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Gold

Gold prices settled lower by 0.58% at 158,679 as a stronger US dollar and rising crude oil prices increased inflation concerns and reinforced expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Market sentiment weakened after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that the central bank should remove its easing bias from policy guidance and remain prepared for a possible rate hike if inflation continues to stay above the Fed’s 2% target. Minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting also indicated that most policymakers still consider another rate increase possible later this year if inflationary pressures persist. Geopolitical developments surrounding US-Iran negotiations continued to influence safe-haven sentiment. Although Tehran indicated that the latest US proposal had narrowed differences between the two sides, reports that Iran’s Supreme Leader ordered the country’s enriched uranium stockpile to remain within national borders complicated the peace process and kept uncertainty elevated. Higher crude oil prices linked to Middle East tensions also strengthened inflation expectations globally. Fundamentally, central bank demand for gold remained a strong supportive factor. Goldman Sachs revised its estimate of official gold purchases sharply higher and now expects central banks to buy nearly 60 tonnes per month through 2026 amid ongoing reserve diversification. Meanwhile, the World Gold Council reported that India’s investment demand for gold surged 52% year-on-year during the March quarter, overtaking jewellery consumption for the first time on record. Global gold demand also rose 2% in the first quarter as stronger investment and central bank buying offset weaker jewellery demand. Physical demand in India remained subdued due to high import duties and price volatility, although discounts narrowed from record levels seen previously. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation as open interest declined 3.47% to 5,598 lots while prices fell by 927 rupees. Gold is holding support at 158,020, with further downside likely towards 157,365, while resistance is seen at 159,415 and 160,155 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 157365-160155.

*  Gold pulled lower by a firmer dollar and rising oil prices that kept inflation concerns in focus.

*  Fed’s Waller said Fed should axe the "easing bias" from its policy statement and effectively open the door to a possible rate hike.

*  Gold kept trading at a steep discount in India, as price volatility dampened demand, while premiums eased in China.

Silver

Silver prices settled lower by 1.1% at 271,846 as investors remained cautious amid ongoing diplomatic discussions between the United States and Iran regarding a possible resolution to the Middle East conflict. Market sentiment was further pressured by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and a stronger US dollar, which reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets. Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin stated that current monetary policy remains appropriately positioned to respond to economic shocks, while emphasizing concerns over inflation and economic growth risks. According to CME FedWatch data, traders are currently pricing in a 58% probability of at least one 25 basis-point US interest rate hike by December. Economic sentiment indicators from the United States also reflected growing uncertainty. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped sharply to a record low of 44.8 in May, marking the third consecutive monthly decline as elevated gasoline prices linked to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continued to weigh on consumer confidence and inflation expectations. Despite weaker prices, physical silver demand from China remained exceptionally strong. China imported nearly 836 metric tonnes of silver during March, almost triple the historical seasonal average, driven by strong retail investment demand and aggressive stockpiling by photovoltaic manufacturers ahead of export tax changes. Strong domestic premiums in China also encouraged global shipments into the country through arbitrage opportunities. Meanwhile, India imposed restrictions on silver imports across most forms to curb excessive inflows and ease pressure on the rupee. The restrictions are expected to tighten domestic supplies and potentially support local premiums despite lower global demand. India’s silver imports had surged sharply over the past year, supported mainly by investment demand and record ETF inflows. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure as open interest increased 3.03% to 9,476 lots while prices declined by 3,037 rupees. Silver is holding support at 269,155, with further downside possible towards 266,465, while resistance is seen at 274,880 and 277,915 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 266465-277915.

* Silver dropped as investors cautiously monitor ongoing diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran to reach a deal.

* Fed’s Barkin said that current policy is “in a good place to respond to ongoing shocks

