acting as a key pivot zone. Any slippage below 23500 may trigger further downside towards 23300 in the near term, followed by 23,000 in subsequent sessions. On the technical front, indicators remain mixed—ADX continues to trend higher, indicating underlying trend strength, while RSI is rebounding from oversold levels but lacks strong momentum, implying that the current rise is largely driven by short covering. For the week ahead, immediate resistance is placed near 23830, while crucial support lies around 22920. Given the weak broader structure, traders are advised to avoid aggressive long positions, adopt a range-bound trading approach, maintain hedges, and keep position sizing light amid elevated volatility driven by global cues.

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