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Nifty : 24981

Technical Outlook

Day that was…

* The Indian equity benchmark closed on a positive note and settled at 24,980, up 103 points amid positive sentiment from GST reform hopes and global cues that lifted investor sentiment. Both Midcap and small cap indices closed positive up 0.97% and 0.70%, respectively. Sectorally, Barring Pharma all indices closed in green, where Energy, Telecom and Textiles outperformed.

Technical Outlook:

* The Indian equity benchmark ended higher on Tuesday, extending its rally for the fourth consecutive session. The index closed near the key psychological 25,000 mark, driven primarily by gains in heavyweight stocks like Reliance Industries, and Tata Motors. The daily price action resulted in an inside bar characterized by both upper and lower shadows, suggesting volatility but with bullish undertones as it closed near the higher end of the day’s range.

* Over the past two sessions, Nifty has been encountering minor resistance around the 25,000 level (closing basis), which coincides with a previous gap zone. Going forward, a decisive move and follow-through strength above 25,000 could open the door for an extension of the ongoing pullback rally toward 25,300. Failure to do so would result in consolidation in the 25000-24500 range amid stock specific action. Hence, focus should be on buying quality stocks on dips backed by strong earnings as strong support is placed at 24500 zone.

* Despite recent tariff headwinds, the Nifty has managed to consistently hold above the 24,500 mark on a weekly closing basis, suggesting that much of the negative sentiment surrounding tariff developments has likely been priced in. Looking ahead, investor focus remains firmly on signals from the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium, particularly comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. A dovish tone from the Fed could provide a positive trigger for global equity markets, including the Nifty. Hence, focus should be on accumulating quality stocks backed by strong earnings in a staggered manner.

Key monitorable to watch out for in current volatile scenario:

* 1.Development on India-US trade tariff negotiations

* 2.Jackson Hole and U.S. Fed minutes (August 21-23)

* 3.U.S. Dollar index retreated from past two years breakdown area of 100, indicating corrective bias while crude oil pared last week's gains and resumed downward momentum

Nifty Bank : 55865

Technical Outlook

Day that was:

* The Bank Nifty ended the day on a positive note, settling at 55,865 up 023%. The Nifty Pvt Bank index outperformed the benchmark, ending the day at 27,037 with a gain of 0.42%.

Technical Outlook:

* Bank Nifty formed a bullish candle on the daily chart. The index opened within the previous session’s range and, after an initial downward move, found support near the prior session's low. This suggests buying interest and demand emerging at lower levels.

* Bank Nifty opened the week with a gap-up and has since maintained levels above its recent inside bar range breakout, which reaffirms the index’s positive bias and sets the stage for further upward traction. Going forward, a decisive move and follow-through strength above 56000 level would further strengthen momentum and pave the way for the next leg of the uptrend towards the 56,400-56600 marks. Notably, the weekly stochastic oscillator has registered a bullish crossover from the oversold zone, reinforcing prospects of a near-term trend reversal.

* A key point to note is that despite tariff-related concerns, Bank Nifty managed to sustain above the 54,900 mark on a weekly closing basis. Going ahead, market attention will remain on cues from the Jackson Hole symposium, where remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell could act as a pivotal sentiment driver. A dovish commentary from the Fed is likely to bolster global risk appetite, serving as a positive trigger for Bank Nifty as well. From a technical perspective, the 54,900 level holds significance as it aligns with the confluence of the 100-day EMA and the rising trendline support in place since mid-April 2025. This zone is expected to remain a strong demand area, and any short-term pullback should be interpreted as an opportunity to accumulate.

* Structurally Since April, intermediate corrections have remained shallow while the index has consistently held above its 100-day EMA. Moreover, over the past eleven weeks, the index has retraced 50% of the preceding up move from 51863 to 57614 (11%) in the previous six weeks, indicating a slower pace of retracement with a robust price structure, that augurs well for the next leg of the uptrend.

* PSU Bank Index relatively outperformed the benchmark and closed higher. The index has retraced close to the 38.2% level of its preceding 20% rally from 6,052 to 7,250 and rebounded above 7,000 marks, suggesting renewed strength, while maintaining this momentum could open the way for another leg higher toward 7,250. While the Bank Nifty consolidates within 3% of its all-time high, PSU Banks continue to lag significantly, trading 12% below their peak. This presents a potential catch-up opportunity for the sector

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