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• Equity benchmark indices ended lower, with the Nifty slipping below the 24,000 mark and the Sensex shedding nearly 400 points, after the RBI revised its FY26 GDP growth forecast downward by 20bps to 6.5% and shifted its policy stance from 'neutral' to 'accommodative'. Market sentiment was further dampened by rising concerns over a potential global trade war. Caution prevailed among traders ahead of tomorrow's holiday and the Q4 earnings announcement by IT giant TCS.

• Global markets also witnessed widespread declines as investor concerns resurfaced over the lack of progress in U.S.–China trade talks. On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed an additional 54% tariff on Chinese imports, raising the total tariff burden on goods from China to 104%. These new tariffs, which came into effect today and include duties on goods from countries like India, have intensified fears of an escalating trade war and its impact on global economic growth.

• On the domestic front, the RBI's second consecutive 25bps repo rate cut failed to lift investor sentiment, as global trade tensions overshadowed any potential boost from accommodative policy measures. The Nifty fell 136 points (0.60%) to close at 22,399, while the Sensex lost 379 points (0.50%) to end the day at 73,847.

• IT stocks came under pressure ahead of TCS's results, with the Nifty IT Index plunging 2.2%. PSU banks also saw a sharp 2.5% decline due to profit booking, while the Nifty Pharma Index dropped 2% after President Trump signaled plans to introduce steep tariffs on pharmaceuticals. In contrast, FMCG stocks rallied strongly on expectations of robust rural demand, buoyed by Skymet’s forecast of a normal monsoon this year with rainfall projected at 103% of the long-period average (LPA). Cement stocks also saw renewed buying interest, driven by optimism over falling input costs such as petcoke, crude, and coal, which are expected to improve margins. Brent crude prices declined to a 4-year low of $60 per barrel.

• Global indices across Asia, Europe, and the U.S. futures traded lower amid mounting concerns over a global economic slowdown, exacerbated by the fresh round of U.S. tariffs.

Technical Outlook:

• Nifty Index opened negative and remained in the range of the first hour’s candle. It moved in a consolidative band of 100 points for the day and failed to hold above 22450 zones. It took support at 22350 zones and closed with losses of around 140 points. It formed a small bodied bearish candle on the daily frame with longer lower wick which indicated support based buying but upside remains capped due to global tensions and higher volatility.

• Now till it holds below 22500 zones, weakness could be seen towards 22350 then 22222 marks else a hold above 22500 could commence the next leg of rally towards 22700 and 22850 zones.

Derivative Outlook:

• Nifty future closed negative with losses of 1.72% at 22646 levels. Positive setup seen in NBCC, Max Health, HPCL, Britannia Industries, HUL, Pidilite Industries, Indigo, HUDCO, Nestle, Marico, Ambuja Cements, MFSL and IDFC First Bank while weakness in Muthoot Finance, Biocon, MGL, Glenmark, Wipro, Persistent System, Indian Bank, PB Fintech, Auropharma, KPIT Tech and SBIN.

• On option front, Maximum Call OI is at 23500 then 23000 strike while Maximum Put OI is at 22500 then 22000 strike. Call writing is seen at 22400 then 22500 strike while Put writing is seen at 22400 then 22000 strike. Option data suggests a broader trading range in between 21800 to 23000 zones while an immediate range between 22100 to 22700 levels.

• RBI Delivers Second Straight Rate Cut, Slashes Repo by 25 bps to 6% - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday announced its second consecutive rate cut by 25 bps to 6%. The rate-setting panel changed the policy stance to 'accommodative' from 'neutral'. RBI has slashed its growth projection for India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 6.5% for the fiscal year 2026 from 6.7%. The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee anticipates inflation to moderate to 4% in FY26, supported by favorable food prices, offering relief to households.

• Garden Reach Shipbuilders – Company has secured a contract worth Rs490cr from the Geological Survey of India, Government of India.

• Accor, InterGlobe Partner to Build Network of 300 Hotels in India - France's Accor and Indian travel conglomerate InterGlobe Enterprises aim to build a network of 300 hotels in India over the next five years as they seek to create the country's fastest-growing hospitality company

• ITI - Company said that it commenced the work for State Network Operations Center (S-NOC) of the monumental BharatNet Phase-III Project at Solan in Himachal Pradesh in coordination with BSNL.

• Glenmark Pharmaceuticals - NDTV Profit reported that the company initiated a Class II recall of 39 products manufactured at its Pithampur plant. The action follows cGMP violations identified by the US FDA.

• Mahindra Aerostructures secured a significant contract with Airbus Helicopters - Mahindra Aerostructures, a subsidiary of M&M has secured a contract from Airbus Helicopters to manufacture and assemble the main fuselage of the H130 helicopter. This agreement involves Mahindra Aerostructures producing the fuselage assembly and shipping it to Airbus Helicopters' European facilities

• Govt. clears ?63,000 crore deal to buy 26 Rafale Marine fighter jets from France: Report - Government clears mega deal to buy 26 Rafale Marine fighter aircraft from France. The government-to-government deal worth over ?63,000 crore will be signed soon. Indian Navy will get 22 single-seater and four twin-seater aircraft as part of the deal: Government Sources told ANI.

Global Market Update

• European Market – - European stocks slumped on Wednesday as US President Donald Trump’s tariffs took effect, triggering a renewed selloff across global financial markets. UK, Germany and France Index declined up to 2.5% each.

• Asian Market - Asian markets witnessed mixed bag. Tokyo stocks ended lower on Wednesday with the benchmark Nikkei index plunging nearly 4 percent, amid selloff on fears of a global economic slowdown following the U.S. imposition of additional country-specific tariffs, including on Japan. Both China and Hong Kong Index gained nearly 1% each. Taiwan Index dropped 5.8%.

• US Data - FOMC Minutes Meeting and MBA Mortgage Application

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