* CME FedWatch predicts 58% chance of at least one U.S. rate hike this year

Crude oil

Crude oil prices settled lower by 1.86% at 9,168 as renewed optimism surrounding diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran eased immediate supply disruption concerns. Market sentiment improved after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that there had been slight progress in mediated talks with Iran, while Tehran continued reviewing the latest US proposal delivered through Pakistan. Despite the improving diplomatic tone, uncertainty remains elevated regarding the final outcome of negotiations and the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, keeping market volatility high. Additional pressure came from expectations that major OPEC+ producers could agree to a modest increase in July output during their upcoming June 7 meeting, although several member countries continue facing operational disruptions linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict. China’s refined fuel exports are also expected to increase slightly in June as the country balances export demand with domestic consumption needs. Fundamentally, US inventory data remained supportive despite the market decline. According to the Energy Information Administration, US crude oil inventories declined sharply by 7.9 million barrels last week, significantly exceeding expectations for a 2.9 million-barrel draw. Crude inventories at the Cushing delivery hub also declined by 1.6 million barrels, while gasoline stocks fell by 1.5 million barrels. However, distillate inventories unexpectedly increased, limiting bullish momentum. OPEC also lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.17 million barrels per day from 1.38 million previously due to the economic impact of the Iran conflict, although the group expects demand growth to improve during 2027. Barclays maintained its 2026 Brent crude forecast at $100 per barrel, highlighting continued concerns over tight global inventory levels and supply deficits. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure as open interest increased 5.24% to 14,972 lots while prices declined by 174 rupees. Crude oil is holding support at 8,963, with further downside possible towards 8,758, while resistance is seen at 9,464 and 9,760 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8758-9760.

* Crude oil dropped as renewed hopes emerged that the US and Iran could reach a diplomatic agreement.

* US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there had been “slight progress” in mediated talks with Iran.

* Barclays is maintaining its 2026 average Brent crude oil price forecast at $100 a barrel though risks are skewing higher.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices settled sharply lower by 4.52% at 277 amid forecasts for milder weather conditions and expectations of weaker near-term demand. Market sentiment remained under pressure after updated weather projections indicated cooler temperatures next week than previously anticipated, reducing expected cooling demand from the power generation sector. Additional weakness came from elevated storage levels and higher-than-expected inventory injections, reinforcing concerns about ample supply availability in the US market. According to the Energy Information Administration, US energy firms injected 101 billion cubic feet of natural gas into storage during the week ended May 15, exceeding market expectations of a 95-bcf build and remaining above the five-year average increase of 92 bcf for the same period. Total gas inventories increased to 2.290 trillion cubic feet, standing 2.3% above last year’s levels and 6.5% higher than the five-year seasonal average, highlighting comfortable supply conditions ahead of the summer demand season. Further pressure also emerged from softer LNG export activity. Gas flows to major US LNG export terminals declined from a record 18.8 bcfd in April to around 17.0 bcfd in May due to seasonal maintenance at facilities including Golden Pass LNG and Freeport LNG. However, some downside remained limited after reports indicated that three US LNG cargoes are expected to arrive in China during June, marking the first such shipments since February 2025. Longer-term fundamentals remained mixed as the EIA projected US dry gas production to rise to record highs of 110.6 bcfd in 2026 and 115.0 bcfd in 2027, while domestic demand is expected to decline slightly next year before recovering in 2027. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation as open interest declined 14.12% to 10,666 lots while prices dropped by 13.1 rupees. Natural gas is holding support at 272.4, with further downside likely towards 267.8, while resistance is seen at 285.4 and 293.8 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 267.8-293.8.

* Natural gas slid on forecasts for milder weather and less demand next week than previously expected.

* EIA report showed energy firms injected 101 bcf of gas into storage, above market expectations for a 95-bcf build.

* Flows to major US LNG export facilities declined from a monthly record of 18.8 bcfd in April to around 17.0 bcfd so far in May.

Copper

Copper prices settled marginally lower by 0.03% at 1,344.7 as investors closely monitored developments surrounding ongoing US-Iran peace negotiations and broader global economic sentiment. Market movement remained largely range-bound despite mixed fundamentals, with cautious trading driven by uncertainty over geopolitical developments and their potential impact on industrial demand and global growth expectations. Fundamentally, China’s refined copper production increased 1.6% year-on-year in April to 1.27 million metric tonnes, reflecting strong domestic smelting activity. However, concerns over tightening supply conditions continued to support prices. Available copper inventories in London Metal Exchange warehouses declined to a ten-week low of 275,525 tonnes, while significant cancellations for delivery highlighted firm physical demand. The Yangshan copper premium also remained elevated at $73 per tonne, indicating continued strong import appetite in China despite expectations that seasonal demand could soften during the upcoming off-season. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories registered their first weekly increase since mid-March, rising 1.6%, suggesting some easing in immediate domestic tightness. Supply-side risks remained a major supportive factor for copper prices. Production in Chile declined nearly 6% during the first quarter of 2026, while lower copper concentrate availability and operational challenges at key mines such as Grasberg and Kamoa continued to create uncertainty. China’s refined copper imports are also expected to rise further in the second quarter due to strong infrastructure demand and temporary smelter maintenance reducing local output. The International Copper Study Group projected the global refined copper market to shift into surplus during 2026 and 2027 due to slower demand growth and higher secondary supply, although ongoing geopolitical risks could still disrupt balances. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation as open interest declined sharply by 20.89% to 6,883 lots while prices slipped by 0.35 rupees. Copper is holding support at 1,338.6, with further downside likely towards 1,332.3, while resistance is seen at 1,352.6 and 1,360.3 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1332.3-1360.3.

