MCX Silver July is expected to rise towards Rs 253,000-Rs 256,000 level as long as it stays above Rs 245,000 level - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
• Spot Gold is likely to rise towards $4400 level on weakness in dollar and softening of US treasury yields. Further, prices may rally as US and Iran agreed to end war, which may restore oil flows through the Persian Gulf, easing fears about persistent inflation and potential rate hike by US Federal Reserve. Investors will keep an eye on agreement details and both nations has to negotiate on permanent truce. US and Iran are scheduled to sign an interim deal in Switzerland on Friday. Meanwhile, sharp upside may be capped as investors will remain cautious ahead of US Federal Reserve monetary policy, first policy meet under the leadership of Kevin Warsh. Central bank is most likely to keep policy untouched but more focus will be on statements and dot-plot to get clarity on interest rate trajectory. Additionally, any discussion on reducing the size of the Fed's balance sheet will draw attention. MCX Gold Aug is expected to rise towards Rs 154,500- Rs155,500 level as long as it stays above Rs 151,500 level
• MCX Silver July is expected to rise towards Rs 253,000- Rs 256,000 level as long as it stays above Rs 245,000 level.
Base Metal Outlook
• Copper prices are expected to trade with positive bias on weak dollar and optimistic global market sentiments. Further, prices may rally on ongoing concerns about US import tariffs and persistent decline in inventory at LME registered warehouses. Meanwhile, sharp upside may be capped as investors will remain cautious ahead of slew of economic data from major economies and major central banks including US Fed and BOE monetary policy decision. Market focus will also be on whether the peace deal will ease their inflation concerns and influence near-term monetary policies
• MCX Copper June is expected to rise towards Rs 1350 level as long as it stays above Rs 1325 level. A break above Rs 1350 level prices may be pushed towards Rs 1355- Rs1360 level
• MCX Aluminum June is expected to rise towards Rs 360- Rs 362 level as long as its stays above Rs 353 level. MCX Zinc June is likely to face stiff resistance near Rs 371 level and slip towards Rs 364 - Rs 361 level.
Energy Outlook
• NYMEX Crude oil is likely to trade with negative bias on expectation of improvement in supply from Middle East as preliminary agreement between US and Iran to end war may re-open Strait of Hormuz soon. Further, US President Donald Trump said it could reopen on Friday, easing critical energy supply concerns. Further, prices may dip on reports that U.S. will allow Iran to immediately begin selling oil and fuel under the deal, additional Iranian oil reaching markets would weigh on prices. Furthermore, other factors that may weigh on oil prices are worries over weak demand from China and U.S. calls for peace between Russia and Ukraine. Meanwhile, sharp fall in prices may be cushioned as Israel kept himself away from latest US-Iran agreement, adding uncertainty. Furthermore, investors will remain cautious ahead of EIA weekly inventory data, to gauge demand. MCX Crude oil July is likely to face stiff resistance near Rs 7580 level and slip towards Rs 7000-Rs 6900 level
• MCX Natural gas June is expected to rise towards Rs 315- Rs 320 level as long as it stays above Rs 295 level.
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