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Ferrous prices soften amid seasonal weakness; non-ferrous prices remain firm in Jul’25

* The domestic steel market continued to remain under pressure in Jul’25, with steel prices drifting lower MoM. Domestic HRC prices dipped INR1,500/t to INR49,500/t, and rebar prices softened to INR47,750/t (from INR53,100/t in Jun’25), driven by a monsoon-led slowdown in construction activities and demand.

* According to the Joint Plant Committee (JPC), crude steel production remained flat MoM (+11% YoY) at 13.6mt and finished steel production rose 1% MoM (+11% YoY) to 13mt in Jul’25.

* In Jul’25, India steel imports dipped 36% MoM and 65% YoY to 0.28mt, led by a 12% safeguard duty. Meanwhile, exports increased 9% MoM and 64% YoY to 0.49mt.

* Channel checks indicated that leading domestic steel producers have raised the prices for HRC/CRC by INR1,000-2,000/t for Aug’25. Further, India's export HRC prices in Aug’25 rose USD5/t, supported by improved global market sentiment and higher Chinese export offers. Additionally, the rebar prices also jumped INR2,000/t in Aug’25 amid demand recovery and the gradual arrival of the festive season. Average Chinese flat steel prices for Jul’25 stood at USD458/t (vs. USD447/t in Jun’25), driven by demand recovery, production cuts, and rising input costs.

* Prices for non-ferrous commodities remained stable MoM during Jul’25, where the copper price stood flat MoM at USD9,780/t, while aluminum and zinc prices rose ~4% each to USD2,600/t and USD2,750/t, respectively, during Jul’25.

* Alumina and nickel prices stood at USD370/t and USD15,030/t (flat MoM) and remained capped by global oversupply during Jul’25. The nickel inventories rose 195kt (vs. ~40kt last year).

Input costs continue to remain stable in Jul’25

* In Jul’25, NMDC took a price cut of INR600/t for lumps and INR500/t for fines (vs. a price cut of INR140/t in Jun’25 for both lumps and fines), led by weak demand from pellet, sponge, and steel markets.

* NMDC took a hike of INR400/t for lumps and fines during Aug’25, supported by domestic steel price recovery.

* Premium hard coking coal prices (CNF Paradip, India) remained range-bound at USD180-200/t, driven by weak demand globally. Average coking coal prices in Jul’25 stood flat MoM at USD193/t.

* Domestic coal production was down by 12% YoY to ~65mt (achieved ~80% of its monthly target), while Coal India’s production dipped 16% YoY to 46mt in Jul’25. Domestic coal dispatches declined 9% YoY to 74mt as dispatches to the power sector fell 10% YoY to 59mt in Jul’25.

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