Metals Monthly : Oct`25 - Ferrous prices remain subdued amid demand slowdown; Non-ferrous prices surge on tighter inventories by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
Oct’25 – Ferrous prices remain subdued amid demand slowdown; Non-ferrous prices surge on tighter inventories
* Monthly average rebar (BF-route) prices remained flat MoM at INR47,000/t in Oct’25. Price hikes implemented by mills early in the month have been rolled back due to the muted offtake.
* HRC monthly average prices declined INR1,000/t MoM to INR48,200/t amid sluggish demand and higher inventory in the channel.
* China’s average flat steel prices have softened to USD466/t (-3% MoM and - 4% from Aug’25 peak), at par with Mar’25 levels, caused by rising inventory to 3.1mt (+8% MoM) in Oct’25. China’s landed steel prices in India remain at ~12% premium to India’s domestic HRC prices.
* According to the Joint Plant Committee (JPC), crude steel production rose 3% MoM (+9% YoY) to 14mt in Oct’25, while finished steel production stood at 13.4mt (+2% MoM and +10% YoY).
* In Oct’25, India’s steel imports declined 30% MoM and 56% YoY to 0.46mt. This was driven by strict trade norms, such as stringent BIS regulations, safeguard duty, and anti-dumping duty. Meanwhile, exports rose 10% MoM and 45% YoY to 0.64mt on account of active restocking in the EU ahead of CBAM implementation in Jan’26.
* Channel checks indicated that steel prices have reached a bottom and are expected to recover in the coming months. However, the inventory buildup at both mill and channel levels is likely to cap the upside.
* Prices for non-ferrous commodities increased MoM in Oct’25, with copper, aluminum, and zinc prices surging 7%, 5%, and 7% MoM to USD10,700/t, USD2,780/t, and USD3,150/t, respectively, on account of declining inventory levels. Meanwhile, lead/nickel prices remained flat MoM at USD1,970/t and INR15,100/t, respectively, in Oct’25.
* Alumina prices continued to remain under pressure at USD320/t (-5% MoM) amid factors like easing supply, with shifts in the supply-demand landscape.
Coking coal on steady rise; Iron ore prices ease amid muted demand
* The steady rise of premium hard coking coal prices, primarily driven by active demand from Chinese steelmakers amid extreme weather conditions, led to subdued domestic mining. The average premium hard coking coal prices (CNF Paradip, India) in Oct’25 stood at USD208/t, rising 2% MoM.
* In Oct’25, NMDC took an INR500/t price cut for fines and INR550/t for lumps on account of subdued demand, despite limited supply. For Nov’25, NMDC kept its iron ore prices largely unchanged.
* Domestic coal production declined 9% YoY to ~77mt (achieved ~98% of the monthly target), while Coal India production declined 10% YoY to 56mt in Oct’25. Domestic coal dispatches declined 5% YoY to 80mt in Oct’25. Dispatches to the power sector remained subdued, declining 25% YoY to 52mt, broadly offset by increased dispatches to the non-power sector by 81% YoY to 29mt in Oct’25.
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