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Nifty Futures: 24,139.1 (-1.0%), Bank Nifty Futures: 54,724.0 (-1.1%).

Nifty futures commenced Friday’s session on a positive trajectory, supported by gains in Asian equities, as U.S. President Donald Trump's remarks on active trade talks with China, temporarily lifted market sentiment despite conflicting signals from Beijing; however, significant intraday selling pressure was triggered by escalating geopolitical risks due to unprovoked firing at the LoC after the Kashmir terror incident. Despite a late-session recovery, the Nifty index concluded with a substantial 234-point erosion, marking its second consecutive day of losses. Mirroring this bearish trend, Bank Nifty futures experienced a third straight session of depreciation, plummeting by 602 points. Disappointing corporate earnings added to the unease, as many results failed to meet expectations, suppressing confidence. This confluence of negative catalysts pushed the India VIX up by 5.6% to 17.16, signalling heightened investor anxiety. The Indian rupee depreciated seven paise to close at ?85.40 against the USD, reflecting a risk-averse environment in the forex market, with intraday fluctuations from ?85.08 to ?85.65. Nifty futures premium fell to 100 points, down from 126, while Bank Nifty premium dropped from 125 to 60 points.

Global Movers:

US stocks climbed for a fourth day in what was the longest winning run since January. The S&P ended 0.7% up and closed above 5500, while the Nasdaq 100 finished 1.1% higher. A rally in big tech stocks has helped markets recover, even as economic data sends conflicting signals, with consumer sentiment falling to one of its lowest readings on record and long-term inflation expectations surging to the highest in 34 years. In other markets, the VIX fell around 6% which was its fourth straight daily loss, the dollar rose a little, the US 10-year treasury yield continued its slide, bitcoin advanced, gold dropped for the third day in four despite recovering at the close, while nymex oil finished above $63 as hedge funds boosted their net long bets to three-week highs.

Stock Futures:

During the Friday trading session, SBI Life Insurance, Mphasis Ltd, ShriRam Finance, and SBI Cards & Payment experienced notable increases in volume along with greater price volatility. This combination indicates strong market activity and increased investor interest in these stocks.

SBI Life Insurance witnessed a notable 5% intraday rally, its largest single-session gain since mid-August 2024, driven by record trading volumes over the past year. This bullish momentum defied broader market headwinds despite a marginal 0.3% year-on-year increase in Q4FY25 net profit alongside a 5% dip in net premium income. The insurer sustained its market leadership in Individual Rated Premium with a 22.8% share, complemented by a robust 15% growth in Assets Under Management (AUM). SBI Life Insurance saw a Long Addition, evidenced by the price appreciation coupled with a 5.8% surge in open interest, now at 26,456 contracts with a net addition of 1,451 contracts. Options positioning further illustrated elevated engagement, as total call option open interest climbed to 10,132 contracts and put option open interest rose to 5,407 contracts, collectively adding 7,690 contracts on the call side and 3,626 contracts on the put side. Consequently, the put-call ratio adjusted downward to 0.53 from the prior session's 0.73, signifying a shift in market sentiment and positioning at the start of May expiry.

Mphasis Ltd. registered a notable 2.4% intraday climb, culminating in a month-end peak alongside substantial volume turnover. This positive price action ensued following the disclosure of their Q4 fiscal results and the announcement of a ?57 per share dividend for the preceding fiscal year. The company's net earnings expanded by 13.6% to ?446 crore in the March 2025 quarter, contrasting with ?393 crore in the corresponding period of 2024. Revenue also saw an ascent of 9%, reaching ?3,710 crore in the March 2025 quarter compared to ?3,412 crore in the prior year's equivalent quarter. Futures data signals Short Covering, characterized by the price appreciation and a 6.3% contraction in open interest, which now stands at 16,663 contracts following a reduction of 1,116 contracts. An analysis of rollover activity based on open interest shows the April expiry concluding at its highest point in the past twelve expiries, while the price movement exhibited a 2.5% decline, pointing towards short formation and suggesting constrained upward potential for the stock.

