MCX Natural gas Dec is expected to rise further towards Rs 435 level as long as it stays above Rs 410 level - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
* Spot Gold is likely to trade with the negative bias and slip back towards $4050 level on strong dollar and rise in US treasury yields. Further, prices may slip as FOMC meeting minutes showed policymakers were more divided than usual, favoring of keeping interest rates steady for the remainder of the year. Moreover, job data for October and November will not come before Fed policy meeting, forcing traders to cut bets on interest rate cut next month. As per CME FedWatch tool traders are now pricing almost 33% chance of a rate cut in December, down from about 50% a day ago. Additionally, all eyes will be on September’s monthly jobs report. Data is likely to show that employers added 50,000 jobs
* MCX Gold Dec is expected to slip back towards Rs 121,500 level as long as it stays below Rs 124,600 level. A break below Rs 121,500 will open doors for Rs 120,700 level
* MCX Silver Dec is expected to slip towards Rs 152,000-Rs 151,000 level as long as it stays below Rs 158,000 level
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to trade with a negative bias on strong dollar and rise in copper inventories at LME registered warehouses. Moreover, investors will remain cautious ahead of key economic data from US to get insight into Federal Reserve policy path. US government shutdown has hindered critical data collection, making job difficult for the BLS to release the data at earliest. Lack of information on the state of economy before meeting will make job more difficult for the Fed. Investors are reducing bets on interest rate cut next month, hampering demand outlook. Meanwhile, China left benchmark lending rates unchanged for the 6 th consecutive month in November
* MCX Copper Nov is expected to slip towards Rs 993 level as long as it stays below Rs1008 level. A break below Rs 993 level may open doors for Rs 989-Rs 985 level
* MCX Aluminum Nov is expected to slip towards Rs 262 level as long as it stays below Rs 266 level. MCX Zinc Nov is likely to face stiff resistance near Rs 305 level and slip back towards Rs 299 level
Energy Outlook
* Crude oil is likely to trade with negative bias and slip further towards $58.50 level on strong dollar and ease in geopolitical tension. Further, reports indicated that the U.S. is again trying to push to end war in Ukraine and has drafted a framework for it. As per media sources draft proposes Ukraine giving up territory and some weapons. End of war between Russia and Ukraine may pave way for more Russian oil flows, raising concerns over oversupply. Moreover, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak denied that the sanctions were harming oil production, and said Russia will reach its OPEC+ production quota by the end of this year or early next year. Additionally, as per EIA report weekly gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected, signaling weak demand. MCX Crude oil Dec is likely to slip towards Rs 5100 level as long as it stays below Rs 5400 level.
* MCX Natural gas Dec is expected to rise further towards Rs 435 level as long as it stays above Rs 410 level.
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