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Market Update

Nifty : 25,461.00 55.70 (0.22%)

Sensex : 83,432.89 193.42 (0.23%)

* Equity benchmarks Nifty and Sensex recovered in the final hour of trade, ending in positive territory ahead of the anticipated US-India trade deal expected to be announced next week. US President Donald Trump stated that his administration would begin sending letters to trade partners on Friday, outlining new unilateral tariff rates to be implemented from August 1.

* Markets traded in a narrow range throughout the session. The Nifty rose by 55 points, or 0.2%, to close at 25,461 after touching an intra-day low of 25,331. Sector-wise, indices for defense, oil & gas, real estate, select IT, and pharmaceuticals gained around 1% each.

* Paper stocks rallied, with names like Emami Paper, JK Paper, Orient Paper, and West Coast Paper surging up to 10%, following reports that the government may tighten regulations on low-cost paper imports. Meanwhile, the Nifty Metal Index dipped 0.5% amid expectations that the US Federal Reserve might delay interest rate cuts due to strong June jobs data and a strengthening US Dollar Index.

* Defense stocks such as Data Patterns, BEL, BEML, and BDL rose up to 2% following government approval of defense projects worth Rs.1.05 lakh crore to promote domestic defense manufacturing.

* IT majors including Infosys, Mphasis, Wipro, and HCL Tech advanced about 1% each ahead of TCS’s Q1 results, scheduled for July 10.

Technical Outlook:

* Nifty index opened on a positive note around the 25430 zone but witnessed profit booking through the mid-day, dragging the index to an intraday low of 25331. However, in latter part of the day, the index staged an impressive recovery of over 100 points, closing near the day’s high. While some pressure is still visible at higher levels, support remains intact near the 25300 zone.

* On the daily chart, Nifty formed a Hammer candlestick with a pronounced lower shadow, reflecting renewed buying interest from lower levels and signaling that bulls are unwilling to relinquish control. On the weekly timeframe, the index formed a bearish candle, yet the extended lower wick suggests that bulls aggressively defended the support zones. Now it has to cross and hold above 25500 zones, for an up move towards 25650 and then 25800 else weakness can be seen towards 25300 then 25222 zones.

Derivative Outlook:

* Nifty future closed positive with gains of 0.17% at 25552 levels. Positive setup seen in BPCL, IGL, IOC, MGL, Glenmark, Biocon, LTF, Mphasis, Ambuja cements, Hindustan Petroleum, Infosys, AU Bank and AB Capital while weakness in OIL, APL Apollo, Lodha, IREDA, Sonacoms, Chambal Fertilizers, Jindal Stainless, Bank of Baroda, Sun Pharma and United Spirites.

* On option front, Maximum Call OI is at 25500 then 26000 strike while Maximum Put OI is at 25400 then 25200 strike. Call writing is seen at 25400 then 26000 strike while Put writing is seen at 25300 then 25200 strike. Option data suggests a broader trading range in between 25000 to 26000 zones while an immediate range between 25300 to 25700 levels.

Global Market Update

* European Market Update - -- European market decline up to 1%. President Donald Trump said his administration will start sending out letters to trading partners on Friday, setting unilateral tariff rates that countries would have to begin paying on Aug. 1.

* Asian Market – Asian shares posted modest gains ahead of a US jobs report, with investors awaiting fresh data after recent prints signaled President Donald Trump’s trade war was hurting the US economy. Japan Index declined 0.5% while Hong Kong and Australia Index gained 0.5% each.

* Commodity - Oil prices are ticking lower in early trade as investors brace for OPEC+'s meeting this weekend, with expectations for another large output hike already factored in. Brent crude slips 0.5% to $68.50 a barrel

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