ShriRam Finance experienced a steep 6.4% intraday fall, marking its largest single-session value depreciation alongside the highest trading volume observed this month. This sharp decline transpired after the disclosure of its Q4 financials, which revealed a 10% year-on-year expansion in net earnings for Q4 FY25, slightly trailing market consensus. The net interest income for the quarter demonstrated a 13% climb, and Revenue from operations surged by 21% year-on-year. In terms of positioning, there is a Short Addition, characterised by the price decline and a substantial 12.4% increase in open interest. The present futures open interest stands at 43,779 contracts, with a significant single-day addition of 4,811 contracts, equivalent to 3.6 million shares, representing the largest single-day open interest accretion this year. These indicators collectively emphasize a pessimistic perspective on the stock, likely impacted by the fundamental announcements and prevailing market sentiments.

SBI Cards and Payment commenced trading with a gap-down and subsequently experienced a sharp 7.1% value depreciation, marking its largest single-session percentage fall since 2022. This decline was triggered by the fiscal year 2025 earnings disclosure, which indicated a 19% contraction in profit to ?534 crore for the March quarter, primarily due to increased defaults. This news resulted in a Short Addition for SBICard, accompanied by a price decrease and a negligible 0.6% rise in open interest. The current futures open interest is at 18,424 contracts, with a minimal addition of 109 contracts, equating to 87,200 shares, suggesting limited fresh short positions among market participants. Examining option positioning reveals a total open interest of 7,379 contracts in call options and 4,083 contracts in put options, with additions of 3,829 call option contracts and 2,004 put option contracts, yielding a put-call ratio of 0.55. This data indicates traders' strong preference for call options, probably towards writing.

Put-Call Ratio Snapshot:

The Nifty put-call ratio (PCR)fell to 0.87 from 1.03 points, while the Bank Nifty PCR fell from 1.16 to 1.03 points.

Implied Volatility:

Kotak Bank and Oberoi Realty have seen fluctuations in their stock prices, reflected by their high implied volatility rankings. The rise in implied volatility to 32% for Kotak Bank and 48% for Oberoi Realty means options are becoming more expensive, prompting traders to consider risk management strategies to mitigate price fluctuations. In contrast, Titagarh Rail Systems and HDFCLIFE Insurance rank lowest in implied volatility at 4 and 10, with their IVs at 45% and 26%, respectively. This lower volatility suggests their options are relatively more appealing, providing a favourable opportunity for investors looking to take long positions.

Options volume and Open Interest highlights:

Yes Bank and CESC appear to have a positive outlook, as indicated by call-put volume ratios of 3:1 for each. This ratio reflects strong demand for call options, suggesting expectations of rising prices. However, a significant call skew may indicate potential overvaluation. On the other hand, Interglobe Aviation and Astral Ltd report a put-call volume ratio of 2:1. This increase in put volume suggests a cautious sentiment amidst concerns about possible price declines. Still, excessively high put volumes could imply an oversold market, presenting possible contrarian buying opportunities. In terms of positions, Syngene International shows considerable open interest in both call and put options, along with Tata Technologies leading in call options and HFCL Ltd in put options, highlighting potential price volatility that could serve as resistance or push prices higher. (This data considers only those stock options that saw a minimum of 500 contracts traded on the day for both calls and puts).

Participant-wise Open Interest Net Activity:

Friday's open interest activity among participants in index futures saw a notable accumulation of 3,330 contracts by clients, contrasted sharply with a substantial reduction of 10,386 contracts by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIS), suggesting potentially contrasting outlooks on near-term index direction. Proprietary traders, demonstrating bullish sentiment, significantly augmented their holdings by 10,292 contracts. Conversely, the stock futures segment witnessed a considerable unwinding of 37,446 contracts by clients, compared against a significant long build-up of 15,496 contracts by FIIs, indicating a potential sector-specific optimism from this investor category. Proprietary desks also exhibited a positive bias, adding 7,052 contracts.

Securities in Ban for Trade Date 28-April-2025: NIL.

Nifty

Bank Nifty

Stocks with High IVR:

Stocks with Low IVR:

Stocks With High IVP:

Stocks With Low IVP:

Stocks With High Call Volume To Put Volume

Stocks With High Put Volume To Call Volume

Call Open Interest Relative to Record High

Put Open Interest Relative to Record High

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