* Copper steadied as investors weighed shifting headlines around U.S.-Iran peace talks.

* China's refined copper production in April rose 1.60% year-on-year to 1.27 million metric tons.

* LME available copper stocks at 10 – week low after massive cancellations

Zinc

Zinc prices settled higher by 0.68% at 369.95, supported by tightening global supply conditions following recent disruptions at major zinc processing facilities. Market sentiment strengthened after Nexa Resources temporarily suspended operations at its Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru, the largest zinc smelter in Latin America, after a fire damaged key infrastructure. The disruption followed operational setbacks at Glencore-owned Kazzinc facilities in Kazakhstan, where production was reduced after an explosion impacted zinc and lead operations. These incidents intensified concerns over already tight refined zinc supplies globally. Fundamentally, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group had earlier projected a 19,000-ton deficit in the refined zinc market for the current year, and the latest disruptions further reinforced supply-side risks. Zinc inventories on the London Metal Exchange remained critically low at 111,250 tonnes, equivalent to less than three days of global consumption, highlighting limited available stocks. However, the cash LME zinc contract continued trading at a discount to the three-month contract, suggesting that immediate physical tightness has not yet fully emerged. Supportive macroeconomic signals also came from China, where authorities reiterated plans to maintain accommodative monetary policies and strengthen support for domestic demand and technological investment. However, upside remained capped after Swedish miner Boliden confirmed that production at its Garpenberg zinc mine would resume during the second quarter. In addition, Japan’s Mitsui Mining and Smelting announced plans to increase refined zinc production by 3.2% during the first half of the 2026/27 financial year. The global zinc market surplus narrowed sharply to 32,700 tonnes in March from 58,700 tonnes in February, indicating improving market balance conditions. Goldman Sachs expects only a small surplus this year, although the bank forecasts tighter conditions beyond 2027 as mine supply growth slows. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering as open interest declined 4.04% to 1,803 lots while prices gained 2.5 rupees. Zinc is holding support at 368.7, with further downside likely towards 367.3, while resistance is seen at 371.4 and 372.7 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 367.3-372.7.

* Zinc gains supported by tightening supply conditions following recent disruptions.

* Zinc stocks on the LME are at 111,250 tons, equivalent to less than three days of global consumption.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.5% from last Friday.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices settled marginally lower by 0.21% at 385.95 as profit booking emerged after recent gains, while rising inventories in China weighed on sentiment. Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased 1.4% from the previous week, indicating some easing in immediate domestic tightness. However, downside remained limited due to continued supply disruptions in the Middle East, where geopolitical tensions linked to the Iran conflict continue to impact regional smelting operations. The Gulf region accounts for nearly 9% of global aluminium smelting capacity, and reduced output has significantly tightened global supply availability. Strong backwardation in aluminium futures continued reflecting tight physical market conditions. The premium of the LME cash aluminium contract over the three-month forward contract remained near 19-year highs around $84 per tonne, signaling expectations of continued supply shortages. According to the International Aluminium Institute, primary aluminium production in the Gulf region declined sharply by 35% year-on-year in April to 330,000 metric tonnes, marking the weakest output level in more than a decade. Several major institutions maintained bullish long-term price forecasts. CRU and Bank of America both expect aluminium prices to remain above $4,000 per metric tonne during the coming quarters due to persistent supply deficits and tightening inventories. Citi also projected global inventories could fall to historically low levels over the next six to twelve months, with the market expected to remain in a substantial deficit despite slower demand growth. Meanwhile, China continued reporting strong production and trade activity. Chinese aluminium output increased 3.1% year-on-year in April, while exports surged 15% as higher overseas prices and supply disruptions boosted international demand. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation as open interest declined 10.1% to 1,886 lots while prices fell by 0.8 rupees. Aluminium is holding support at 384, with further downside likely towards 381.9, while resistance is seen at 388.7 and 391.3 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 381.9-391.3.

* Aluminium dropped as inventories in SHFE warehouses rose 1.4% from last Friday.

