MCX Crude oil is likely to rise towards 6920 levels as long as it trades above 6670 levels - icici Direct
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Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
* Spot gold is likely to hold the support near $2180 levels and rise towards $2200 levels amid expectation of correction in dollar and softening of US treasury yields. US yields and dollar may move south on expectation of lower inflation figures, which may support Fed move to start cutting rates this year. Moreover, investors will remain cautious ahead of slew of economic data from US to gauge economic health and get clues on potential timing of first rate cut. As per CME FedWatch tool traders are now pricing in more than 58% probability that Fed will begin cutting rates in June. Moreover, demand for safe haven may increase on mounting tension in Middle East and eastern Europe.
* MCX Gold April prices is likely to rise towards 66,700 level as long as it stays above 66,000 levels
* MCX Silver May is expected to follow gold and rise back towards 75,500 level as long as it sustains above 74,100 level.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to trade with the negative bias as market participants await further detail on plans by Chinese smelters to cut production. Additionally, investors will remain cautious ahead of data from major economies to gauge economic health of the countries. Furthermore, investors are still worried about China's troubled and debtladen property sector. Meanwhile, sharp downside may be cushioned on expectation of correction in dollar and decline in LME inventories
* MCX Copper is expected to move south towards 754 level as long as it stays below 765 level. A break below 754 would open doors for 750 levels
* Aluminum is expected to slip back towards 206 level as long it remains below 209 level
Energy Outlook
* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to rise further towards $82.50 levels on concerns over supply disruption due to ongoing geopolitical tension in eastern Europe and Middle East. Additionally, major central banks flagged a potential rate cut later in this year, supportive for economic growth. Meanwhile, sharp upside may be capped as US crude oil and gasoline inventories rose unexpectedly last week driven by a rise in crude imports and sluggish gasoline demand. Moreover, investors will remain cautious ahead of OPEC+ meeting scheduled next week, where group is unlikely to make any changes in oil output policy
* MCX Crude oil is likely to rise towards 6920 levels as long as it trades above 6670 levels.
* MCX Natural gas April is expected to slip further towards 140 levels as long as it stays below 150 levels ahead of EIA natural gas inventories
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