* Global primary aluminium output in April fell 2.1% year on year to 5.922 million tonnes - IAI

* Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports fell to 249,500 metric tons at the end of April, down about 10.8% from the previous month

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled marginally higher by 0.2% at 16,230 amid continued tightness in physical supplies across major producing regions. Arrivals in key mandis of Maharashtra and Telangana remained below normal despite the peak marketing season, creating an immediate supply squeeze in the domestic market. Quality concerns due to moisture damage and rhizome rot in low-lying cultivation areas reduced the availability of premium “Double Polished” export-quality turmeric. In major trading hubs such as Sangli and Nizamabad, farmers and stockists continued holding back quality stocks in anticipation of higher prices, with premium “Salem Fali” turmeric reportedly trading near ?20,000 per quintal. However, gains remained limited as fresh arrivals accelerated in several mandis, temporarily increasing spot market supplies. Farmers in Telangana and Maharashtra increased stock liquidation to generate funds for upcoming Kharif sowing activities, while traders who accumulated stocks at lower levels earlier in the season engaged in profit booking. Additional pressure also emerged from increased arrivals of late-harvested high-moisture turmeric, which led to aggressive discounting for average-quality produce. Fundamentally, market sentiment remained supported by tightening carry-forward stocks, estimated at around 15 lakh bags compared to more than 20 lakh bags last season. Export demand also remained stable, supported by growing inquiries for IPM-certified turmeric from European buyers and active procurement from Bangladesh for finger-variety turmeric. The Union Agriculture Ministry’s downward revision of production estimates to 1.140 million tonnes further strengthened bullish sentiment. Concerns regarding a potentially below-normal 2026 monsoon are also beginning to add weather-related risk premiums into long-term price expectations. Export data showed turmeric shipments during April-February 2026 rose 1% year-on-year to 163,336 tonnes, while imports declined sharply by 40% during the same period, indicating improving domestic market fundamentals. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying as open interest increased 0.45% to 20,060 lots while prices gained 32 rupees. Turmeric is holding support at 16,122, with further downside likely towards 16,014, while resistance is seen at 16,334 and 16,438 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16014-16438.

* Turmeric gained as arrivals have remained lower than normal for this peak season, creating an immediate supply squeeze.

* Ongoing quality issues due to moisture (rhizome rot) in low-lying fields have reduced the availability of "Double Polished" export-quality turmeric.

* Farmers are liquidating stocks more rapidly  to raise liquidity for upcoming Kharif sowing expenses, increasing the immediate supply.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15562.75 Rupees gained by 0.08 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled lower by 1.06% at 19,510 as rising arrivals from major producing regions in Rajasthan increased market supplies and eased earlier concerns regarding tight availability. Favorable weather conditions across North-West India accelerated harvesting activities, resulting in faster crop arrivals and creating a temporary supply surplus in physical markets. Farmers also increased stock liquidation to generate liquidity ahead of the upcoming Kharif sowing season, maintaining steady selling pressure across key mandis. Daily arrivals at the Unjha mandi stabilized around 28,500 bags, highlighting ample near-term supply conditions and weighing on prices. However, downside in prices remained limited due to concerns regarding crop quality and lower overall production estimates. Recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan reportedly damaged standing crops during the harvest stage, raising concerns over reduced availability of premium “A-grade” and “Sortex” quality jeera. Unseasonal rainfall also delayed drying and processing activities in some producing regions, temporarily affecting the movement of quality supplies into the market. Fundamentally, market sentiment remained supported by lower production expectations. Industry estimates suggest total cumin production in India may decline to around 90–92 lakh bags this season compared to nearly 1.10 crore bags last year. Gujarat production is estimated at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan output is projected at 48–50 lakh bags. Lower acreage, reduced yields, and blight disease outbreaks in parts of Gujarat further impacted crop quality and output. Internationally, production concerns in competing exporting countries including China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan also remained supportive for long-term market sentiment. Market participants are additionally expecting stronger Chinese buying interest during the coming months for inventory replenishment. Export data showed jeera exports during April-February 2026 declined 15% year-on-year to 166,536 tonnes, although February exports rose 39% compared to January, indicating improving monthly export demand. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation as open interest declined 3.19% to 10,476 lots while prices dropped by 210 rupees. Jeera is holding support at 19,350, with further downside likely towards 19,190, while resistance is seen at 19,730 and 19,950 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19190-19950.

* Jeera dropped as fresh crop arrivals have increased, effectively neutralizing the supply tightness feared earlier.

* Favorable weather conditions across North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting faster than expected.

* Farmers are actively offloading stocks  to generate liquidity for the upcoming Kharif planting season.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19928.1 Rupees dropped by -0.37 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views